Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.10
We have a normal sprawling slate for Tuesday but the bad news is the pitching selection is just not all that great. The lone bona fide ace in Max Scherzer and he’s sure to be very chalky, but the options past that is pretty scattered. We have some work to do to find our pitchers in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.10 so let’s get moving to set our foundation for green screens!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.10 – Main Targets
Max Scherzer
Much like last night, I’m not going to spend the most time here because Mad Max is in a tier of his own by a long shot tonight. Philly does only strike out 23% of the time but Houston is only at 20% and it didn’t matter to Scherzer last time out as he racked up 10 strikeouts. Mad Max could be re-energized in a playoff chase and that’s bad news for offenses considering he has a 34.5% K rate and a 16% swinging-strike rate. The 0.89 WHIP would be the best mark Scherzer has ever put up in his career and neither side of the plate is above a .270 wOBA. The Philly lineup projects to be balanced with four lefties and four righties and as far as cash goes, Scherzer is locked in. Even in GPP, it’s hard to see on the surface the pitcher that can match his upside.
Note – A lot of the high-priced pitchers are either severely overpriced or in bad spots, meaning I’m likely to go bargain hunting. Aaron Nola, Alex Wood, and Sonny Gray are up against difficult offenses and then Logan Gilbert and Ross Stripling are priced out of play. All of these pitchers have flashed upside but are far too unstable to be paying what DK is asking.
Eduardo Rodriguez
Tampa has been hot lately against lefties but generally this season they have been a liability, flirting with bottom-five marks in all of our offensive categories. They are also still hovering around 24% for the K rate so they can be had in that regard. E-Rod catches my eye for GPP because he’s been one of the unluckier pitchers this season. He’s sporting an ugly 5.22 ERA but the xFIP is 3.30 to go with a K rate of 28.9% and a hard-hit rate of just 28%. The 11.9% swinging-strike rate is in line with every other season, so it’s fairly easy to believe the ERA is bloated when considering his metrics. The HR/9 is 1.07 to the right side of the plate along with a 3.29 xFIP and he’s projected to face five of them. If he does face four lefties, the K rate jumps up to over 30%. His main two pitches are over a 29.5% whiff rate and the range of outcomes is wide, so we’re only talking GPP here.
Carlos Carrasco
It should tell you a lot that Carrasco is in the mix since he’s not even hit 65 pitches in either start yet (but should continue to build up). He’s put some solid metrics on paper through the first 8.1 IP on the year with a 26.5% K rate, 50% ground ball rate, and a FIP/xFIP combo under 3.00. The swinging-strike rate really catches your eye at 16.7% even in a small sample size. Carrasco has been mixing up his pitches but they all have a whiff rate over 23.5% and the slider has been especially good with a .152 wOBA and 40.9% whiff rate. The salary is still high since his pitch limit will likely be around 75 at most, so I would still be cautious.
Casey Mize
Anytime the Orioles face a righty pitcher, I’m at least taking a look. Mize does appear to be on a soft pitch count for the rebuilding Tigers in that 85 or so pitches is likely the most we get. Mize is not a strikeout artist at this juncture of his career at only 19.2% but the WHIP is down to 1.13 from 1.48 in 2020 and he’s generating a 50% ground ball rate. I don’t believe it to be a coincidence that Mize just scored over 19 DK points against this Baltimore offense since he’s holding the right side of the plate to a .284 wOBA, 0.86 HR/9, and a 25.7% hard-hit rate. A large part of those numbers appears to come from the slider, which is easily his primary pitch to the right side. He’s thrown it to righties 342 times out of 484 on the season and it has only given up a .243 wOBA with a .30.5% whiff rate. The Orioles are top 12 in K rate against righty pitching and sit in the bottom-five in OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. He’s one of the better bargains on the evening.
Starting Rotation Special
It’s been a hot minute since we had a special (I guess we could have made Austin Gomber that man Saturday but I digress) and this one is a BIG RISK. This player has thrown exactly 0.2 IP in the majors and he got totally wrecked with here walks, zero strikeouts, and seven runs allowed. That start came against this same team but that worries me very little. He’s a lefty and down in AAA this season, he’s shown a K rate of 36% and a 2.28 xFIP throughout 62.1 IP. The swinging-strike rate is 17% in AAA so the strikeout stuff is legitimate. Part of the issue in that first start was he threw his sinker 82% of the time, far too much. Since the Trade Deadline, the offense he’s facing has whiffed 36.8% of the time and is 25th or lower in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, slugging, and OPS. Aaron Ashby gets his second shot in the majors and gets to start the second game of a doubleheader against the Cubs and $4,400 is interesting to me with a legitimate strikeout pitching prospect.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.10 Honorable Mention
Sean Manaea – I really am not a fan of the salary and he should face seven righties, which only whiff 23.8% of the time and have a 3.75 xFIP. Cleveland isn’t great against fastballs at 19th and Manaea throws the sinker right around 50% of the time but he just feels very, very pricey.
Zac Gallen – He’s been very difficult to get right this year and in fairness, has been dealing with injuries the whole time. He has a K rate approaching 29% which is massive for this low of a price tag but does have a wOBA over .330 against lefties. He’s projected to see six in the Giants lineup and his K rate drops to 21.9%. I feel like he’s very talented for his salary, but the spot really does him no favors.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.10 Stacks
With such a big slate, I’m more inclined to use mini-stacks from teams I love and I’ll be highlighting three separate two-man stacks that I really like. The first place we go is right back to the White Sox, as the Twins are sending Griffin Jax to the mound. Chicago is getting very healthy and Jax has been smashed by righty hitters with a 6.27 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, and a .384 wOBA. His four-seam has been smacked around with a .327 wOBA and Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert are both vastly underpriced. They should be more towards $5,000 and until the price corrects itself, they are in against poor pitching. Both hitters are in the positives against the fastball in FanGraphs rating despite the very small sample this season.
J.A. Happ is on the mound again and righties have nearly a .400 wOBA and a 5.50 xFIP against him. Hoy Park has been leading off some nights and has hit well in his limited action so far at a .353 wOBA and .819 OPS. He’s been hitting in AAA and is a great value considering his flexibility, and we can put him at shortstop so we have an outfield spot for Bryan Reynolds. Happ has seen his four-seam rack up a .409 wOBA and 14 home runs given up. Not only does Reynolds smash lefties with a .403 wOBA and a .217 ISO, but he also ranks as the ninth-best fastball hitter for FanGraphs.He’s hit a fastball for 13 of his 19 home runs with a .444 wOBA. I love the idea of using the cheaper Buccos to make pitching and bigger name hitters work tonight.
You can consider larger stacks of the first two teams and this team as well, but my main two targets for my Detroit stack are Jonathan Schoop and Jeimer Candelario. Keegan Akin is starting for the Orioles and his wOBA is over .380 against both sides of the plate while righties only have a 16.1% K rate and a 5.40 xFIP. Akin has seen every pitch rack up a .360 wOBA or higher and his fastball is used almost 58% of the time. Candelario and Schoop are two of the top four hitters against that pitch and are over a .340 wOBA. Schoop and Eric Haase are over a .435 wOBA and .263 ISO but Haase is very expensive for a catcher.
- Reds against Drew Smyly
- A’s against Triston McKenzie
- Red Sox lefties against Luis Patino
- Yankees against Daniel Lynch
- The Jays/Angels game and Brewers/Cubs game are not included since it’s only a seven-inning game for those games
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.10 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
