Jared Levitt 
We saw good returns on our plays from Friday. Bryce Harper just needed to square up one ball into the gap to payout his total base prop. Wander Franco registered 3 hits but unfortunately one didn’t leave the yard. So overall we are +0.3 units to date with our prop bets.
For DFS, the value pitcher hit as Merrill Kelly put up 19.4 points in only 4 innings. A 28 pitch first inning ultimately decided his fate of getting pulled early. But his 7 K’s and 0 ER’s helped build a solid outing for us. And Wander Franco put up where we thought his floor would be. A good but not great return still gave us the chance to cash.
So let’s move on to Saturday’s games for my building blocks and favorite prop bets. Note it’s a split card once again on many DFS sites so these plays are for the early games starting at 1 pm EST
PITCHERS – MLB DFS PLAYS & PROPS
EARLY SLATE
BRANDON WOODRUFF ($9500 DK) – I talked about him in yesterday’s article and the postponement of that game doesn’t change my stance on the flame throwing RHP. Draftkings has priced him $200 more than yesterday but that won’t discourage me from making him my ace on the early slate. Factor in the weather is still cold and the wind is blowing in from LFC and we should see a low scoring game which is all we want when paying up for an arm.
PROP BET: Unfortunately DK moved Woodruff’s K prop to 6.5 today. It’s a no play for me.
KOOL-AIDE MAN (VALUE PITCHER)
MITCH KELLER ($6500 DK) – It’s a new year and a new Mitch. At least that’s what Pittsburgh is trying to sell us. After finishing 2021 with a 6.17 ERA over 23 starts, the once #12 prospect (according to Baseball Prospectus) knew something had to change. He teamed up with Tread Athletics in North Carolina to revamp his form and develop a plus secondary pitch. And all reports coming out of the Bucs spring training camp are that he is a new pitcher. The results have followed too as he put up a 2.92 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over 12.1 innings in the spring. Seeing the WHIP decrease is probably the biggest thing we’re looking for as the RHP ended last year with that number closer to 1.8.
It’s a new year and a new Mitch. Ok, I’m buying it for one day.
PROP BET: Mitch Keller over 3.5 K’s (-170 DK): Let’s buy into the hype even more. FanGraphs is projecting 5 IPs and 4 K’s for Keller. Draftkings is making us pay up but I’m willing to invest. If I’m wrong, then it’s a new year and the same Mitch.
HITTERS – MLB DFS PLAYS & PROPS
EARLY SLATE
BYRON BUXTON ($5900 DK) – The Twins start outfielder was awesome in Florida this spring as he finished with a 0.469 BA and 5 home runs. Last year, Byron was on his way to an MVP award until injuries (once again) derailed him. He is a star in this league and he just needs to stay healthy to show everyone how good he can be. After going 0-4 on Opening Day, I believe Buxton has the perfect game situation to be your building block for hitters. He’s going against SP Logan Gilbert who has a plus fastball but not much else. In 2021, Buxton hit 14 home runs and batted 0.328 against fastballs. This is a great matchup our projections have Byron to be 2x his market today and exceed 11 DK points.
PROP BET: Byron Buxton Total Bases over 1.5 (-120) – I’m strictly looking at the matchup here and believe that Buxton has a decided advantage versus Gilbert. The two have never faced each other, but it is strength versus strength today. Add in the fact that Buxton had two hard hit balls on Opening Day (average exit velocity of 98 MPH) and we’re getting someone that hit into bad luck but is barreling the ball.
SLAP HITTER (VALUE BATTER)
JOSH LOWE ($2600 DK) – The trade of Austin Meadows right before Opening Day opened the door for Josh Lowe. *Tampa’s president of baseball operations, Erik Neander, recently said: “He has the potential to be an All-Star player. That’s how we see him”. Lowe has shown raw power and speed at every level of baseball and the 24-year-old will now get an everyday chance to flash that in the Rays potent offense. And today, he gets to bat 5th against RHP Jordan Lyles who ended last season with a 5.15 ERA and HR/9 rate of 1.9. I love Lowe’s potential today facing a righty and expect him to be at least 3x his fantasy value.
*Referenced from Tampa Bay Times at www.tampabay.com.
Now that you finished reading this article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games.
