Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 5/30
We’ve got two different slates through the day but the pitching options on both leave something to be desired. There are some ace options and at least on the night slate we have some punts with some strikeout upside, but in general, it’s not the best pitching day. Let’s talk about who we do like and who we may avoid in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 5/30!
Aces (Early)
Pablo Lopez
I have a feeling that this could be a pivot play since Lopez is still expensive (and very expensive at that) and he’s pitching in Coors Field but he’s been off the charts good this season. He’s leaned into the four-seam/changeup mix this yea and the change is generating a 43% whiff rate with 30 strikeouts and a .196 wOBA allowed. That has helped him keep his xFIP under 3.00 and the K rate over 27% to go along with his 14.4% swinging-strike rate. That would easily be the highest mark of his career and he also has some other traits that can survive Coors with a 25% hard-hit rate and a 44.3% ground-ball rate. The concern outside of the venue is Colorado is third against the changeup but Lopez has a better one than most. He’s also at his best as far as strikeouts when he’s facing righty hitters with a 31.1% K rate, a 1.99 FIP, and a 2.55 xFIP so the .274 wOBA isn’t that large of a concern. There is no getting around Colorado being in the top 10 in our offensive categories against righties at home, but going back into Coors can be an adjustment and pitching can win when it’s elite.
Dylan Bundy
There isn’t much more of a disgusting salary on this pitching slate than Sunday at $9,500 but the Tigers are so bad right now that we at least have to talk about it. In the last two weeks, things have really gotten out of hand as they are striking out 26.7% of the time, they’re dead last in OBP, 25th in OPS, 21st in ISO, 25th in wOBA, and 24th in wRC+. Just look at yesterday when Triston McKenzie whiffed eight and could have had 30 DK points if Cleveland had produced more than one run. That’s obviously not a guarantee but Bundy has a 3.67 xFIP compared to a 4.54 ERA and his K rate is fine at 21.7%, not that far away from McKenzie. His swinging-strike rate is 11.3% and that’s a good bit higher than his 2021 season of 9.5%. One aspect that will be important is the lineup construction because Bundy has allowed a .377 wOBA, 15.2% K rate, and a 5.26 FIP. In contrast, righties have a 2.94 FIP, 27.3% for the K rate, and a wOBA of only .273. I’m far from convinced that Bundy will be part of my lineups, but it’s at least a possibility.
Framber Valdez
Valdez doesn’t have the K rate that we normally chase at 19% but the A’s do whiff over 24% of the time against lefty pitching and Valdez has an ace in the hole in his 65.8% ground ball rate. In addition to the gaudy strikeout rate, Oakland is also third in ground ball rate at 48.7% and Valdez only allows a 24.8% hard-hit rate on top of everything else. The ERA is under 3.00 and the xFIP is only 3.24 so that appears to be accurate and his splits are virtually identical across the board. Valdez is one of the least “exciting” pitchers that we talk about but it’s a smaller slate and he draws a perfect matchup. He’s throwing the sinker about 51% of the time and Chad Pinder is the only player that stands out against that pitch but the curveball is the pitch that gets the most strikeouts and the A’s are just 18th. Valdez makes plenty of sense in the slate context.
The reason I’m considering these aces is that there aren’t an overwhelming amount of other options. I had very high hopes for Logan Webb coming into the season but the 3.54 ERA isn’t exactly being out-weighed but a paltry 18% K rate. Philly is 12th in K rate against righties at 23.3% which helps a little but there is a big corner with any lefties since Week is at a 4.53 FIP, 13.4% K rate, and .270 wOBA. That’s not ideal with at least Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber waiting in the wings.
Ryan Feltner has made two starts this year and has whiffed over 31% of the hitters he faced so far and has a 3.38 xFIP compared to a 5.40 ERA. The Marlins are only striking out 22% of the time and I’m not sure how appealing it is to pitch someone who is making his first career start in Coors Field. The fly-ball rate is 44% (scary) and his 10.9% swinging-strike rate is generally a little lower than other pitchers who have a K rate over 30%.
Perhaps this is the slate to take a chance on Ethan Small, the 25-year-old lefty for the Brewers who is making his debut in Wrigley Field against the Cubs. He’s not getting a massively easy matchup and Chicago is mostly around the middle of the pack against lefties (they are seventh in ISO) but Small has a 30.4% K rate in AAA this season and a 56% ground ball rate, a great combo for success. Even dating back to 2019 in AAA, the ERA is only 1.78 and he has 177 strikeouts across 136.2 innings. There isn’t much more he can prove there so the time is now to see what he’s got for the major leagues.
Stacks
Brewers
Twins
Giants
Padres
Aces (Late)
Walker Beuhler
This is close to default because the slate doesn’t offer many options in this range, but Buehler at least draws the Pirates and they are banged up. Buehler has been far from a favorite guy for me for quite a while and he has a 3.81 xFIP compared to his 2.91 ERA along with a K rate that has suddenly dipped to 19.1%, the lowest of his career. The WHIP has never been higher at 1.23 but the oddest part is the swinging-strike rate is matching his career-high at 12.3%. The four-seam/cutter combo is the main two pitches from Buehler but they have only got 15 total strikeouts on the season and they are both under 28% for the whiff rate. He’s been oddly bad at home so far with a 4.37 xFIP, .370 wOBA, and 4.21 ERA but if this spot isn’t a get-right spot, I’m not sure what is. Pittsburgh is already in the bottom six in wOBA, OPS, OBP, wRC+, and ISO this season and they whiff over 25%, all the while missing regular players. On a shorter slate, Buehler is almost surely a lock for cash and even I’m going to give him a pretty long look especially since he’s only the this-most expensive pitcher.
Zac Gallen
He’s coming off a poor start and he still has some regression coming for his ERA of 2.22. After all, the xFIP is 3.66 but the good news is he’s going to face a righty-heavy lineup and he’s had better results against the right side as far as strikeouts go. The K rate is 27.4% and the WHIP is only 1.06 while the Braves are flirting with the highest K rate in baseball against righty pitching every day. When Gallen is facing the left side, he’s sporting a 0.59 WHIP and a .188 wOBA even though he won’t face many of them. Gallen hasn’t allowed much hard contact with a 22.4% rate so far and he’s generating a 46.6% ground ball rate on top of that. We could pick on the 10% swinging-strike rate or the fact that he throws the fastball 48% of the time and Atlanta is fifth but I’m betting he’s a major pivot in GPP. Buehler stands to be heavy chalk against a much worse Pittsburgh offense but Gallen can score more points even though he’s facing the Braves. If that happens, you’re in business.
Honorable Mention
I’m not sure who priced this slate but I cannot get on board with Drew Rasmussen for over $10,000. He’s been very good so far and the ERA is only 2.68 with a 3.11 xFIP but the K rate is only 23.7%. I grant you that the other pitchers in this tier aren’t any better but they also aren’t over $10,000 either. Rasmussen has only hit 20 DK or more twice so far this season.
These two slates are similar in that many of the other options aren’t super appealing, at least in the Mid-Range. Maybe you could talk me into David Peterson but I’m not a fan of him being over $8,000 against a Nationals offense that has a 17.5% K rate against lefties with the fact Peterson is not overpowering at 22.4% himself. He does have a good ground ball rate cooking for him at 54.5% so that is always a help and one aspect that could help Peterson is the slider. I’d love o see him throw it a little more here because it has a massive 52% whiff rate and .133 wOBA allowed. 15 of the 22 strikeouts for Peterson have come on that pitch and Washington is only 28th against it, but Peterson has only thrown it 23.7% of the time. There is at least a path here.
Punt Range
Aaron Ashby
For all the reasons that we talked about with Small, Ashby is interesting as well. I have to give Ashby credit for going 91 pitches in the last start because he’s being bounced back and forth between roles. Overall, we’re looking at a 26.4% K rate but we should be a little wary of the walk rate over 13%. Having said that, he does get a ton of ground balls at a 65.9% rate and his slider is the primary pitch with a 41.4% whiff rate. The Cubbies are 13th against that pitch but in the negative numbers as a unit on the FanGraphs rating. Ashby is holding the right side of the plate to a 1.27 WHP and 3.50 xFIP along with a .267 wOBA so he’s absolutely in the running for a spot here. We’ll see what kind of lineup he gets to face in Game 2 of a doubleheader as well.
Spencer Strider
We’ve seen this movie before when the Braves listed Strider as the starter and then later changed it, but hopefully, this is the real deal. He’s only pitched 24.1 innings and hasn’t started a game yet, and the farthest he’s gone is four innings. We’ll keep an eye out for a potential pitch count but the xFIP is 2.66, the FIP is 1.46, the ERA is 2.22, and the K rate is what we’re chasing at a massive 38.9%. It’s fair to expect that Strider will drop a little in K rate if he starts as opposed to coming out of the bullpen but still….even if he fell to 28-30% that’s a huge deal and his swinging-strike rate is closing in on a whopping 17%. He’s also sitting on his four-seam /slider combo 98% of the time which would be an issue in the long term because it’s very difficult to survive 2-3 times through the lineup with just two pitches. The good news is Arizona is fourth in K rate against righties at 24.9% and Strider has allowed a lower wOBA against the left side at .206. His K rate drops somewhat to 34.7% but it’s not like that’s anything bad!
Stacks
Mets
Red Sox
Rays
Orioles
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 5/30 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
