Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 5/28
Saturday means the MLB action is going to be split up and we have two separate six-game slates and they both have some repeat pitching options. The rain came in late in the day yesterday and wreaked some havoc but we’re ready to roll in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 5/28!
Aces (Early)
Gerrit Cole
The number of pitchers who can give up seven hits, five earned runs, take a loss, and still score 25.8 DK points isn’t very large. Cole is one of those pitchers and he’s sixth in the league in swinging-strike rate at 15.2% and he’s third in CSW at 32.5%. The K rate is 29.4% which means there is likely even more to go given the other metrics and with this amount of K upside, I’m not about to sweat a 3.00 FIP or a 2.76 xFIP. The 23.5% hard-hit rate would be the lowest of Cole’s career as well so there isn’t much telling me the last start wasn’t a bit on the odd side as far as production allowed. His BABIP is higher on the right side a t.342 but the 2.29 xFIP is awesome and he’s generating a 51.2% ground ball rate as well. Every one of his main pitches has a whiff rate over 33.5% and Tampa strikes out at the seventh-highest rate against righties at 24.6%.
Sandy Alcantara
I wouldn’t expect another complete-game victory for Alcantara and he did go for 115 pitches, a season-high last time out against the Braves. He’s a slightly odd pitcher since he uses four pitches but they are all between 28.1% and 22.5% so it’s very even across the board. His changeup and slider are over 29% for the whiff rate and they have 36 of 49 strikeouts on the season. The K rate overall is not great at just 20.8% and that’s likely the largest concern when comparing him to Cole and even the next pitcher. Even though he’s generating a 50.3% ground ball rate, the 2.11 ERA is not in line with the 4.09 xFIP so that is another concern. The flip side is the barrel rate is just 5% and the hard-hit rate is only 26.1% so hitters can’t exactly figure him out even without overpowering K stuff. He is at his best against the right side of the plate with a .270 wOBA, 3.88 xFIP, and a 23.6% K rate so the Braves are a good matchup for an upside start since they whiff the most against righties at 26.3%. He’s likely third in this tier, but he’s still in play.
Shane Bieber
Bieber was covered in yesterday’s version and nothing has changed except for the day he’s pitching.
Mid-Range
Alex Wood
Wood is another Giants pitcher that is suffering from some bad luck with an ERA closer to 5.00 and his xFIP is only 3.14 and he’s managed to hold the HR/9 under 1.00. Cincinnati has been vulnerable to lefty pitching all season with the fifth-highest K rate (25.5%) and they rank in the bottom six in wOBA, OPS, OBP, wRC+, and ISO. His K rate is 23.2% and the fly-ball rate is only 22.8%, a good sign for pitching in Cincinnati. Wood even has the hard-hit ate under 23.5% and he’s currently getting killed by the BABIP against righties at .419, driving the WHIP to 1.85. That’s not going to last forever and the sinker/slider combo has 35 strikeouts for Wood to this point. The Reds are in the bottom 10 against fastballs and sliders so this is a solid spot if you decide to pay up for SP2 today.
Punt Range
There is virtually nothing to offer here. I suppose that the matchup between Zach Logue and Taylor Hearn might attract some folks but that seems scary, to be kind. On the Hearn side of things, his 5.77 ERA doesn’t match the 4.30 xFIP but he’s also walking 11.3% of the hitters he’s facing and the K rate isn’t even 21%. I get Oakland is striking out over 24% of the time but they are 16th in ISO and I may rather sacrifice a bat than take the chance here. Likewise, Logue got hit hard in the last start and the xFIP is up to 5.00 with a 2.01 HR/9. Given that we have a very small sample of just 22.1 IP and Texas is seventh in ISO and 13th in wRC+, this isn’t the best spot either.
Stacks
Giants
Rockies
Guardians
Marlins/A’s/Rangers (salary relief)
Aces (Main)
Joe Musgrove
Not one pitcher crosses the five-digit threshold but Musgrove deserves to be this high. He throttled Pittsburgh the first time around for 29 DK points, the highest of the season and his slider has been ridiculous. It’s the primary pitch and Pittsburgh is 22nd, not to mention that Musgrove has a 42.1% swinging-strike rate, a .167 wOBA, and 24 strikeouts with it. There is a gap between his xFIP of 3.12 to the 1.90 ERA but I’m not sure the Pirates can make him pay. Musgrove has a 25.1% K rate and Pittsburgh represents a strong matchup in that department with the fourth-highest K rate at 24.9%. The swinging-strike rate is 12% and neither side of the plate is over a .285 wOBA, both sides are under a 1.10 WHIP, and both xFIP’s are under 3.15. Sean Manaea was a disappointment last night but Musgrove cares not for his struggles.
Tony Gonsolin
Gonsolin is the same as Bieber as the Dodgers pushed him back one day and he’s already been covered.
Honorable Mention
It’s been a breakout season for Logan Gilbert in many respects with a 3.57 xFIP and a 26.2% K rate, although the swinging-strike rate is down to 11%. We’ll need to see the Astros lineup because Gilbert has been less successful against the right side of the plate with a 4.46 FIP, 4.21 xFIP, a 20.3% K rate, and a .329 wOBA. That is less than ideal at the salary with the other options available.
Mid-Range
I’m not likely to spend much time in this range tonight but if I do, I might consider Michael Lorenzen. The lone reason is how well he’s pitched against the right side of the plate with a 24.1% K rate, a 0.67 WHIP, and a .178 wOBA. His sinker is the main pitch against the right side of the plate and that has a .229 wOBA and .200 average so far. my largest issue is I don’t exactly trust Lorenzen against a good offense and five hitters have a wOBA over .395 when they see a sinker this year. That’s not what I’m looking for so there’s a path of Lorenzen, but it’s not my favorite.
Punt Range
Johnny Cueto
That’s right, it’s time for Johnny Two Shakes. Do I really expect his performance to continue? Not exactly, although the 3.30 xFIP through 12 innings with 12 strikeouts for a 26.1% K rate isn’t bad at all. The hard-hit rate is 33.3% but at the same time, the ground ball rate is 50%. I don’t love seeing the swinging-strike rate at 6.3% and only one pitch has a whiff rate over 19.2%. It’s been his four-seam but he’s only throwing that 15.9% of the time while using a sinker/slider combo as the main two pitches. The Cubs are just 15th against the slider but they are also striking out 25% of the time when facing righties. Cueto could be all a mirage but the salary is totally fine and he’s facing the second-heaviest strikeout team in the league.
Honorable Mention
Keegan Thompson is dirt cheap and has a 1.54 ERA, 23.1% K rate, and a 10.6% swinging-strike rate. The White Sox have been terrible against righty pitching and they have a 47% ground ball rate, the third-highest rate in the league. Thompson has generated a rate over 53% but my only fear is the pitch count. He’s not been over 65 pitches and has to be nearly perfect to score enough points to be worthwhile. Now, he’s done that in his past two appearances BUT just understand how narrow the path to success is here.
Stacks
Dodgers
Phillies/Mets
Angels
Padres
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