Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 5/26
Thursday is a little odd this week because almost every game is in the 7:00 p.m. window but I honestly prefer that style of slate. We get nine games and a whole bunch of options at the top, although the punt options tonight are severely lacking. Let’s get into who we’re going to chase in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 5/26 and to lead us to green again!
Aces
Trail Skubal
So this will be the second straight time that Skubal has faced the Guardians offense and this is what we talked about the last time –
He’s far from the free square that he was last time out but Skubal has had a very strong start to the season, rocking a 2.50 ERA, 2.08 FIP, and a 2.71 xFIP. Like the previous two pitchers, he has a tough strikeout matchup because Cleveland only whiffs 21.1% against lefties. However, a key difference is Cleveland is also in the bottom eight in OPS, OBP, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ this year and Skubal has walked right through some of the tougher matchups he could face. Skubal has pitched against the Astros and Rockies already and totaled 12 IP, two earned runs, 15 strikeouts, and over 50 DK points. The HR/9 has been spectacular so far because last year, it was 2.11 and this season it’s dropped to 0.45 and the xFIP doesn’t suggest much flukiness there. His K rate is 28.3% and the swinging-strike rate is 12.6%, both strong marks. Skubal also isn’t overly reliant on any pitch as his four-seam/slider/sinker mix is all between about 29%-21% and the four-seam has shown massive improvement. He’s cut back on it by around 15% but the wOBA has come down from .413 to .292 (and the xwOBA is .210) and the strikeouts are evenly spread through the mix. With the Guardians just not hitting lefties well so far, you could argue Skubal has about the best matchup of any ace tonight. He just doesn’t have the track record to back it up…yet.
Skubal then proceeded to go out and shove for five innings with five strikeouts, four hits, and zero runs allowed before taking a comeback shot to the leg. That forced him from the game before he even hit 70 pitches and I’m in again for all the reasons laid out.
Kyle Wright
Wright continues his breakout campaign with a 2.97 xFIP, 2.51 FIP, and 2.49 EA to go along with a 0.38 HR/9 and a K rate of 29.5%. On top of all of that, Wright only has an 8.4% walk rate and a 50.9% ground ball rate so there is very little to pick on here. He’s generating a 12.5% swinging-strike rate and the hard-hit rate is under 30% while Wright has started to live up to his draft pedigree. Both sides of the plate are under a .270 wOBA and we do prefer as many righties as possible with a 2.33 xFIP and 30.7% K rate but it’s not like the lefties are doing a ton of damage either. Philly is 12th in K rate against righty pitching and the curveball has been massive for Wright. He’s now throwing it the most of any pitch at 32.7% and it’s still generating a 38.4% whiff rate and it has 26 strikeouts. That is going to be a challenge in this spot because Philly is fourth against the curve but Wright has been so good that just one issue isn’t enough to put me off of him tonight.
Aaron Nola
I’ve certainly not been a fan in the past but I have to give Nola credit for being fifth in the league in total strikeouts at 64and the K rate is 30.9%. The ERA looks like a problem at 3.96 but the xFIP is only 2.69 and his HR/FB rate is 20%. His career mark is 14.3% and Nola is also generating the second-highest ground ball rate of his career at 50.8%. His curve has been a star pitch as well since it leads in strikeouts at 22 and it also has a 42.9% whiff rate. Now, it has allowed three home runs and a .308 wOBA but that will go down when the HR/FB rate stabilizes. The lineup construction doesn’t exactly do Nola a lot of favors because his K rate is 27.5% against the right side and the WHIP is 1.30. Some folks may worry about a .385 wOBA but that’s being driven by six home runs because the xFIP is still down at 2.69. With the Braves striking out the most in the league against righties at 25.8%, Nola has plenty of upside and hasn’t pitched as bad as the ERA would indicate.
Frankie Montas
It doesn’t appear that Montas will have any issues coming into this start after being hit in the hand in his last start and leaving early. The bullpen session went well and the season has gone well so far for Montas with a 2.97 xFIP and a 27.4% K rate through 50.2 innings. The ground ball rate has only been higher n the 2019 season and this year it’s at 48.5% to go along with his career-high 13.5% swinging-strike rate. We want a lot of righties here for Montas because he’s sporting a 33.3% K rate against that side compared to 22.2% against lefties. The xFIP is also 2.22 and the splitter/four-seam combo has racked up 43 total strikeouts. Both pitches have a whiff rate over 27.5% and Texas is 11th in K rate against righty pitching this season at 23.6%. They are also in the bottom three in wOBA and wRC+ so this is a pretty excellent spot for Montas.
Honorable Mention
Eric Lauer is the top salary on the slate and he’s been excellent all season long with a 2.66 xFIP and a 32.9% K rate. The issue in my eyes is St. Louis ranks either second or first in wOBA, OPS, OBP, ISO, wRC+, and they only strike out 19% of the time. At the salary, you need Lauer to post the highest score and the road to getting there is very narrow for him. The Cards can chew up any lefty, just as they recently did to Carlos Rodon of the Giants.
Mid-Range
Shohei Ohtani
Before going off a couple of nights ago, the Blue Jays have been scuffling mightily and now they have to deal with Ohtani on the mound. One of the keys for Ohtani is lineup construction because he’s utterly dominant against the right side with a .140 wOBA, .113 average, 41.9% K rate, and a 1.71 xFIP. Not only is Ohtani likely to see at least 7-8 righties, every single one of the big guns from Toronto is a righty. That’s not a guarantee by any means but his slider has the highest whiff rate of his arsenal at 48.9% and that is virtually tied with the four-seam as his main pitch against righty hitters. Given the easier matchups for other pitchers on this slate, I’m going to be very interested to see what happens with Ohtani tonight. This is still a pitcher that is only allowing a 20% hard-hit rate against righties and has a 2.46/2.16 xFIP/FIP combo while getting a swing and a miss 16.3% of the time.
Check out our MLB Projection Model to see who is the best value pitcher of the slate on DraftKings.
Honorable Mention
I feel like I’m a game log chase by bringing up Marin Perez because he’s coming off a complete-game shutout but he’s up to 49.1 IP with a 2.44 FIP and 3.66 xFIP. Now, the ERA is just 1.64 so there’s regression coming at some point and the K rate is just 19.9%. That’s always a concern when we get over the $8,000 threshold but with the game against the A’s, he might be popular. Perez is only allowing a .233 wOBA against righties but even then, the xFIP is still 3.46 so this isn’t my favorite play.
Punt Range
Konnor Pilkington
I mentioned that I don’t care for many of the punt options tonight. Hyun Jin Ryu has been pitching better but I’m not comfortable challenging the Angels with him and then you get the Patrick Corbin and German Marquez matchup, which is more of a game stack than it is a pitcher’s paradise. That brings us to Pilkington in part because he’s only $4,000 and in part through 8.2 IP in the majors, he has a 3.27 xFIP and 30.6% K rate. Detroit is striking out 23% of the time against lefties and they are 23rd or worse in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, and OPS so the matchup is strong. Every pitch that he’s thrown in the majors this year has a whiff rate over 25% and the pitch that has given him some issues has been the fourth-seam. It’s allowed a .324 wOBA and .487 xwOBA but the Tigers are 23rd against fastballs, a bonus for Pilkington. There is always going to be a risk with inexperienced pitchers and through 14.1 IP in AAA this year, his K rate is just 17.5%. It’s also the first time since rookie ball in 2018 that the K rate has been below 23.2% so I’m willing to roll the dice with all of the good offenses we have on the board.
Stacks
Red Sox
Rockies
Angels
Dodgers
Twins
Royals
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