Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/9
We only have five games on the main slate tonight as Thursday is a travel day for quite a few teams but there are some quality pitchers on the slate. There are two pitchers that are priced like an ace and another that can put out an ace-level score. Let’s get rolling in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/9 and figure out who we’re chasing to lead the charge to green screens!
Aces
Gerrit Cole
Cole just keeps on trucking along through this season and he’s down to a 2.78 ERA, a 2.58 FIP, and a 2.60 xFIP over the course of 64.2 innings. His K rate has climbed up to 31.5% after not striking out a lot of hitters toward the stat of the year and the swinging-strike rate remains extremely high at 15.5%. Over the past 30 days, the Twins lineup has struck out at a 24.2% rate and that is the sixth-highest mark in the majors but this spot is not without risk. During that span, they are also fourth in wOBA, wRC+, and OPS in addition to eighth in ISO. They are also 10th against the fastball which could cause some issues since Cole is using that pitch 49% of the time (it does have 46 strikeouts so it’s not the normal fastball). He does see a bump in K rate when facing a lefty at 35.1% but righties are only at a .296 wOBA and 28.8% K rate. I feel like Cole is going to give up a bomb or two, but he’ll land between 8-10 strikeouts and still be worth the salary tonight.
Max Fried
Fried is one of those pitchers that I want to catch in the right spot and the Pirates do check that box. While they can be pesky, they have a young offense as a whole and Fried can take advantage of that fact. Pittsburgh is 28th in OBP, 21st in OPS, 22nd in wOBA, and 24th in wRC+, and they carry a 23.9% K rate. They do rise to 15th in ISO but Fried has a 0.65 HR/9 and a 52.5% ground ball rate so he’s equipped to neutralize that aspect of the Pittsburgh offense. Fried also has a K rate over 22% and he’s holding righties to a .278 wOBA with a 1.09 WHIP. The changeup still isn’t a big piece of the arsenal but he’s thrown it at a 12.5% rate so far this year and it has a 36.8% whiff rate to go with his curve at a 40.7% whiff rate. Fried can throw any of his five pitches at any time and keeps hitters off-balance, and should be worth the salary against a vulnerable offense tonight.
Shohei Ohtani
This salary almost feels like a trap because we know the upside that Ohtani has, although it is fair to point out that his floor is low as well. Ohtani has been unlucky if the xFIP is telling the truth because it’s only 2.70 compared to a 3.99 ERA but the fly-ball rate has risen to 42.5%. When we combine that with a HR/FB rate of almost 16%, that gets him to the eight home runs he’s allowed and his barrel rate is almost 11%. Despite some of the issues that Ohtani has had this season, his K rate has never been higher at 33% and his walk rate has never been lower than the 5.6% mark he has right now. Even the swinging-strike rate is as high as it’s ever been at 15.1% so the ability to miss bats is elite. Everything but the four-seam has a whiff rate over 42% and that splitter is still the lead pitch in strikeouts at 23. We’ll hope for plenty of righties as he has a .261 wOBA, 2.28 xFIP, and a 37.6% K rate when facing that side but the bottom line is we don’t get Ohtani cheaper, regardless of opponent.
Nick Pivetta
I can’t help but think Pivetta is going to get waxed at some point because I don’t think he’s as good as he’s pitched so far, even though a 4.00 xFIP isn’t utterly terrible. However, if he draws the Angels lineup that Eovaldi got last night, it’s a different story. Mike Trout was out and he joined Taylor Ward and Anthony Rendon as missing from the lineup and that particular version had a cumulative K rate of over 27%. Pivetta has worked himself to a 23.3% K rate and he’s under a 0.90 HR/9, so his quality
has been solid through 60+ innings. Both sides of the plate are under .300 for the wOBA and the more righties might be better. The wOBA and WHIP are higher, but the xFIP is almost a full run lower and the K rate goes up to 26%. His slider/four-seam combo has really done well for him with the slider having the best whiff rate of the arsenal at 31.9% and the four-seam having 24 strikeouts. His curve is dead even to both sides at 135 each and that pitch has 21 so it’s a balanced attack from Pivetta. Let’s see what kind of lineup Pivetta gets tonight.
Punts
Konnor Pilkington
This is what we wrote yesterday before the Guardians pushed him back one day –
This is a dangerous play since Pilkington has no real track record to speak of but he’s so cheap for a 29.1% K rate that we have to consider him. Now, the walk rate is sky-high at 12.7% and his fly-ball rate is over 41% but the hard-hit rate is only 23.9% and Pilkington has a 15.3% swinging-strike rate. Those numbers would command a much higher salary if they were consistent and he’s held righties to a .290 wOBA with a 2.19 FIP. His changeup and slider both have generated a whiff rate over 44% and Texas is 19th in wRC+, 22nd in wOBA, and 21st in OPS over the past 30 days against lefty pitching. They still have plenty of power as they rank in the top 10 in ISO in that span but Pilkington has yet to allow a home run, so there is plenty to like about him even with warts.
This matchup might actually be even better for him since the A’s have a higher K rate at 23.6% and they are no higher than 22nd in any category.
Stacks
Orioles
Guardians
Royals
Braves
Yankees
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