Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/5
With the Yankees playing at 11:35 this Sunday, we don’t have to worry about them being chalk but the pitching is pretty interesting. There are two pitchers that are a clear step above the rest of the slate although at least one of them has some slight questions around him. Let’s get into those two and more in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/5 to see who’s leading the charge to green again!
Aces
Lucas Giolito
Giolito gets the Rays matchup we’ve been chasing all weekend since they’re not healthy and have been so bad against righty pitching in the past two weeks and Giolito isn’t someone who will let them up off the ground. He has a change and a slider that both have whiff rates of at least 38% and the changeup has 22 strikeouts, matching the four-seam fastball. Tampa is 24th when facing the fastball and the changeup both, leaving a pathway wide open for Giolito. He’s due some regression to the 2.95 xFIP from his 3.61 EA and the K rate is 33.3% to go along with a 14.8% swinging-strike rate. Giolito has had some issues with the long ball this year with a 1.70 HR/9 but the Rays are only 18th in total homers so far this season. The wOBA against righties looks scary as all get out with a .405 mark but the BABIP is .383 and his xFIP is still only 3.53. A power threat like Randy Arozarena could make sense as a one-off from the right side but lefties have a 41.1% K rate, a 2.61 FIP, and a .249 wOBA. The Rays lineup currently doesn’t give me much pause when playing Giolito. I fully assume he’s going to be major chalk at his salary of just $9,600 on DK.
Kevin Gausman
The big question for Gausman is the strikeouts because they have been far less reliable in the past five starts. He has hit eight strikeouts twice but he’s also had five, five, and three and those numbers don’t exactly cut it when you’re paying this salary. It hasn’t even been a strikeout per inning and I do wonder if some of that has been from maybe using the slider too much? That pitch is sort of a paradox. It generates a higher whiff rate at 50% than the splitter at 44.4% but it has just three strikeouts. In the two games that he hit eight strikeouts, Gausman threw the slider 5.7% and 3.1%. There could be a fine line between getting a whiff and still having his splitter be the putaway pitch with 49 strikeouts. Gausman is still getting a massive swinging-strike rate at 16.9% and his splits are dynamite as well. Neither side has an xFIP over 2.96 and righties are striking out 33.3% of the time. The BABIP is still ridiculous at .452 so I’m still very much into the idea of pitching Gausman, even with the strikeouts not being there as much lately. His salary could leave him less popular, presenting an opportunity in GPP.
Framber Valdez
It’s hard not to love Valdez in this spot as he’s pitched 7.2, seven, seven, and nine innings in his last four and has given up a total of six earned runs while striking out 24 hitters. Through the month of May alone, he held hitters to a 2.30 ERA, and a .251 wOBA, and the K rate has stayed stagnant at 19.5%. The Royals could help out that rate as in the last two weeks, they have whiffed over 25% when facing a lefty. They haven’t handled that side of the mound as over the entire course of the season, they rank 27th in wRC+, 28th in wOBA, ISO, OPS, and they are 24th in OBP. We’re not exactly banking on 10 strikeouts here and he doesn’t have a Hughe strikeout pitch since the curve is responsible for 27 strikeouts and a 34.4% whiff rate. Kansas City is only 13th when facing the curve this year and they’re in the top 10 in ground ball rate. That’s a big part of the puzzle since Valdez has a 65.7% ground ball rate and that helps him get deeper into the game. Neither side of the plate is over a .270 wOBA and it’s hard to see where the damage comes from when facing this Royal lineup.
Zac Gallen
I do believe that Gallen is a step below anyone else in this tier as he’s not made it to the sixth inning in the past three starts and the K rate is under 25%. Sure, Valdez is as well but he’s got a much better chance to go further into the game based on what we’ve seen this season. There’s also the fact that the 2.32 ERA doesn’t match the 3.63 xFIP although the rest of the profile looks pretty strong. Gallen has a hard-hit rate under 25%, the HR/9 is 0.54, and the ground ball rate is 48.5%. Pittsburgh is only 18th against the fastball and that is a boost for Gallen since he throws it 48.3% of the time and it has a .250 wOBA along with 22 strikeouts even with just a 16% whiff rate. His splits are a bit of a mixed bag since lefties have a .188 wOBA but just a 20.7% K rate while the righties have a 27.4% K rate but also a .291 wOBA. With Pittsburgh ranking 21st or lower in all of our offensive categories, Gallen shouldn’t be ignored as he might be in line for some strikeouts since the Bucs have a 24.9% K rate when facing a righty.
Honorable Mention
Eric Lauer is on the radar, but there are some “troubling” trends in his profile. So, Lauer kind of came out of nowhere, and in the first month or so, he whiffed 36.6% of the hitters he faced. That is a massive shift in his 22.4% career K rate and we’re talking nearly a 400 IP sample before the 2022 season started. In the month of May, the K rate went down to 23.5% and that made a whole lot more sense compared to where he’s always been at. Lauer still pitched well with a 2.96 ERA but the FIP/xFIP combo was at least 4.21with a HR/9 of 1.65 and I believe we can utilize some of the Padres offense before we’d look to pitch him.
Everyone Else
I believe the star of this tier and possibly the cash SP2 is going to be Luis Castillo, hot off a start where he scored 35 DK against the Boston Red Sox. I always dislike chasing strikeouts for a pitcher facing the Nationals since they only whiff 20.5% of the time against righty pitching. However, this same lineup is 19th in wOBA and wRC+ and they are only 23rd in ISO. Castillo has a 30.4% whiff rate or higher on his change and four-seam (they have 22 of his 28 strikeouts) and the changeup is the clearest path to success since it’s his primary pitch and Washington is dead last against it. Castillo has also quietly pitched fairly well with a 50.7% ground ball rate, a 26.7% K rate, and a FIP/xFIP combo under 2.95. Lefties are not going to earn a .376 wOBA all season since they have a .345 BABIP, but a chalky (potentially) Castillo seems dangerous. He’s the one I feel most “comfortable” with as far as the metrics lead us but the gut doesn’t feel great about him.
At first glance, this isn’t the slate that I’m overly excited about anyone. Mike Clevinger is back and he pitched well in his last start before injury. However, a right triceps injury for a righty that is coming off a major arm surgery absolutely freaks me out at $8,800. The Brewers do have a higher K rate against righties at 23.8% but Clevinger and his 25.4% K rate seem like he could blow up in our face. Perhaps we’ll get some type of pitch count in the morning.
I was excited for Jakob Junis in the first month and thought maybe the Giants were onto something with him, but the month of May was not kind to him. The ERA jumped to 3.67, the wOBA went up 80 points to .289, and the FIP is 4.59. If that wasn’t enough, the Marlins are eighth when facing a slider and Junis is using that pitch right about 55% of the time.
There is a small chance I could turn to Kyle Gibson as a punt, but he has to draw the correct lineup. Last night, the Angels had five hitters that hit lefty and if that happens again, I’m out. Gibson has an 11.7% K rate and 5.08 xFIP when facing a lefty. However, his K rate when facing righties jumps up to 29.2%, the xFIP plummets to 2.21, and the Angels whiff at a top-three rate in baseball at 24.9%. The draw is paramount before we can even consider him.
Stacks
Blue Jays
Giants
Reds
Angels LHH
D-Backs
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