Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/30
We only have a handful of games tonight but wow the pitching is going to be tough outside of one or two options. It’s not a total wasteland but we’re not going to have a ton of choices and the pitching is sure to be chalky this evening. I will say at least the sites were smart enough to add in the 6:00 p.m. games or it would have been even worse. Let’s talk about who we know will be popular and others in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/30!
Aces
Aaron Nola
Nola has been fantastic this season with a 2.98 ERA, a 2.88 xFIP, and a K rate over 29% and is worth every penny, even though the matchup is never going to be easy against the Braves. The fact that Nola has been able to get this done with a swinging-strike rate of 11.3% (the lowest since 2019) makes it even more impressive. Atlanta is ninth against the curve and that is a small worry since Nola relies on that pitch to the tune of 42 strikeouts, a 39.4% whiff rate, and a .254 wOBA. It may not seem ideal that the wOBA against righties is at .294 but the xFIP is 2.57 and the fly-ball rate is under 33%. The HR/9 of 16.3% is likely a little undeserved and Nola has been performing at an ace level even with that baked in. With the Braves whiffing 25.5% of the time against righties, Nola has immense upside even with the threat of the Atlanta lineup.
Logan Gilbert
I think by default, Gilbert will be about the most popular player on the slate and he draws the Oakland lineup that typically doesn’t give us much fear. They are 29th or 30th in ISO, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and OBP with a K rate just under 24%, the seventh-highest mark in the majors. He’s got a gap between the xFIP of 3.63 and his ERA of 2.44 but he does balance that with a 24.9% K rate and 10.8% swinging-strike rate. Oakland is also 29th when facing a fastball and Gilbert is throwing that around 56% of the time with a .319 wOBA allowed and a 23.5% whiff rate. Of his 89 strikeouts, 48 have come from the fastball so that aspect of the matchup is a checkmark for Gilbert. I don’t love the .313 wOBA against righties because the A’s could send six of them to the plate tonight but the quality of the righties isn’t anything special, to be sure. The K rate also drops to 21.1% when facing that side so this isn’t a perfect spot, but there’s enough there to be happy about playing Gilbert on this slate.
Luis Severino
I don’t always love pitchers against the same team twice in a row but Severino has a big advantage for the splits as the Houston offense is typically righty-heavy. Unfortunately, there is a pretty good chance that Yordan Alvarez could be out for this game after a collision yesterday but that would be an advantage for Severino. He’s smoking the right side of the plate for a .267 wOBA, a .194 average, a 36.8% K rate, and a 2.54 xFIP. Houston already only had three lefties to worry about in their normal lineup and without Alvarez, this lineup gets less intimidating. Severino is using the slider much more against the right side of the plate and that is the strikeout pitch. It has a 44.8% whiff rate, 36 strikeouts, and a .230 wOBA allowed. If Alvarez is out as I’m assuming, he could wind up being my favorite pitcher on the entire slate.
Honorable Mention
I don’t know if I’d do this in anything else but deeper GPP, but the Dodgers are coming out of Coors and offenses can struggle in that first game. Joe Musgrove has been very strong this season even though he got waxed. His xFIP is 3.16 and the K rate is 24.6% and the K rate actually bumps up against the left side. It’s not an ideal spot but there are factors that could lead Musgrove to have a pretty good game for fantasy.
Everyone Else
After the top tier, the drop-off is steep and there are a lot of unstable plays. Graham Ashcraft has shown he’s either going for 20+ or under five so far in his short career. I have a tough time going for a pitcher with a 15.8% K rate and it took eight in the last games to even get him that high. The good aspect is he has a ground ball rate of 57.5% and that can play in any park, let alone Wrigley. He’s also been worse when facing a righty with a .339 wOBA and a 4.27 xFIP so there’s a lot to worry about here.
JT Brubaker also checks in as someone that could succeed or get hit hard as he has a .319 wOBA against lefties but the K rate bumps up to 23.7% and the Brewers can strike out at 23.7%. The xFIP of 4.49 is not the most comforting aspect of his profile but the slider and curve have legit swing-and-miss stuff over 32.5% each. The hard-hit rate s just 29.2% for Brubaker and he can avoid damage and occasionally pop up for a big start, worth taking a chance on tonight.
Ian Anderson is another player that could get a break as far as the lineup because Philly could throw a few lefties. They have a .291 wOBA, a 21% K rate, a 0.55 HR/9, and a 3.99 FIP but the xFIP is 4.55. The walk rate also skyrockets to 14.5% and even without Bryce Harper, it’s not hard to see this fall apart for Anderson even with a shot at a solid game.
Honorable Mention
Adrian Martinez made his big-league debut last time out and went 5.1 innings without allowing a run, but the K rate was only 14.3% and that’s been hit-and-miss in the minors. The xFIP was 4.50 but eventually, the Mariners are going to start serving suspensions. He’s under $6,000 and I can see taking some shots with an unknown as it sometimes takes a couple of starts for the majors to catch up.
Kyle Hendrick could wind up being a little chalky tonight, which I would get but would be terrifying. His K rate is under 18%, the FIP is 4.87, and the xFIP is 4.62. He has controlled the righties to a higher degree with a 0.74 HR/9, a 3.47 FIP, and a .281 wOBA so there is a chance I’d be a bit more interested, but the conditions and lineup would have to be perfect.
Stacks
Yankees
Pirates
Blue Jays
Cubs/Reds Game Stack
Rays
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