Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/20
These are the kind of slates that we dream about because there are a ton of options for just nine games with a loaded Ace tier tonight. We also still get some intriguing options in the lower their and I’m very excited for some of these matchups. Let’s try and decipher which two pitchers we’ll need the most in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/20!
Aces
Gerrit Cole
Cole does face Tampa for the second time in a row but this is a team that couldn’t hit the Baltimore bullpen yesterday and has been one of the worst offenses in baseball across the last 30 days, which basically coincided with the Wander Franco injury. The K rate in that span is 24.9% and Cole is at a 30.6% K rate, a 14.9% swinging-strike rate, and a 2.80 xFIP. Even though he can sometimes give up a long ball or two (or five), the hard-hit rate is 24.1% and when he’s on his game, he’s tough to beat. Tampa is also down to 22nd when facing a fastball and the slider, which is almost 70% of the arsenal for Cole. Those two pitches have 78 of 91 strikeouts for him on the season and they both have a whiff rate of at least 33.5% and the only real issue with the fastball is it has allowed five home runs. With Tampa sitting 23rd in ISO in the past month and the Rays have been lefty-heavy. That’s perfect for Cole with a .217 wOBA, 35.9% K rate, and a 0.79 WHIP so in my eyes, he’s deserving of the top salary on the slate.
Corbin Burnes
It feels odd to see Burnes under $10,000 even though the production has been a little up-and-down lately. He’s taken over the lead in the swinging-strike rate at 16.4% and that bodes well for his 32.1% K rate to keep up. It’s a little funny to be critical of the production when the ERA is 2.52, the xFIP is 2.77, and the barrel rate is just 6.3%. A righty-heavy lineup like the Cardinals in theory is better for Burnes since he has a .258 wOBA against them and a 0.85 WHIP but even the lefties are only at a 2.31 xFIP and both are over 31% for the K rate. The cutter/curve mix is the main mix for Burnes and St. Louis is 13th when facing the cutter and 27th when facing the curve. Additionally, his slider has a whiff rate over 54% and that’s the secondary pitch against righties. I have him behind Cole as far as priority up top but really, the top three are very difficult to separate.
Shane McClanahan
This is basically a carbon copy of five days ago on this side because he faced the Yanks and surrendered four runs, but only one was earned. Shane O’Mac got through six innings and only gave up three hits (two homers) and he struck out seven, totaling 22 DK points yet again. He’s still leading all qualified starters in 35.2% and the next closest is Dylan Cease at 32.9% while he has fallen to second in swinging-strike rate by 0.3% behind Burnes. His curve/change/slider mix continues to dominate and they all have at least a 33.9% whiff rate with the change/slider sitting at least at 43$. They have accumulated 79 of 105 strikeouts and the ERA of 1.84 matches up with the 2.13 xFIP. The ground ball rate remains over 48% and even with a 1.15 HR/9, the upside is palpable. He is third among the big three just based on the matchup with the Yankees, but you can make the accurate argument that he’s been the best pitcher in the majors this season.
Honorable Mention
The Giants are ninth in K rate against lefty pitching and that opens the door for Max Fried to have a bigger game and his K rate is up over 23% and the FIP is 2.80 to back up the 2.94 xFIP. Fried could also neutralize the high fly-ball rate of San Francisco’s offense since he generates a ground ball rate over 52% but on paper, he does not have the same upside as the big three tonight.
I will not likely stray from these three pitchers when I’m spending up but Jose Berrios seems to be finding his stride. As much as I may not be a huge fan, even I knew that he wasn’t as bad as he was pitching early on and in five of the past six games, he’s scored at least 18 points. The White Sox are 20th against the curve and Brio’s is down to a 4.13 xFIP, which isn’t bad considering it was over 5.00 in May. The K rate is back up over 20% and on another slate, I might be more interested.
Mid-Range
Miles Mikolas
I was prepared to fade Mikolas after he threw a massive 129 pitches in the last start, falling one out short of a no-hitter. That’s so many pitches that I would expect Mikolas to be a little bit limited here although he threw 115 pitches on May 29th, then threw 107 in his next start. Not only is that encouraging but once again, the DK algorithm completely dropped the ball and Mikolas is only $7,800. He was $8,400 in the last start, has two straight games of at least 32 DK, and his salary dropped by $600. There’s no real excuse for that and Milwaukee whiffs over 24% of the time. Mikolas mixes his pitches well and doesn’t throw anything over 28.1% and even though the 3.75 xFIP is well above the 2.62 ERA, it’s hard to not look to Mikolas as an SP2 candidate at this salary. My biggest fear is a repeat of the last time when he was in Milwaukee and scored under seven DK points and he is worse against lefties with an xFIP over 4.00 and a K rate under 19%. Overall though, Mikolas has been a strong SP2 through the season and I’d be a lot less enthused if he was n the $9,000 range.
Yu Darvish
Is he getting right as the season goes on? Since the start of May, the ERA has dropped under 3.00 and even though the K rate isn’t spectacular around 20%, Darvish has held teams to a 1.35 ERA at home and the K rate climbs over 25%. He’s been especially dominant against lefties at home at a .164 wOBA, 0.52 WHIP, and a 2.22 FIP and he’ll likely face at least seven lefties tonight. Arizona can hit some games but they also have a K rate of 24.9% and that is fifth when facing a righty. I don’t think the salary has caught up with Darvish pitching much better across the past ~50 IP or so and in the last 10 games, he’s averaging over 21 DK points. Arizona is up to seventh in ISO so this isn’t a sure thing but Darvish or Mikolas should be the SP2 and I think I might actually lean toward Darvish as my choice.
Punt Range
Zach Davies
He could be sneaky on the other side of the Darvish matchup and this would be no sure thing. However, the Padres almost will surely be missing Manny Machado after a scary-looking ankle injury yesterday and even with Machado playing at a very high level, San Diego is 20th in OPS and wOBA, 25th in ISO, and 17th in wRC+. Davies is really nothing special but he does have a 26% K rate when facing a righty and a 3.67 xFIP to go along with a .290 wOBA. The left side is at .309 and the K rate plummets to just 13% and his changeup is likely the reason. The whiff rate is 35.6% and that’s used more when facing a righty and it has the most strikeouts of the arsenal at 29. The matchup wasn’t scary with Machado and obviously gets so much better without him.
Missed The Cut
Logan Webb – This spot profiles about as well as it could for a pitcher facing Atlanta but Webb has been very hard to get a grip on this season. Sure, the 33 DK start last time out is great but in the two previous games, he didn’t clear 10.9 DK. The Braves are third in K rate when facing a righty pitcher at 25.6% and Webb has been excellent against the left side of the plate with a 2.46 FIP, a .245 wOBA, and the K rate is over 22%. Still, there has been no stability with Webb in the least and he’s been worse on the road.
Lance Lynn – He’s super cheap this time around and his xFIP from the first start was only 3.64, a stark contrast to the 6.23 ERA. Lynn also threw 88 pitches so that aspect is encouraging and he was good against the seven righties he faced, typical of Lynn. Still, this is a really good offense and I can’t get behind going against the Jays at this point.
Josh Winckowski – I wanted to go after him against the Tigers at such a cheap salary and I believe you can in larger-field MME style. The main issues are he should face five lefties and through 17 hitters faced, LHH has a 50% fly-ball rate, 6.64 FIP, and a 5.21 xFIP. I grant you, it’s not a large sample size at all and that’s why he’s not totally out of play. We all know the Tigers offense has been horrid, although you wouldn’t know it from the past two games.
Stacks
Angels
Red Sox (heavy LHH)
Cubs
Blue Jays
Pirates – Oneil Cruz is back up with the big boys and he has immense power in that bat and he swiped 11 bases in AAA this year. The team overall is DIRT cheap and Caleb Kilian for the Cubs has an xFIP over 6.20 against each side of the plate. They could be key to fitting everything we want.
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