Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/17
It’s Friday and you know what that means, a full slate of MLB action! We may have the traditional aces on the slate for name value, but it is deceptive because there aren’t a ton of great choices. This article may be the shortest with a slate this size but I feel strongly that these are the pitchers that I’ll be targeting. That doesn’t mean you can’t play other players but I’m finding it easy to take stands early on and frankly, almost anything is better than yesterday. Let’s not waste any time and get right to work in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/17 to find our pitchers!
Aces
Carlos Rodon
Rodon got back in the saddle in his last start with eight strikeouts and that was against the Dodgers, let alone the Pirates lineup. They may get some power reinforcements as Oneil Cruz continues to be rumored as a call-up but he doesn’t solve all the issues with the Pittsburgh offense. They strike out at the third-highest rate in baseball against lefty pitching and sit 24th against fastballs, which is a very poor matchup with Rodon on the other side. He’s throwing it 63.8% of the time and has a 24.6% whiff rate, 52 strikeouts, and a .317 wOBA when using it and it’s sitting over 96 mph for the average speed. Rodon also features a K rate over 30% and a 13.1% swinging-strike rate, some big numbers for under five digits on DK. Pittsburgh is 14th in ISO so Rodon may give up a home run or two but the upside here is immense and even righties have a 29.3% K rate, a wOBA under .300, and a 3.27 xFIP.
Tarik Skubal
This is not the best slate for aces overall and I will be very light on pitchers at $9,000 or above but Skubal checks the boxes for someone I do want to look at. I’m not concerned at all that he struggled with the Blue Jays lineup because most will and he still has a 2.84 xFIP, a 2.30 FIP, and 2.71 ERA so that all lines up. The K rate is 27.6% and the swinging-strike rate is 12.2% to go along with the career-high 29.3% CSW. Both the slider and four-seam have a whiff rate over 22.5% while Texas is 17th against the slider and 23rd against the fastball. Texas is not the easiest matchup Skubal will ever draw so I do prefer Rodon for just $900 more because Texas is top 10 in wRC+, wOBA, and ISO. Still, even righties haven’t done much damage against him with a 2.27 FIP, a K rate right at 27.8%, and a wOBA under .275. I could see him getting lost in the shuffle on this slate.
Mid-Range
Frankie Montas
I feel like if I didn’t write up Montas at $8,300 on DK, Ghost would teleport from Canada and run me over with a moose or something. Fortunately, Montas is in a good spot regardless of the Ghost factor and he’s pitching at home, as he’s done for 57.2 innings this season. In that split, he’s put up a 2.81 ERA, a .263 wOBA, the K rate is 28.3%, and the xFIP has been fairly static regardless at 2.96. The Royals everyday lineup is mostly balanced but does have a lean toward righty hitters and that’s a plus for Montas as well with a 29.9% K rate against the right side. Despite only eight strikeouts, the slider is the secondary pitch when facing a lefty and it has a 41.3% whiff rate while setting up the four-seam/splitter mix which has 64 strikeouts in total. The Kansas City lineup isn’t rife with strikeouts but Montas has been far too good this season to be this cheap and I’d assume he’s going to be the SP2 for a lot of folks tonight, and he should be. One of the main reasons Montas could be chalk is the mid-range is fairly bereft of options tonight and Montas is the only one in strong consideration for me.
Punt Range
Jon Gray
We’ve had slates lately where Gray has been chalk and this could potentially be one of them. Perhaps he’s the SP2 ahead of Montas but regardless, his 4.85 ERA is far higher than the 3.76 xFIP and Gray does have a K rate of 26% backed up by an 11.4% swinging-strike rate. We really don’t get that raw K rate for this salary too often and I don’t want to paint Gray as a free square but he does draw one of the better matchups that he can. Detroit is up to fifth in K rate overall when facing righties and they have fallen to dead last in every offensive category. If that wasn’t enough, Detroit is also dead last against the fastball and 28th against the slider, both of which are the main pitches for Gray. That makes up about 85% of the arsenal and the slider especially has been good with a 37.4% whiff rate and 32 strikeouts. The fly-ball rate is a bit high but by everything we have in front of us, Gray is in a fantastic spot and he’s shown upside in two of the past three starts.
Ross Stripling
It should go without saying that any pitcher against the Yankees has a higher chance of flopping but Stripling has turned some heads with his performances in the past two starts. He’s made it through 11 innings, only allowed two hits, zero runs, and struck out just six but he’s generating a big ground ball rate. He’s over 54% on the season and that’s one way to neutralize the Yankee offense, not to mention he’s been stronger when facing righties. The wOBA is .273 but the K rate jumps up to 22.3% and the xFIP is actually lower at 3.35. His slider only has a .259 wOBA against it along with a 23% whiff rate and that’s his main pitch when facing righties, with the four-seam coming behind it. A concern is the Yanks are the best team against the slider but they are also being carried in that category by Aaron Judge (shocker, right?) and Giancarlo Stanton. Needless to say, Stripling has to avoid those hitters anyway and the big ground ball rate can do just that. His count should be up to about 90 if he can make it that far, and this could be a strong pivot to potential Gray chalk.
Honorable Mention
This may be more for 20-max formats but Zach Thompson is mildly interesting. He’s had some success against the left side of the plate with a .260 wOBA, a .208 average, and an 18.9% K rate. The xFIP is still 4.26 so it could certainly go south but he will also face as many as six lefties. San Francisco can be a tough offense to attack but Thompson has held his ERA under 2.40 since the start of May with a wOBA under .270 and his strikeout rate has come up a tick as well.
We’re going to need to play this one by ear, but Bailey Falter is on the radar. This will be the second game of a doubleheader and even though Washington is not the offense we target with lefties generally, that is subject to change. The Nats have the best K rate against lefties at 17.5% but we could see an easier lineup in the second game and Falter has been lights out at AAA this year with a 1.54 ERA, 3.22 xFIP, and a 33.7% K rate. That’s enough to raise some eyebrows and if hitters like Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz, or Josh Bell sit out, it changes the calculus.
Missed The Cut
Clayton Kershaw – This list is bigger than normal since we have a lot of big names that I’m just not interested in. As a reminder, there are paths to success and these are good pitchers but I’m chasing the best possible spots on the slate since it’s so big. I’m not even giving Kershaw much consideration as he only threw 71 pitches in the last start, his first since the start of May. He’s likely to top out at 85 pitches and I can’t pay the top salary for that.
Pablo Lopez – Along the same lines, Lopez had this start pushed back due to a wrist injury that he sustained on the 10th. Sure, it’s not a long layoff but the fact that he had to be pushed back makes me nervous and the Mets aren’t the ideal matchup anyway with a K rate under 20%.
Lucas Giolito – Houston only whiffs 20.7% of the time, which is not a good start. I will say Giolito has a 30.7% K rate and his 3.28 xFIP is lower than the 3.88 ERA. The largest issue in my eyes is his struggles against righty hitters, which is the majority of the Houston lineup most nights. They have a 6.24 FIP, a 2.73 HR/9, and a wOBA over .400. While he could neutralize the lefties with a 39.6% K rate, the normal Astros lineup will not do him any favors.
Carlos Carrasco – The Marlins are better than most think and they’re likely going to be righty-heavy tonight. That has been the worse side for Carrasco with a 3.72 xFIP, a 22.1% K rate, and a .313 wOBA. Miami only whiffs 21.9% of the time and they are in the top five in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+.
Robbie Ray – I’d rather use some of the top-of-the-order hitters against him, even though he always has strikeout upside. The HR/9 is over 1.55 against both sides of the plate and the Angels have some big-time power at the top of the lineup.
Stacks
Twins
Phillies
Mariners (LHH)
Padres
Rockies
D-Backs
Dodgers
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