Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/15
The main slate tonight has only nine games but the top end of the salary grid is loaded with quality options including arguably the best fantasy pitcher in all of baseball so far. Oh, Corbin Burnes is on this slate as well so we have some interesting choices to make. There is also at least one strong option in the punt range so we can try unique builds in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/15!
Aces
Shane McClanahan
It’s comforting to know that in this crazy world, we can bank on Shane O’Mac coming out every start and doing magical things with a baseball. Sure, the Yankees are dangerous against lefty pitchers but McClanahan has been a different breed this season and leads the league in K rate over 37% while also boasting a swinging-strike rate of 16.9%. That’s what happens when three of four pitches have a whiff rate over 34.5% and you can still whip in a four-seam that can touch 99 mph. His xFIP is 2.02, the FIP is 2.45, and the ERA is just 1.87 and while we know he’s going to have a bad start here and there, absolutely nothing in the profile suggests that’s happening tonight. Neither side is over a .245 wOBA, both sides whiff over 35%, and both sides have a matching 0.86 WHIP. It’s hard to find anything to not like here.
Joe Musgrove
Provided there isn’t a crazy and in Wrigley to deal with, this could wind up being a great spot for Musgrove because the Cubs tend to play 5-6 righty hitters and that’s directly in the wheelhouse for Big Joe. He’s significantly better when facing a righty hitter with a .218 wOBA, 0.76 WHIP, a walk rate of just 2.4%, and an xFIP of 2.96. The K rate drops a bit to 24.4% but everything else improves so that it’s a wash with the 26.6% mark he has when facing a lefty. No pitch is thrown more than 28.5% and the slider leads the pack there with a 37.7% whiff rate and 27 strikeouts while the four-seam and curve have 20 each. The Cubs are just 13th when facing a slider and even the 3.17 xFIP in total doesn’t worry me much, although I obviously don’t expect Musgrove to carry a 1.50 ERA through the season. His ground ball rate is over 46% and the hard-hit rate is under 24%, a perfect mix to put up a big score in Wrigley.
The Padres elected to move Musgrove and start Ryan Weathers and with the perfect hitting conditions in Wrigley tonight, this game has turned into a chalk-fest for hitters.
Nestor Cortes
He’s already faced the Rays once and scored 27 DK on them in an eight-inning start and this may not be the best spot for strikeouts ever since the Rays are barely over 17% as a team. Tampa is also just 16th when facing a cutter and the version from Cortes has only allowed a .238 wOBA and it has 31 strikeouts. He also has a 0.84 HR/9, a FIP of 2.85, a K rate of 28.6%, and a barrel rate under 5%. It can be tough to make good contact against Cortes since the hard-hit rate is also just 25.3% and even the 43.8% fly-ball rate doesn’t seem to be a massive issue with just a 3.24 xFIP. Righties only have a .253 wOBA against Cortes and if the Rays try to play lefties, Cortes counters with a 35.5% K rate and a 0.67 WHIP. I likely favor Musgrove with the splits, but both pitchers just get the job done this year.
Honorable Mention
Corbin Burnes will never be all the way out of play, regardless of any circumstance but he has pitched worse than McClanahan and doesn’t have an easy matchup either. The Mets have the second-lowest K rate against righties in the majors and Burnes is under 32% for the K rate. Don’t get it confused, that’s still third-highest in the majors so it’s not bad by any stretch but Burnes has had some varied results lately. He only throws them a combined 17% of the time but his sinker/slider combo has gotten roughed up in 2022 compared to 2021. Last year, the slider had a .151 wOBA and this year it’s at .272 while the sinker has skyrocketed from .229 to .516. After he only allowed seven home runs in 2021, Burnes is already at nine this year and six have come from the slider/sinker, not great considering how much he throws them. With a 1.51 HR/9 against the right side of the plate, we could potentially get a low-owned Pete Alonso and I think Burnes will be fine, but paying off the salary is a question. I would never tell anyone they’re wrong for playing him, just point out that his past few starts have been like riding the roller coaster.
Mid-Range
Jose Berrios
We actually have a reasonable salary for Berrios, who has scored at least 18 DK in four of his past five starts and there is some hope that he’s got his mojo working. In the past two starts, he’s thrown 15 innings, allowed three earned runs, walked three hitters, allowed eight hits, and has 18 strikeouts. Berrios has thrown the curveball over 30% of the time in four of the past five and in his four good starts, it totaled 2.9 FanGraphs points and in the one poor one, it got hammered for -1.6. Getting that curve working is not only a big deal just for him in general but the Orioles are third against it so they will smack around a bad curve. His metrics are all still ugly and out of whack, so we have to hope that the past two starts represent the turnaround which also has a .215 wOBA, a 32.7% K rate, and a 2.51 xFIP. Baltimore is creeping up to almost a 23% K rate so there is a tangible upside for Berrios tonight.
Spencer Strider
Washington isn’t our favorite target to use pitchers against because they don’t help out too much with a K rate of just 20.1% against righties. However, the walk rate is barely above 7% and they’re only 17th in wRC+, 16th in wOBA, 23rd in ISO, and 17th in OPS. Since moving into the rotation, Strider has only thrown 14 innings but his pitch count has climbed with each start and he topped out at 92 last time out. His K rate is holding strong at 33.3% and the ERA hasn’t moved much from his mark when he was a reliever at 2.57 and the xFIP is barely over 3.00. We could hope Juan Soto sat out another game but that remains to be seen and his four-seam remains his weapon of choice at over 65% of the time in his three starts. Washington is sixth against the fastball but the bottom line is Strider is still extremely cheap for what he can put out there. The Nationals may not be the ideal dance partner but he can still score over 20 so he’s worth consideration.
Punt Range
Roansy Contreras
The strikeout matchup isn’t perfect but I’m happier attacking the Cardinals lineup with a righty pitcher since St. Louis is 21st in ISO, 18th in wOBA, 13th in wRC+, 18th in OPS, and 13th in OBP. The young righty for the Bucks has a 3.31 xFIP, a 3.25 FIP, and an ERA of just 2.57. He’s also striking out 28.2% of the hitters he faces with a walk rate under 8%, positive signs for a long pitcher in the majors. His 14.5% swinging-strike rate is a big number and the slider has generated a 48.7% whiff rate and 19 strikeouts with a .241 wOBA. The Cards are this when facing a fastball but they also dip down to 18th when facing a slider so Contreras does have that in his favor. His splits do present a bit of a worry with a .353 wOBA against righty hitters but the K rate is 30% and the xFIP is lower than the left side at 3.18. After all, we’re only talking 28 innings pitched in total this year so splits may not be the best thing to judge by and the .378 BABIP is pretty high. Contreras hasn’t earned any type of trust yet, but DK won’t raise his salary either.
Missed The Cut
Tyler Anderson – I’m not in a huge rush to target the Angels lineup now that they are healthier but they are only mid-pack in wOBA and wRC+ against lefties. They also still carry a high K rate of 23.9% and Anderson is solid at 23.4% himself but his xFIP against the right side is 3.78. He could have a strong start but I’m not thrilled with the salary so I likely skip him.
David Peterson/Jack Flaherty – These guys both fall into the same bucket for me because I have concerns about the pitch count. Peterson gets a Milwaukee lineup that can hit lefties when they’re healthy and he only threw 45 pitches in his last appearance and hasn’t crossed five innings since the 23rd of May. For Flaherty, he’ll make his season debut but he only is stretched out to 58 pitches. That’s not quite enough for $8,100 on DK in my eyes, even against a Pirates team that has lost nine straight.
Caleb Kilian – The Padres couldn’t hit Kyle Hendricks last night and Kilian had a solid big league debut, striking out six and allowing three earned. He generated a 54.5% ground ball rate, a 3.11 xFIP, and a 10.8% swinging-strike rate. In AAA this season, he has a 25.7% K rate so he has that ability and the ground ball rate is even higher at almost 58%. That’s a good combo to take chances on in the bottom range if you don’t believe Contreras can get it done.
Stacks
Blue Jays
Rockies
Dodgers
Braves
Red Sox
A’s
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