Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/12
We actually have a regular-size Sunday slate with 10 games, although the pitching leaves something to be desired. We have some options at just about every level but they may not be the best options we’ve ever seen. Let’s talk about who’s going to make sense on the slate in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/12 and find green screens!
Aces
Kyle Wright
We normally just go by salary but they aren’t far apart and I love Wright today. The Pirates have been strikeout machines lately (leading the league at 26.3% against righties over the past 14 days) and Wright has a 27.2% K rate, a swinging-strike rate of 12.8%, and a 2.75 WHIP. As we saw yesterday and Friday with Spencer Strider and Charlie Morton, the upside is immense as those two totaled 20 strikeouts themselves. Wright has only allowed a 0.40 HR/9 and while his 3.26 xFIP tells us that is pretty low, Pittsburgh isn’t making enough contact to counteract his strikeout prowess. The Pirates are also only 20th when facing a curveball and that is the main pitch for Wright at 31.7% of the time and it carries a 36.7% whiff rate with 32 strikeouts. Both sides of the plate have a .250 wOBA or lower and the right side is at a matching 2.43 FIP/xFIP. Lefties could give him some small bit of trouble with a 4.18 xFIP so a one-off like Bryan Reynolds is interesting, but Wright is in one to dominate.
Justin Verlander
I didn’t love him in the last start and he laughed in my face as he whiffed 12 hitters and scored 37 DK points. He threw his fastball only 42% in the last start, the fewest of the season and I wonder if that’s something that could turn into a trend. The slider and curve both have whiff rates of at least 32.9% and they have combined for 57 of 73 strikeouts. It’s not crazy to think Verlander could embrace a shift in the arsenal to accentuate what still does extremely well for him, sort of like Clayton Kershaw. That is speculation on my part but he’s got his K rate up to 27%, the swinging-strike rate is 11.2%, and the xFIP is only 3.38. I suspect that may wind up being higher than the ERA all season since Verlander is allowing a 43.8% fly-ball rate but he generally knows exactly how to keep runs off the board. He also has both sides of the plate at a .252 wOBA or under and there isn’t anything to stand out against him past the Marlins being a great offense on paper. They’re in the top five in wOBA and wRC+ and that may not matter for the wily veteran.
Mid-Range
Michael Kopech
He should be more expensive in this spot considering he just smacked the Dodgers around, and the Texas lineup is not that good. They are mid-pack in basically everything including the K rate over the past 14 days with two exceptions. One is ISO where they are ninth but the other is OBP where they are 24th. That’s not the worst combo and perhaps the biggest worry is that Kopech is worse against lefties with a .270 wOBA and a 4.96 xFIP but he also features a 29.3% K rate against that side of the plate so things aren’t all bad. The 65.9% fly ball rate is a big reason the xFIP is so high but his curve is more prevalent to the left side and it has the best whiff rate at 30.4%. His fastball has the most strikeouts at 34 and Texas is just 24th against that pitch, a boost for Kopech. With a 25.5% K rate and a 10.3% swinging-strike rate, he makes a lot of sense here and I could see him being a popular SP2.
Jameson Taillon
I’m keeping it short with him because he sort of drives me nuts. The K rate is only 18.7% and his xFIP of 3.68 is still almost a full run higher than the 2.73 ERA but aside from the last start, he’s been mostly successful. Taillon does generate a 27.2% hard-hit rate to couple with his 44.3% ground ball rate and it is easier to stomach him at this salary as opposed to over $9,000 as he has been through a lot of the season. The swinging-strike rate is still under 10% and the lineup may not cooperate with his splits either. The Cubs could play six righties and allow has a .312 wOBA, 3/78 xFIP, and just a 15.9% K rate against that side of the plate. On paper, Kopech makes much more sense so here comes 25 DK from Taillon once again. The Cubs are sixth in OBP so they can be pesky on the right day.
Ranger Suarez
I’d rather play Suarez who has a much friendlier matchup against the D-Backs, who rank in the bottom five in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and OBP to go along with a 25% K rate and the seventh-highest ground ball rate. Suarez has been tough to get right this season but since May, the xFIP has been below 4.00 and the K rate has jumped over 20% and he’s been a little bit better. The right side of the plate only generates a 22.1% hard-hit rate which puts the .348 wOBA as a little bit of an odd metric. His sinker only has a one-degree launch angle on it this season and the D-Backs ranking so high in ground ball rate should help out here. It also helps that they are dead last when facing a changeup and that’s the strikeout pitch for Suarez with a 31.9% whiff rate and 12 strikeouts, the most outside of the sinker. His price is affordable and he has shown he can score 20+ DK points in any given start, it’s just he can score under five as well.
Punt Range
Ross Stripling
I’m sort of hesitant here but this s about the only pitcher that I can see having a path to success that falls into the punt range. Stripling has gone from 38 to 56 pitches in the past two appearances so I don’t think he’s going more than five innings or 75-ish pitches but this is the Detroit lineup. Even if we shrink the sample to just the past 14 days, they are 30th in wRC+, wOBA, and OBP with a K rate over 25%. Stripling does have a K rate over 201.% although I wouldn’t expect more than 3-5 strikeouts. He’s also generating a 53% ground ball rate and a 24.3% hard-hit rate so the profile is actually fairly strong from a metrics perspective. Detroit is fifth in ground ball rate over the past two weeks and ninth through the whole season, and neither side of the plate is over a .297 wOBA. We could do worse with the matchup considered.
Missed The Cut
I realized that I added this section without much of an explanation, which was my fault. Pitchers who “Miss The Cut” COULD potentially have a good game, but some part of the profile or matchup stick out in a very negative way. I wouldn’t be playing any of these pitchers in cash, SE GPP, or even 3-max. These would be 20-max or deeper options and I think there is a higher risk for a really bad game that sinks any lineup.
Edward Cabrera – If you’re playing a 20-max GPP, perhaps you can get after Cabrera in a few but through two starts, he’s racked up a 12.5% walk rate, a 4.66 xFIP compared to his 0.75 ERA, a 100% strand rate, and a .080 BABIP. I’m not sure Houston is the team I want to try that profile against, although he is wildly talented. We’re only talking about a 12-inning sample so there is a good game possible, but he’s not cheap at all.
Graham Ashcraft – I just don’t want to pay up for a pitcher that has a 14.3% K rate and swinging-strike rate under 9%. While he’s getting a 60.6% ground ball rate, that’s driving all of his success and his salary demands strikeouts or close to perfection.
Tarik Skubal – I love Skubal typically but this is such a tough spot. Toronto is in the top five in OPS, OBP, wOBA, and wC+ when facing a lefty. They also lead in walk rate at 11.3% and are 23rd in K rate at just 19.8%. The path to success is there, but it’s narrow. The Jays can be a bust offense (Beau Brieske says hi from Saturday) but the matchup just does not line up well for Skubal.
Jon Gray – He was probably the closest to getting a full write-up with a 3.88 xFIP contrasted with a 5.28 ERA and he does have a K rate over 24%. The issues come from the hard-hit rate of over 30% and a 4.61 xFIP with a 5.94 ERA on the road, not to mention his K splits are titanic. In Texas (only 12.2 IP), it’s over 39% while on the road (33.1 IP) it is only 18.8%. I tend to think the road numbers are more indicative of how he’s pitching although the White Sox struggle when facing righty pitching.
Stacks
Phillies
Braves
Reds
Brewers
Rays
Royals
Yankees
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