Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/1
Almost every team in the majors is going to be available to us with a six-game slate in the morning and eight games in the evening. Pitching is kind of all over the board but I think the evening has better lower-end options on the salary grid. Let’s talk about everything in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/1 and find who’s leading us to green!
Early
I can’t even break the Early slate into our normal tiers because the punt range is unplayable. The cheap pitchers include Madison Bumgarner, Dakota Hudson, Evan Lee, and Antonio Senzatela. Lefty Konnor Pilkington makes another start but his walk rate is over 14% and the xFIP is over 4.20 so he hasn’t shown a lot yet in the majors. The good news is there are hitters that are cheap enough even in Coors Field and in the Mets lineup that we can pitch the two most expensive pitchers on the slate and still get some hitters that we really want.
Justin Verlander might be happy to not be pitching against the Mariners as they’ve given him some grief this season and it halted a three-game streak of scoring 22 DK or more. His K rate is over 25% and even though he’s been a little lucky for the ERA of 2.03 to not match the 3.45 xFIP, it’s hard to not look at him in this spot. The A’s strikeout over 24% of the time when facing righties and the whiff rates are above 28.5% on his curve and slider this season. With this slate being a day game after night game, we’ll find punts to make this fit with some heavy hitters.
Kyle Wright gets the best strikeout matchup on the slate among pitchers we want to roster (technically it’s MadBum but no thank you) as the D-Backs whiff over 25% when facing a righty, one of just three teams to do so. Wright is a little worse against the left side of the plate with a 25.3% K rate and a 4.05 xFIP but that’s still plenty of strikeouts to chase. He has started to see some instability in his results with 15, -0.1, and 9.8 in his past five games but the other two are 27 and 24. Lastly, the D-Backs are 27th against the curve this season and that is the main pitch for Wright at 31.6% with 26 strikeouts and a 37.1% whiff rate.
I still have some issues with Yu Darvish since he has a 4.04 xFIP and a 20.7% K rate, not to mention the fact that the swinging-strike rate is down to 10.9% and the Cardinals have one of the three lowest K rates against righties. It isn’t going to help Darvish all that much that he’s a little worse against righty hitters with a 4.30 xFIP and a 1.15 WHIP and his four-seam is still really struggling with just a 16% whiff rate and the cutter has a .417 wOBA allowed. The Cards are just 17th when facing cutters but they are third against fastballs.
Honorable Mention
I get some may turn to Carlos Carrasco and he’s been solid this year, with wOBA’s of .300 or lower against each side of the plate, and the xFIP’s don’t climb over 3.73. He’s just not carrying the same strikeout upside as the top two pitchers at just 21.4% himself and Washington is only whiffing 20.3% of the time.
Aces (Main)
Robbie Ray
He is the least expensive of the Ace options but he has the best matchup and the strikeout upside is immense. He’s hit at least eight strikeouts in five of the past six games and the K rate has climbed to 27.1%. Sure, that may not seem like much but in May he sported a 33.3% K rate with a 2.81 xFIP and a 5.34 ERA. He’s due some serious regression and when that happens with eight whiffs or more, there are 30+ DK points to be had here. Baltimore is seventh when facing a slider so that is a small concern but Ray throws it 41% of the time and still gets a 44.3% whiff rate and it has 38 strikeouts. The Orioles have the third-highest K rate when facing a lefty pitcher at 26.2% and they are no higher than 24th in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, ISO, or OBP so there isn’t a box that Ray doesn’t check tonight.
Nestor Cortes
This is going to be a very interesting matchup since the Angels are the number one team against the cutter but if someone can overcome that, it’s Cortes. His cutter has racked up 28 strikeouts and only has a .225 wOBA allowed so far and the Angels just got worked over by a far less talented pitcher. Cortes is still hovering right at a 3.00 xFIP, the FIP is 2.55, and the ERA is 1.70 with a 30.2% K rate on top of it all. His swinging-strike rate is down to 9.7% and that’s a small red flag at this salary but the called strike rate is 18.6%, the highest of his career. He’s held both sides of the plate under a .240 wOBA and they could have two lefties in the lineup, which would boost Cortes since he has a 42.9% K rate when facing lefty hitters. Even the right side only has a 3.20 xFIP and I’m betting he’s not going to be super popular tonight.
Tarik Skubal
He didn’t have his best stuff in the past game but still grinned his way to five strikeouts, five hits, and three runs allowed in seven innings. He’s another player that draws a tough matchup on paper as the Twins are in the top eight in wOBA and wRC+ when facing lefties, not to mention third in OBP but they are just 17th in ISO. Skubal could hold the power threats at bay as he only has a 0.35 HR/9 and the xFIP is just 2.74 compared to a 2.44 ERA. He also has a K rate over 27% with a swinging-strike rate just under 12% and Skubal has flipped around his pitch mix. The slider is the primary pitch at 30.3% and it leads in strikeouts with 16. However, the four-seam/sinker/change mix all have at least 10 strikeouts themselves and Minnesota is missing Carlos Correa. Skubal is generating a ground ball rate over 48% and even the right side has an xFIP under 3.00 and a wOBA under .280 so there isn’t much to pick on here for him past the salary is a touch high.
Mid-Range
The only realistic option here is Bailey Ober and it’s not one that fills me with confidence. He’s sporting a fly-ball rate over 51% and has an xFIP of 4.29 and since he’s come back from his injury, he’s thrown 78 and 61 pitches. That could potentially cap him at 80 or so and if he wasn’t facing the Tigers, I’m not sure he’d even be on the radar all that much. His slider is the only pitch that has performed well so far with a wOBA of .169 while his four-seam and change are both over .400 so I’m not likely landing here tonight.
Punt Range
Garrett Whitlock
The strikeouts may not have come in the last start but Whitlock did make it through six strong innings with only two runs allowed and five hits. Some may point to his .317 wOBA and 4.34 ERA as a starter as a negative and it is compared with his stats as a reliever. However, I’m still more in the camp that his five-start stretch against some really strong offenses is more to blame than anything else. After all, the xFIP only goes from 2.80 to 3.36 and the K rate still is at 26.2% even with a dip. I’ll take a K rate of 26% at $7,000 all day especially when the Reds offense is striking out at a 24.3% clip this season against righties and they are still in the bottom 10 in wOBA and wRC+. Additionally, they are just 21st against sliders this year and that has been the money pitch for Whitlock as far as whiffs at 42.5%. That and his sinker have 33 of 44 strikeouts and the Reds are also just 24th when facing a fastball. The salary does not reflect the upside, and that’s the case for the next player as well.
Jeffery Springs
Springs has only pitched 33.1 innings this season and the xFIP of 3.23 compared to 1.62 ERA tells us he’s not quite this good but the salary has not caught up yet. The 91.2% strand rate can’t last forever but Springs also has a 26.8% K rate and has allowed just a 6% barrel rate to go along with his 14.6% swinging-strike rate. His changeup usage has increased from 27.8% last year to 39.3% this year and it’s got a 38.9% whiff rate and has 20 of 33 strikeouts although Texas is fifth against that pitch this year. He’s been really nasty when facing righties with a 2.04 FIP, 0.73 WHIP, and the K rate jumps to just about 29%. The Rangers are not a pushover here but Springs has been so good that I’m definitely going after him as an SP2 in some lineups tonight.
Honorable Mention
I want to see what the White Sox lineup looks like when they face Hyun Jin Ryu because he’s pitched better since returning from injury and he’s still dirt cheap. Since the return, he’s pitched 15.2 innings and allowed three runs with 14 hits and two walks. The strikeouts have not been there with just seven but the salary could still be appealing.
Stacks
Yankees
Mariners
Brewers
Red Sox
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