Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/8
It’s a bit of a frustration to know that Shane McClanahan pitches tonight but isn’t on the slate, but we’ll press on. There are some very strong candidates to choose from tonight even if the best is missing and we should have options at every level. Let’s talk about who we need to target tonight to find success in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/8!
Aces
Zack Wheeler
This slate is a little odd because there are a bunch of pitchers that can post an ace-level score, but there isn’t one particular pitcher that stands out in a major way. There’s a tough matchup or some red flags somewhere along the line, but Wheeler could be the best option on paper. Granted, this is the second straight go-around with Cardinals but the last time he went seven scoreless innings with five strikeouts. Wheeler has a 3.03 xFIP and a 2.48 FIP to go along with his 27.9% K rate and a 12.3% swinging-strike rate. That matches last year’s number and is the best Wheeler has put up in his career and the four-seam is sporting a 31.4% whiff rate, 5.4% better than last year. None of his top three pitches have a wOBA over .273 while he’s held both sides of the plate to a wOBA under .310 and they both whiff at least 23.9% of the time. The Cards don’t strike out a ton but Wheeler should be able to go six or seven strong again tonight.
Charlie Morton
We all know at this juncture the Nationals don’t strike out but Morton has been so on his A-game in that facet of the game lately that we have to consider him. Since the start of June, he’s pitched six starts and gone eight, 12, nine, 11, five, and 11 for his strikeouts and his K rate has been closing in on 40%. The xFIP was under 2.15 and the wOBA was hovering around .260 so he’s been lights out over the past 37.2 IP. The left side does have the higher WHIP at 1.44 on the season but even then, the K rate is over 29% and much higher lately. It’s not impossible for pitchers to win in tough matchups and Morton has that chance tonight.
Honorable Mention
I’m not the biggest fan of paying the top salary for Nestor Cortes as the K rate dropped to 22% in the month of June. His xFIP has risen in each month so far and while I expect a strong start, you need a lot of strikeouts and Boston is only at a 21.6% K rate against lefties.
This is a bit of a boom/bust spot for Anderson since the Cubs are outside the top half of the league in OBP and wRC+ while they whiff 23.4% of the time. Now, they are sixth in ISO and 11th in OPS so they certainly have some power but Anderson only has a 0.85 HR/9. The xFIP is 3.96 but his K rate is 21.5% so the Cubs could flop here.
Mid-Range
Pablo Lopez/Chris Bassitt
These are two pitchers that frankly, I don’t know what to do with. Let’s start with Lopez who I generally love but he’s really not been in top form lately. Perhaps he’s being a little too reliant on the four-seam/changeup mix but even then, the wOBA’s allowed are a little lower and the whiff rates are a tad higher. That forces us to look at the cutter which is used 13.1% but it has a .401 wOBA compared to .282 last year. It’s a bit strange to see a pitch under 15% really set the pitcher back but that’s the one aspect that looks off. His wOBA has been over .300 since the start of May and the K rate continues to drop while the xFIP comes up. With the Mets whiffing the second-least on the season against righties, this is a tough matchup for a very talented Lopez.
As for Bassitt, it’s no easy task to figure him out. He’s coming back from Covid which could limit him in some way, and we may not know about it beforehand. He also wasn’t exactly great shakes before that as, since the start of May, his ERA has been around 4.65 with an xFIP around 3.50. The K rate could still be an asset and he should face more righties, always a help. The K rate against righties is 27% for Bassitt because his slider is much more in play. Miami has been much more toward the middle of the pack against righties over the past 30 days so Bassitt has a path but I’d love to hear some type of assurance pre-game on what the expectations are.
Zac Gallen
Getting the Rockies outside of Coors is always a better end of things and Gallen is priced where he’s actually playable for once. The K rate is still under 23% with a swinging-strike rate under 10% and part of that is the fastball is being used at over 48% and only has a 14.8% whiff rate. What could turn into an issue is the Rockies are second against the changeup this year and that pitch is the worst for Gallen with a .372 wOBA allowed and only 15 strikeouts. Still, he gets a solid ground ball rate at 45.6% and both sides of the plate are under a .300 wOBA. I wouldn’t say Gallen is the best play on the slate but the matchup is enticing. t’s nice to see that the WHIP is under 1.20 against both sides as well and he’s just not the most reliable pitcher we’re going to come across.
Lucas Giolito
Could Giolito be on the way back? I’m not sure if it matters since DK priced him at $7,800 so I expect him to be stone chalk. That opens up a discussion about playing/fading him but we’ll see just how high he goes. It was a strong start last time around with seven strikeouts through six innings and just three hits. That’s a big improvement over…well, most of his starts but even with some major struggles this season Giolito has a 27.3% K rate and a 3.70 xFIP compared to his 4.90 ERA. The swinging-strike rate has climbed over 13% and it’s really righties that have given him the most issues with a 2.72 HR/9, a 4.71 xFIP, and a wOBA over .400. There is only one righty in the Detroit lineup that has a wOBA over .300 and Giolito is going to be tough to avoid at this salary in this matchup.
Honorable Mention
I think Jose Urquidy could pick up some steam since he’s against the A’s but this could be one of those trap pitchers. His xFIP is 4.46 and the K rate is just 18.2% with a fly-ball rate over 44%. These are the pitchers that can certainly pop up for great streaming numbers, but if he’s popular I’m likely to fade on a slate this size.
Punt Range
Aaron Ashby
If Giolito is major chalk, Ashby could turn into a dynamite pivot. In the last start against the Pirates, the results weren’t exactly there but his xFIP in that start was 1.87 and his K rate was 37.5%. If he can keep the ball in the park this time around, the strikeouts should flow since Ashby has a 28.1% K rate on the season to go along with a ground ball rate over 60%. Pittsburgh is over 25% for their K rate when facing a lefty on the season but it’s risen to 29% over the past month while ranking in the bottom four in wOBA and wRC+. Even the ISO has dropped to 18th and Ashby has three pitches with a whiff rate over 32%. He’s shown upside before with a 35 DK point game and both sides of the plate whiff at least 27% of the time and the xFIP is no higher than 3.00.
Tyler Wells
Do you feel lucky enough to use a Baltimore pitcher twice in a row? Jordan Lyles paid off yesterday and Wells doesn’t have a ton going for him in the strikeout department but the FIP is only 4.09. Across the career of 132.2 IP, the xFIP is only 4.44 and the K rate is over 20% which the Angles will certainly help out with. They continue to whiff a ton and Wells has only allowed a 6.9% barrel rate and a 24.7% hard-hit rate. He’s held each side of the plate under .290 for the wOBA and he’s recovered nicely from a rough start. After May started, the ERA has been under 2.75 and the wOBA has been under .260 so even without a ton of K potential, he’s got some punt appeal against an offense that simply isn’t getting it done. They are outside of the top half of the league in all of our offensive categories.
Missed The Cut
Sonny Gray – I don’t think he gets hammered here but how does he go from $7,300 to $9,700 after a start where he scored under 10 DK points? Texas is in the bottom 10 of our offensive categories and whiff over 23% of the time so the matchup isn’t bad at all. His K rate drops when facing a lefty to 22.8% although the WHIP is 0.92 and the xFIP is 3.72. It’s really just a salary issue here as the matchup isn’t exceptionally scary.
Stacks
Yankees (if healthy)
White Sox
Orioles
Brewers
Dodgers
Mariners/Blue Jays
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/8 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
