Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/27
We get a split slate today but the focus will be on the larger slate in the afternoon which is seven games. The pitching is not great but it could be plenty worse and we do have to deal with Coors Field again as well. Let’s talk about who we need to chase in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/27 to find green screens!
Aces
Corbin Burnes
He’s not invincible with some below-average starts but he’s clearly the most talented pitcher available to us on the slate. Even with some frustrating starts, the xFIP is 2.89, the ERA s 2.20, the ground ball rate is 43.1%, and the K rate is 32.1% overall. It’s a little surprising to see the drop in K rate from over 35% last year because the swinging-strike rate is 16.3%, only 0.3% lower than 2021. He has turned to the cutter more at 56.4% and why not since it has a .257 wOBA and a 31.3% whiff rate. Both sides of the plate are under a .270 wOBA, neither WHIP is over 0.95, and the K rate is identical against each side as well. Minnesota is not the easiest matchup as they are in the top 10 in OPS, OBP, wOBA, wRC+, and ISO with a K rate of only 22.2%. I’m sure we’ll need him for cash and I’ll likely have plenty in GPP, but I don’t believe this is a must-have spot for him.
Jon Gray
Gray has been simply lethal in his last 50 innings with a 1.80 ERA, a 0.94 WHP, and a 29.7% K rate. Am I a full believer in him? Maybe not but that’s not an insignificant sample and he’s looking good on the seasonal data as well. Neither side of the plate has crossed a .297 wOBA, both sides are striking out at a 25% rate or higher, and the xFIP against either side is under 3.40. The Seattle matchup certainly gets tougher since Julio Rodriguez came back last night but even with him, they are outside of the top 10 in all our offensive categories except for wRC+. The slider does really well for Gray with 63 strikeouts and a 40.3% whiff rate while Seattle is just 24th against that pitch. Just like Burnes, the matchup is not the best thing he’s ever going to find but the salary is reasonable. That’s not exactly what I thought I would say this year at $9,000.
Honorable Mention
It’s hard to get behind Logan Webb fully since he’s been worse against lefties with a .309 wOBA, an 18.4% K rate, and a 1.30 WHIP I do have to point out that the xFIP is only 3.64 and the Arizona offense is very boom or bust. They are ninth in ISO but 25th in wRC+ and 21st in wOBA. They’ve brought their K rate under control as well to just 22.7% so I’m more likely to play the other two.
Mid-Range
Cristian Javier
I suspect Burnes/Javier is going to be the most popular pairing for pitching since he draws the Oakland lineup and is under $9,000. Pitching in Oakland is a great spot since he has a giant fly-ball rate of 59.8% even though he did struggle in the first start out there. He just didn’t have great control and he went 3-2 on a lot of hitters that night. Still, he has a 13.8% swinging-strike rate and his four-seam/slider combo have 108 of his 117 strikeouts on the season. The slider has a 39.1% whiff rate and a .231 wOBA allowed and his K rate when facing a righty is absurd at 41.9% with an xFIP under 2.95. Oakland whiffs almost 24% of the time and are in the bottom five of every offensive category we value. It’s hard to not consider him at this salary and with the slate context. It is worth noting that the A’s have gotten to the Houston starters so far and I wonder if the field reacts after Garcia got beat up a bit.
Zac Gallen
Overall, I don’t think Gallen is anything special with a 3.83 xFIP, a 3.31 ERA, and a 23.5% K rate. The WHIP is strong at 1.02 and his hard-hit rate is under 28% so it’s not like he’s terrible or anything like that. What is extra appealing for him today is he is better when facing a lefty with a .246 wOBA, a 24.5% K rate, a WHIP of 0.84, and an xFIP of 3.44. The scary part is Gallen relies on a fastball 49% of the time and it has a 17.4% whiff rate and a .290 wOBA allowed. It does lead his arsenal in strikeouts with 42 so that is good but the Giants are third against the fastball this season. It’s also a boost for Gallen that he’s pitching at home with a 3.24 FIP overall and the K rate is 25% so he’s absolutely in play.
Punt Range
Brad Keller
On the surface, there isn’t a ton to love for Keller with a 4.34 xFIP, a 4.35 FIP, and a K rate under 16%. This is way more about the Angels and how putrid the offense is as the past 30 days find them 29th in wOBA, wRC+, and then 28th in OPS, OBP, and ISO with a massive 30.9% K rate. They also have the 10th highest ground ball rate which does help Keller and his 51.6% ground ball rate. Keller doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact at 25.4% and his slider is the main pitch while the Angels are just 18th against it. That slider has a 25.4% whiff rate and 30 of his 68 strikeouts. He does at least have both sides of the plate under .320 and the left side whiffs a little more at 17% so he’s got some potential for his salary, even if there is no safety involved.
Stacks
Coors Field (I’m much happier with both sides of the game today)
Dodgers
Rangers
Astros
Brewers
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