Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/2
We have a hefty slate of afternoon baseball today with the slate kicking off at 4:00 p.m. and some interesting pitching options as well! There is no pitcher in the five digits on this slate, which isn’t something we see very often. Let’s dive in and figure out who we like in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/2 to find green screens!
Aces
Dylan Cease
I would expect Cease to be pretty heavy chalk here (not sure how over 74 DK points in the past two starts combined leaves him under $10,000) due to the slate and the salary. His 35.5% K rate is unbelievable and the 2.51/2.75 FIP/xFIP combo is excellent, as is the 15.9% swinging-strike rate. Now, even with his sky-high ceiling, this could be a bit of a tougher spot as far as his weaker aspects. Normally his 10.9% walk rate doesn’t really worry me with the K rate spiked but the Giants do have the third-highest walk rate when facing a righty at 10%. The next issue is he is worse against lefties at a .315 wOBA, a .307 xFIP, and a 2.27 WHIP and if those numbers sound really good…well, they are. Cease is just a really good pitcher and he’s carrying a 32% K rate when facing a lefty as well, in addition to the .410 BABIP that is ridiculous. There is a case where this could be an average start for him, but the salary is silly low for what he can do.
Tyler Mahle
This is an interesting matchup because Mahle has found his footing and across 33.2 innings in June, he posted a 2.94 ERA, a .291 wOBA, a 28.7% K rate, and a 2.89/3.32 FIP/xFIP combo. Even during the year, as a whole, Mahle was a little better against righty hitters with a 3.69 xFIP and a 1.25 WHIP but this lineup for the Braves is hit-and-miss, sometimes literally. They’re sitting at a 25.5% K rate but they also have the second-highest ISO when facing a righty so Mahle could have a good start or he could get cracked. It’s not the best for Mahle that the Braves are the best fastball team in baseball because he is using that pitch 50.3% of the time and it has allowed seven of nine home runs and a .286 wOBA. I tend to side with Atlanta here but there’s no doubting Mahle has upside.
Mid-Range
Logan Webb
Webb continues to trend upward after June which showed why we were excited about him to start the season. Across his 30.1 IP, his ERA was 2.08 with a .254 wOBA, a 25.8% K rate, a 0.30 HR/9, and a 2.95 xFIP. He’s also done his best work against the right side of the plate and the Sox should give him plenty to eat up with a .235 wOBA, 24.2% K rate, and a 2.50 FIP across the entire season. His slider and changeup mix are the top two pitches and they have 65 of his 81 strikeouts while both have a whiff rate over 27%. That’s a mixed bag for the matchup because the Sox are leading the league against the changeup but they are in the bottom five when facing the slider. Even then, they’re in the bottom 10 of our offensive categories against righties so Webb is in a very solid spot.
Spencer Strider
I don’t think anyone has the point-per-dollar upside to match Strider because he’s been fantastic as a starter. The ERA might look too high at 3.68 but the xFIP of 2.70 is an almost identical match to his 2.72 mark as a reliever. The K rate has “dropped” to 34.1% and the only thing that looks off is the strand rate at 67.1%. Overall, the Cincy lineup could break well for him because his best strikeout side is against righties at a massive 40% and the FIP is 2.18. Strider does have a high walk rate at 14.7% when facing a righty but the Reds are just 22nd at 7.7%. When Strider lets his slider rip, it has a 52% whiff rate and a .168 wOBA and his slider/four-seam combo s about all he throws. Cincy is only 18th against the fastball and 25th against the slider so this is a reasonable spot for him to flirt with 25 DK points, even though he doesn’t have a long track record.
Brady Singer
By the looks of some of his metrics, Singer has been unlucky with a 3.57 xFIP compared to a 4.33 ERA, although the FIP is at 4.20. The cause looks to be a 16.1% HR/FB rate which is about 2% higher than his career rate but he still has a K rate of 22.1%. Detroit is 27th when facing a slider and that’s the pitch doing the most work for Singer with a 38.8% whiff rate and 29 of 49 strikeouts. The lineup is still important since Singer is not hanging that side. They have a 6.13 FIP, a 2.66 xFIP, and a .361 wOBA so even though it’s the Tigers, it’s not like this is the most stable spot for him (nor is he someone that is a bankable pitcher).
Honorable Mention
There is talent with George Kirby but we’ve had a tough time seeing it in the majors. That’s far from all his fault but he’s been under 17.5 DK points in seven of 10 starts. The K rate is down to 21.8% and he has not handled the right side of the plate well at all with a .417 wOBA, a 3.04 HR/9, and a 6.43 FIP. Granted, the Oakland lineup isn’t brimming with quality righties (they are in the bottom three in all offensive categories) but I’m not over the moon for Kirby today.
Punt Range
Aaron Ashby
This is not the safest pick but you have to be looking his way to some extent in this spot. The K rate for the Pirates against a lefty pitcher over the past 14 days is 30.2% and they’re in the bottom four of OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and OBP. Ashby has only spent the minimum time on the IL so that is encouraging and in the previous four starts ahead of the injury, he threw at least 91 pitches in all four games. On the year, Ashby has a 3.08 xFIP with a 4.25 ERA but his K rate is 27.5% and the ground ball rate is 62.2%. That’s perfect to try and limit the power the Buccos can show (14th in ISO) and even when Ashby is starting, the K rate remains at 25%. His splits against lefties might look rough but the BABIP is an absurd .500. That isn’t a concern for me even though the Pirates might be playing quite a few lefties today. I’m not sure if we’ll get a pitch count but Patrick Corbin just dropped almost 40 points on this lineup.
Honorable Mention
I’m not sure if we’ll see Jose Urquidy pick up the steam that Cristian Javier did yesterday, but the Angels do strike out a ton. Urquidy doesn’t take advantage of that much with a 17% K rate and a 4.54 xFIP, both reasons I wouldn’t normally include him. Each side of the plate also has at least a .335 wOBA so there is a significant risk.
Missed The Cut
Kyle Gibson – Since the start of May, his ERA is over 4.80 and the wOBA is over .330, not the most encouraging stretch. The Cardinals don’t strike out and Gibson has a higher xFIP when facing a lefty and then a higher wOBA when facing a righty.
Stacks
Brewers
Marlins/Nationals Game Stack
Mariners
Phillies
Braves
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