Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/14
The large slates continue as we barrel toward the All-Star break so we have 11 games tonight and a ton of options once again. That makes me nervous for the next couple of days since the past two days have been so rife with options but that’s a problem for the next day. Let’s talk about all the guys we like tonight in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/14 and find green screens!
Aces
Corbin Burnes
Burnes has found his best self in the past five games with at least six innings pitched in each game and he’s hit at least eight strikeouts in four of those five starts to go along with at least 25 DK points. That has brought him up to a 32.4% K rate, a 2.84 xFIP, a 2.99 FIP, and a swinging-strike rate of 16.6%. That’s the highest among qualified starters and matches last season for him when he won the Cy Young. He should face plenty of lefties with San Francisco and that’s a great thing for his upside as lefties have a .241 wOBA, a 32.3% K rate, a 0.55 HR/9, and the xFIP/FIP combo is below 2.50. San Francisco is also dead last against the cutter so that’s another boost for Burnes and I’ll have zero issues playing him in any format.
Framber Valdez
How can we not want to go back to the well if Mike Trout is still sitting out? Sure, the K rate is only 21.2% but the ground ball rate is right under 67% which leads the league and the xFIP is only 3.22. He went for 30 DK in his last start against the Angels and they are 23rd or worse in OPS, ISO, wOBA, wRC+, and OBP to go along with a K rate of almost 25%. His hard-hit rate is barely over 28% and even though his sinker is being used 50% of the time with just a 12.4% whiff rate, his curve has 58 strikeouts and a 39.5% whiff rate. Even the right side of the plate only has a .265 wOBA and we’re almost at a 70% ground ball rate as well. Los Angeles is 24th against the curve so Valdez is going to be a very strong option regardless of Trout’s status.
Carlos Rodon
He’s certainly been up-and-down lately but when he’s on, he can score 45 DK points and throw a complete game. That’s not super likely tonight but the Brewers just haven’t hit lefties well this year, a bit of a surprise. They rank 22nd in OPS, 17th in ISO, 22nd in wOBA, wRC+, and the whiff 23.4% of the time. Rodon has perhaps been a little unlucky with a 2.14 FIP compared to a 2.70 ERA while the K rate has hit 31% to go along with a 25.9% hard-hit rate. He’s generating a 14.1% swinging-strike rate even though he’s using a four-seam 61.9% of the time. It has 73 strikeouts with a 25.7% whiff rate and his slider is down to a .226 wOBA allowed. Milwaukee is 11th against the fastball this season so that is a concern for Rodon but with the ineptitude that the Brewers have overall when facing lefty pitching, that’s far from a deal-breaker. His K rate is over 29% regardless of which side of the plate he’s facing this year and the wOBA’s are under .260 so we could be in line for a big pitching duel on the Bay tonight.
Mid-Range
Luis Castillo
If I’m going to attack the Yankees, I want a really strong righty pitcher and Castillo is averaging over 20 DK in his last 10 starts while his ERA has dropped below 3.00 and the xFIP is only 3.22. The K rate is over 25% and his top two pitches (four-seam/changeup) have whiff rates over 25.5%. Castillo is auditioning for a trade here and seeing how he does in this environment could go a long way for him as far as teams really go after acquiring him. I also need pitchers that are better against the right side when targeting Yankees and Castillo checks that box as well with a .252 wOBA, a K rate of almost 28%, a FIP of 2.37, an xFIP of 2.87, and a HR/9 of 0.47. I’m not sure how popular he’s going to be but I will have interest in GPP for sure.
Kevin Gausman
I didn’t really want to pitch Gausman since he’s been off for almost two weeks but then the Royals threw a wrench into that. They will be missing seven position players for their trip to Toronto and that includes multiple starters. Simply put, this offense is going to be made up mostly of AAA and maybe some AA players and Gausman is still a very good pitcher. He had a bit there where things really went south for him but overall, he still has a 2.81 xFIP, a 1.68 FIP, and a 2.86 ERA with a 27% K rate. I don’t even know who’s going to be in the Royals lineup so their seasonal ranks are irrelevant, that’s how much they’re missing. Even with a pitch count (I’m assuming), there is still a ceiling here for Gausman given the watered-down matchup.
Triston McKenzie
I’m interested once again here with McKenzie since he grabs the coveted Detroit matchup and he’s at home. In theory, this is a spot where he can get away with throwing the fastball over 60% of the time since the Tigers are 29th against it this year and they rank 24th in fly-ball rate, another big boost for McKenzie. He has a 22.9% K rate and only a 1.01 WHIP but I will always have a tough time swallowing a fly-ball rate of 51.4%. Detroit generally has more lefties in the lineup and that’s another check for McKenzie since he’s been nastier against lefty hitters. The wOBA is .249, the K rate jumps over 27%, and the WHIP drops below 0.90. It takes good spots for me to want to get after McKenzie but this is absolutely one of them.
Honorable Mention
The price for Johnny Cueto is a little high for my taste as he has a 4.08 xFIP compared to a 2.91 ERA and the K rate is under 20%. He’s been solid for the White Sox but for the salary, you need more than solid and a lot would have to go right for him.
On the other side of this game, Sonny Gray is finally at a salary that I can buy into but he has a 3.81 xFIP, the K rate has steadily dropped to 22.6%, and the right side of the plate has a higher wOBA. They also have the higher K rate so I can’t fault you for trying to get a righty pitcher against the White Sox but Gray has shown plenty of downside.
Punt Range
Kutter Crawford
He did just face this Rays team and score 30 points and while that is going to be hard to replicate, Crawford brings some intrigue at this salary. He has a 30.2% K rate against the left side of the plate but that’s not something that makes him a must-play because his FIP is over 6.00 against that side as well. He also walks over 14% of the hitters he’s facing in addition to being a major fly-ball pitcher, over 50% in total. I’m always willing to chase upside at this salary and the Rays offense is still not the most intimidating unit in the league right now. Crawford only has three starts under his belt this year and only 32 innings n the bigs in total, so he’s still very much a mystery box. When you can get a swinging-strike rate of 11.6% to go along with the other upside, I’m going to consider you.
Missed The Cut
Nestor Cortes – It wouldn’t hurt the Yanks if Cortes had a good start tonight after Severino left the game early but Cortes has been frustrating to get right lately. Since the start of June, his ERA is over 4.20, the wOBA is over .340, the FIP is over 5.20, and the K rate has dropped below 24%. It looks like teams are adjusting or have found something against Cortes and he hasn’t adjusted back quite yet.
Martin Perez – I’ve not pitched him very often this year and Seattle can be really good or really bad, so I suppose he could have a path to success. His xFIP is over a run higher than the ERA and he does ground ball teams to death at 52.4% but I never seem to catch him when he scores over 20 DK.
Carlos Carrasco – It might be a little unfair because his xFIP’s are similar regardless of venue but Carrasco on the road has been a disaster. His ERA is over 6.00 and the wOBA is over 3.70 with a 1.78 HR/9.
Stacks
Braves
Blue Jays
Astros
Rangers
Dodgers
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