Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/12
Tuesday does bring us another Coors slate but at least there are 12 other games to lean on for other options. We have another big-name ace to anchor to and I’m going to bet he’ll be popular but there are options in any range we want tonight. Let’s talk about the main ace pitcher and others in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/12 so we can find green screens!
Aces
Gerrit Cole
Of all the true aces in the league, I think Cole is the one that I always have the most reservations about because when he’s not spot on, he tends to get blitzed. He’s becoming prone to the home run ball again as the 1.45 HR/9 is the second-highest mark of his career (the xFIP is 2.94, in fairness) but the fastball can be a little vulnerable with seven homers allowed. That’s when hitters make contact because the whiff rate is over 32% on that pitch and the lowest in Cole’s arsenal is 29.1%. It doesn’t hurt that the Reds are 19th against the fastball and Cole has a 31.2% K rate and a 14.2% swinging-strike rate so it’s easy to see where the upside comes from. Cole is also still in a spot where the wOBA is higher when facing a righty but the BABIP is over .310 and the xFIP is lower than the left side, so that helps as well. His K rate does drop to 27.8% as opposed to the 35.4% rate he has against lefties so Cole is well in play, but I’m not sure he’s an absolute need in GPP.
Spencer Strider
For as much as I blast DK for their pricing (deservedly, I may add), they finally got one right in Strider. The guy has been a MONSTER with a 39.2% K rate, a 2.06 FIP, 2.24 xFIP, a 0.94 WHP, an 8.4% walk rate, and a 2.83 ERA…as a starter! Almost every number is better than how he pitched as a relief pitcher and that is wildly impressive. Neither side of the plate has a wOBA over .253 and the swinging-strike rate is 16.6%. That would be tied for the best mark in the league if he had the innings to qualify and speaks to how nasty his stuff is because he’s using his four-seam over 68% of the time. It has a 29.6% whiff rate and 67 of 102 strikeouts. I grant you the Mets don’t strike out, but neither do the Cardinals, Dodgers, or Nationals and Strider racked up 30 strikeouts in those three starts.
Dylan Cease
It will certainly not be the best spot he’ll ever get but when you have a pitcher with a 34.3% K rate on any slate under $10,000, you have to talk about it. Cease has a 2.96 xFIP, 2.81 FIP, and 2.45 ERA to go along with the massive K rate and he’s third in the league in the swinging-strike rate at 16.1%. Much like yesterday with Lynn, Cease is worse against lefties with a wOBA of .308 and the K rate is “only” 30.1% while the xFIP comes up to 3.47. The biggest issue that I have here is Cease is a little worse when facing a lefty because only 234 of his 638 sliders have come against lefties. That pitch has a 47% whiff rate, a .167 wOBA allowed, and 73 strikeouts. It’s far and away his best pitch and if he’s using it a lot less, that’s an issue. If the Guardians lineup comes out righty-heavy unexpectedly, I’d get more excited.
Honorable Mention
I get it’s a start against the Angels but $10,100 for Garcia on DK feels pretty high and unnecessary. The xFIP is 3.60 and the K rate is 25.7% so I’m not here to say he’s a bad play but I’m just not sure he’s going to pay off that salary. He’s scored over 23 DK points exactly once across the past 10 and may not have the same ceiling as Cole, Strider, and maybe even Cease.
Mid-Range
Josiah Gray
I pretty much always want to take a stab at Gray even though you never know what exactly you’ll get. We already know he got a boost because Julio Rodriguez will serve his suspension and the obvious issue here is his struggles against lefties. He’s gotten better at that as he’s got the wOBA under .400 (yes, .391 is a horrid mark overall but it’s been over .400 most of the season) and the righties are under .270. His K rate against both sides is over 24% and it’s almost 29% against the right side, which is why we’re still interested. His upside can be massive and Seattle is mostly mid-pack in our offensive categories. The slider and curve both have whiff rates over 35% and the wOBA’s are under .270 and those pitches have 84 of his 99 strikeouts. It is scary to see that Seattle is ninth against the fastball so understand that this is GPP only.
Mitch White
I don’t love him but the quality of pitching takes a nose dive pretty quickly. White has thrown 40 innings for the Dodgers this year and the xFIP is 3.96 with a 23.4% K rate, a hard-hit rate under 28%, and a 9.3% swinging-strike rate. He really has no major splits but his K rate does come up when he faces a righty to 26.8%. The slider is a big key to that with a .226 wOBA allowed and a 35.4% whiff rate on the year and the Cardinals are 24th against that pitch. St. Louis is not the easiest matchup ever but White is not a bad pitcher and the salary makes sense.
Honorable Mention
Corey Kluber might be about the most “boring” pitcher on any given slate but everything is solid. The xFIP is 3.85, the K rate is 21.4%, the wOBA’s against each side are under .305, and he has been a lot better at home. I doubt he gets much attention so I have no real issues with him but I can’t say he’s the player I’m running to put in the lineup immediately.
Punt Range
Adrian Sampson
Alright, it’s going to get really gross here because there is not much to be had. Sampson has only pitched 21.2 innings so far but they have been strong with a 3.35 xFIP, a ground ball rate of just under 43%, and a K rate of 22.4%. All of the sudden, the swinging-strike rate is 11% and he’s using the four-seam a lot more this year. That’s paid off with a 24.2% whiff rate and he’s held righties to a .226 wOBA, a 28.3% K rate, and a WHIP of 0.83. While I’m certainly a little leery to trust such a small sample, Baltimore is up to a 23.1% K rate as a team and 21st in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ when facing a righty. We’re going to have a ton of value on the hitting side of things so I believe this is a slate where we’re going to invest in pitching.
Missed The Cut
Kevin Gausman – Maybe I’m misreading the situation but I can’t get on board here. Gausman hasn’t pitched since the second of this month so he’s been down 10 days, a little bit of a worry to start. Next, he was supposed to be in line for a stat on Sunday but didn’t feel well enough to go. I’m not sure 48 hours is enough for me to feel better here about pitching Gausman and it’s not like he’s been great since the start of June either. The ERA was 3.96, the K rate went down to 23.3%, and the xFIP climbed to 3.58.
Chris Sale – He’s never been past four innings in any of his rehab starts and he walked five hitters in the last one. I’m not interested on this big of a slate and would rather take a wait-and-see approach.
Stacks
Padres (chalk again)
White Sox
Blue Jays
Giants
Dodgers
Astros
Yankees
Braves
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