Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/10
We’ve got another solid afternoon slate today with some good pitching options and offenses. Anything under 10 games is always a bit easier to wrap our heads around and we can be a bit more focused. Let’s talk about who we need to chase today to find our green screens in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/10!
Aces
Sandy Alcantara
Can he just pitch against someone other than the Mets at this point? This will be the third time he’s seen them in the last five starts, which doesn’t totally comfort me but as far as talent, Alcantara is the number one on this slate. Nobody has pitched as many innings as he had (123.1) and the next closest is Aaron Nola at 111.1. That helps mitigate the average K rate for an ace at 22.8%, as does the 56.5% ground ball rate and the 26.3% hard-hit rate. He’s impossible to score against with a 1.82 ERA and he’s a threat to go the whole game at any point with two so far. He’s been under six innings in just three games this year and he hasn’t been below seven innings since May 6th. That’s a weapon itself and the wOBA against each side of the plate is .245 or under. Not many pitchers on this slate have the safety and upside but in that Alcantara does.
Eric Lauer
I’ve been much more hesitant to play him lately since the K rate fell through the season and the xFIP exploded to as high as 4.86 in June. Pittsburgh can change that and it was encouraging to see him strike out nine in the last game. Lauer is using a fastball/slider combo for the majority of his arsenal and they are both under a .290 wOBA allowed with 75 of 89 strikeouts. The Bucco lineup is in the bottom 10 against both pitches and has been flirting with a 30% K rate over the last 30 days when facing a lefty pitcher. With Lauer sporting a higher K rate at home (26.4%) and a lower xFIP (3.29), he’s going to be awfully appealing today. There are a couple of hitters that have some pop in the Pirates lineup but they also may have to throw out some lefties and Lauer has a 31.3% against the left side of the plate. The salaries of both Aces do complicate matters but in a vacuum, they are both very strong plays.
Mid-Range
Shane Baz
Of course, we’re going after Baz as his first five starts this season have looked fairly strong. The K rate is just under 28% with a walk rate under 9% while the WHIP is 1.14 and the ground ball rate is 44.4%. I don’t love seeing a 38.1% hard-hit rate but the barrel rate suggests that might be noise due to the small sample size because it’s only 6.3%. Baz is generating a 13% swinging-strike rate with mainly his fastball/slider combo. Those pitches are 63% of what Baz throws and the slider is the star pitch. It has a 46.1% whiff rate (the curve is 47.8% but he throws that just 15.1%)and 19 of the 28 strikeouts for Baz. Seeing the Reds sitting 26th when facing one is highly encouraging and the splits are strong as well. Neither side is over .288 for the wOBA and they both whiff over 26.5% of the time. The FIP/xFIP is lower to righties, as is the walk rate so this lineup could break pretty well for him. We have to love the ground ball rate to that side as well at 55.3% so Baz is a full-go for me.
Micheal Kopech
We’ve been avoiding Kopech a lot lately and to be honest, I’m sort of ambivalent about him even today. I prefer Baz to be sure but any pitcher with any ability has to be considered when they draw the Tigers. We talk about it constantly so we don’t need to re-has every category and the biggest concern is Kopech himself. His xFIP is all the way up to 4.81 and that’s terrifying, as is his fly-ball rate of 52.1%. The swinging-strike rate is now under 10% and he needs to lean into something other than his fastball 64.2% of the time. It has allowed seven of his nine home runs, a .295 wOBA, and the main issue is the slider and curve aren’t that great either for whiff rate. It’s under 25% for both pitches and Kopech has been worse to the left side with a .338 wOBA, a 1.53 HR/9, and a 1.43 WHIP. With all the warts, he does have a K rate of 27.9% against the left side and Detroit should be lefty-heavy so I can’t take him off the board.
Taijuan Walker
The strikeouts can be difficult to predict from Walker but it’s possible for him to go seven or more, as evidenced in three of the last five games. Miami is seventh in K rate over the last 30 days when they face a righty and Walker is sitting at a .254 wOBA when facing a righty hitter. If the Marlins have the same lineup as yesterday, they’ll have eight righties in the lineup and even with a 17.5% K rate against that side, Walker still holds plenty of appeal. He’s using a splitter about 29% of the time and that has the most strikeouts at 32 with a 29.5% whiff rate. It’s not the most common pitch but the Fish are 27th against the splitter and that is only another bonus for Walker. The mid-range has plenty of choices today and could hold the key to pairing with one of the Aces.
Jose Quintana
He’s far from exciting but the Brewers offense somehow continues to be worse against lefties than we would think at 16th in ISO, 23rd in OBP, and then 22nd in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ to go along with a 23.3% K rate. Quintana has a ground ball rate over 43% and the xFIP is under 3.75 while he’s flashed solid games and upside all season long. Now, there are bad games mixed in as well so this isn’t a slam dunk play or anything. It’s just there is a clear path to success for Quintana as he’s held the hard-hit rate under 30% and the 11.7% swinging-strike rate is just about his career-high. That’s impressive at this point and all three of his main pitches have a whiff rate over 27% and the fastball/curve have allowed a wOBA under .290. He is a little worse on the road with a K rate under 18% and a 4.15 xFIP but the Brewers look like an enticing matchup on paper.
Punt Range
Nick Lodolo
It’s not the best strikeout matchup because the Rays are under 20% as a team for their K rate but Lodolo has a 30.3% rate through his 19.2 IP this year. He’s been a little unlucky as well with a 3.01 xFIP compared to a 4.19 ERA and the 21.4% HR/FB is awfully high. All of his pitches have a whiff rate of at least 25.8% with the curve doing the heavy lifting at 48.6%. Lodolo has done a great job of keeping the ball out of the air at 27.5% and his K rate is over 30% against the right side with a 3.01 xFIP. Tampa is under the league average in wOBA, wRC+, and ISO so based on what we have in front of us from Lodolo, he looks like he has a solid ceiling. The salary involved makes him a very appealing option with significant upside and he threw 89 pitches in his first game back.
Stacks
Braves
White Sox
Phillies
Guardians
Cardinals
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