Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/8
Monday only has seven games to offer us and this might be among the worst pitching slates on the season. It says a lot that there is only one pitcher out of the 14 that is over $9,000 on DK and only four are over $8,000. That’s going to make life difficult but let’s see what we can find in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/8!
Ace
Chris Bassitt
I suspect that Bassitt will be very, very popular tonight as he is the lone “ace” by the salary requirements and he’s at home against the Reds. The matchup is likely to work in his favor because the Reds should play four lefties at most and the quality of those lefties is questionable. Bassitt has had his way with the right side of the plate with a .252 wOBA, a 23.6% K rate, a 0.97 WHP, and a 3.21 xFIP. While his sinker is the most used pitch, the slider and four-seam are second and third against the right side and those two pitches have 66 strikeouts on the season while the slider has a 32.9% whiff rate to lead the pack for Bassitt. He’s also been better at home with a 3.06 ERA compared to 4.24 on the road and his K rate jumps up to almost 27%. With the Reds being in the bottom 10 in OPS, OBP, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ to go along with a 24% K rate, Bassitt might be so popular that we can consider a fade in GPP but I’m betting we need him for cash.
Mid-Range
Blake Snell
At least on DK, I’d be pretty surprised if Bassitt and Snell aren’t the runaway chalk pair because Snell is still under $9,000 despite destroying five of his past six starts. He had been unlucky pretty much the whole season but things started to even out once the calendar flipped to July. Since then, the ERA has been under 2.70, the wOBA is under .280, the K rate is over 37%, and the FIP/xFIP combo dipped under 3.00. The walk rate is still high but you almost don’t care with the rest of his profile right now. The matchup isn’t easy by the seasonal metrics since the Giants are in the top 10 in our categories when facing a lefty but that didn’t matter last time for SnellZilla. He whiffed 11 hitters through six innings and allowed just one run and his slider and curve are evil this year. They both have a whiff rate over 42.5%, wOBA’s under .175, and 56 strikeouts. The four-seam does have a .414 wOBA which is not ideal, but he’s been much better with it lately.
Zac Gallen
The Bucs are heading West in the middle of a 10-game road trip and even though Spenser Watkins fell apart yesterday, Gallen is of a higher quality. He has a 23.3% K rate and a ground ball rate of 40% on the nose to go along with a 0.89 HR/9 to this juncture. I don’t love the fact that he’s still sitting at a 9.2% swinging-strike rate and the fastball is being used an awful lot at 48.1%. While it does have 50 strikeouts, it does have a .295 wOBA but the good news here is the Pittsburgh offense ranks 28th against the fastball. It also makes sense for Gallen as far as the splits go since the left side struggles more with him with a .248 wOBA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 3.57 xFIP. It feels like Pittsburgh has been a thorn n pitcher’s sides lately but even over the last 14 days, they are in the bottom five of wRC+, wOBA, ISO, OPS, and OBP with a K rate just a bit under 24%.
Honorable Mention
I truthfully hate playing Jameson Taillon and this is the second straight Mariners start. That is a common theme on this slate but for Taillon, the K rate is 20.8% with a 3.81 xFIP but his swinging-strike rate is under 10%. He’s been worse on the road with an ERA over 4.45 and the K rate is under 18%, so there’s not a large path to success here. Both sides of the plate have a wOBA of at least .298 and the left side gets to him more, so I would much prefer Gallen.
Punt Range
Keegan Thompson
Overall, the profile for Thompson is not that special and it’s scary to see that the xFIP of 4.30 is basically a run higher than his 3.48 ERA. He does have a K rate of 21.2% and the fly-ball rate is dead even with the ground ball rate at 40.1%. That has helped him succeed in Wrigley Field so far this year because through 57.2 IP, he has a 2.50 ERA, a .280 wOBA (righties and lefties are dead even), and a 3.77 xFIP, a WHIP of just 1.13, and the K rate jumps to almost 25%. His cutter, curve, and change all have a whiff rate of at least 24% but the four-seam still has the most strikeouts at 41%. Against a lineup that should struggle to put up a ton of production, this makes sense on this style of slate.
Honorable Mention
There’s no real way to possibly trust Jose Suarez with a 4.49 xFIP and a 40% fly-ball rate but he does at least have a 21.5% K rate and he does face the A’s. However, he just faced this team and I’m skeptical if he can navigate the lineup again but they do only have one-hitter with a wOBA over .350 against lefties this year. I would prefer him in 20-max or more with the instability baked in.
Missed The Cut
Logan Gilbert – He does get them at home but a second straight start seeing the Yankees is not a great idea, not to mention the first one went extremely poorly.
Jordan Lyles – In theory, this is not a bad play by the splits. Lyles is much better at home as far as the ERA goes at 2.68 but his K rate goes down to 17.2% and the xFIP is actually higher at home (4.71) than it is on the road (4.25). The right side has been way worse with a .265 wOBA and a 2.23 FIP but even then, the xFIP is still 4.23 and these are pretty good righties.
Yusei Kikuchi – He could be popular but I’m out on him if he’s chalky as he has a 5.50 FIP, a 4.36 xFIP, a walk rate of 13%, and he likely can’t go past 85 pitches. Now, if he’s not popular maybe he’s worth a shot because Baltimore does have a 25.4% K rate and Kikuchi is at 25% himself. Still, it’s beyond impossible to have any faith in him and he has gotten smacked by righties with a .380 wOBA, a 2.03 HR/9, and a 1.66 WHIP.
Stacks
Mets
Cubs
Padres
Yankees
A’s (for savings)
Orioles
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