Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/5
It’s Friday so that means we have a ton of teams in action tonight and 26 pitchers on the mound. We have some solid choice at every level tonight even if the punt level isn’t the greatest, but these are the kinds of slates we like. It’s not necessary to get boxed into one or two plays in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/5 so let’s get to work!
Aces
Dylan Cease
Other than facing a little bit more lefties than we’d prefer, this is a fantastic spot for Cease as the Rangers strike out at the eighth-highest rate against righties at 23.5%. Cease will always have one of the highest ceiling outcomes potentially on every slate he pitches on with a K rate of 33.3% and he’s even go the walk rate under 11%. When he’s not getting a strikeout, the fly-ball rate is under 39% and his swinging-strike rate is 15.9%, among the best in the league. The slider is just an awesome pitch with a 47.2% whiff rate, a .154 wOBA allowed, and 94 strikeouts despite it being thrown 42% of the time. Lefties do have a .303 wOBA against him and the K rate drops under 29% but at the same time, his BABIP is .356 and should come down during the second half. With the K rate from Texas, Cease can pay off this salary since they are 24th against the slider this season.
Honorable Mention
I’m very torn on Framber Valdez. On the one hand, the Guardians are in the bottom five in OPS, ISO, wOBA, wRC+, and OBP when they face a lefty pitcher. That s fantastic for Valdez, as is the eighth-highest ground ball rate from the offense. Valdez generates a ground ball rate of 66.9% and a K rate of 22.3%, but everything has to go right for him to pay off this salary. Perhaps it does but a K rate barely over 22% has me very nervous at $9,900.
I know there are a lot of pitchers in the Ace tier, but I’m not excited for any other than Cease. The Dodgers game could turn into a bit of a shootout with the offenses involved (surely not pitching Sean Manaea against the Dodgers) and I don’t love Taijuan Walker against the Atlanta offense either.
Mid-Range
Robbie Ray
I would expect Ray to be pretty popular despite coming off two starts where he combined for about -10 DK points. I’m not breaking new ground here but the Angels have a much worse lineup than the Astros, so this is a nice bounce-back spot. Los Angeles is 26th or worse in wOBA, ISO, OPS, wRC+, and OBP to go along with a 24.3% K rate, and even though that K rate has improved over the past 30 days a little bit, Ray has elite strikeout ability. He’s been much better at home with a 28.7% K rate, has a 3.13 xFIP, a WHIP of 0.96, and an ERA of 2.96. His slider has a 40.4% whiff rate to go along with a 27% whiff rate on the fastball, and those two pitches are virtually 80% of his arsenal. The Angels rank 29th against the fastball and 18th against the slider so this spot matches up just far too well for Ray.
Josiah Gray
I always get tempted when Gray is at this salary with a path to success and he does have it here. If Philly plays the same lineup as last night, they’ll only have four lefties in it and that includes Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott, two below-average hitters. Overall, Gray has a 4.20 xFIP and a 50.2% fly-ball rate so, in Philly, there is no safety with him. Those fly-balls can turn into home runs n a frighteningly quick fashion but he’s been so good against the right side that I think he could thrive here. Heck, he got the Phillies for 11 strikeouts at the start of July and only gave up two runs in doing so on his way to 32 DK points. Righties have a 0.97 WHIP, a 3.35 xFIP, and a 28.9% K rate while the left side has a 5.39 xFIP and a .404 wOBA. Philly is 13th against the fastball this year and that has been the worst pitch for Gray so if he can get by the lefties, he could post a big number.
Corey Kluber
Is the pitcher going against the Tigers? If the answer is yes, odds are we’re going to have some level of interest. Kluber has a 3.84 xFIP and a 21.6% K rate, which is plenty. You don’t think of him as having overpowering stuff but his 11.2% swinging-strike rate really isn’t that bad and the curve gets the highest whiff rate among his three main pitches at 26.6%. It has the most strikeouts at 43 and the Tigers are dead last when facing the curve this season. I do have some fears that lefties have a .317 wOBA against Kluber but the BABIP is .319 and the FIP is 3.27 to go along with a 21% K rate. That’s enough for this salary and for the opponent who still ranks 30th in ISO, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+.
Honorable Mention
The K rate jumped back up to 24.3% in July for Eric Lauer but he still had a 4.53 xFIP and a wOBA of almost .300. The Reds did trade some of their righty hitters so perhaps he has an easier path to success, but he’s just a lot harder to get right lately. His being at home does help so perhaps I’ll get more of him and the 2.85 ERA in Milwaukee once the Reds lineup hits.
Punt Range
Patrick Sandoval
He grabs a matchup against the Mariners team that whiffs 23.4% of the time when they face a lefty (10th highest in baseball) and they’re missing Julio Rodriguez. They’re also all over the board in the categories so they can smash a lefty but they can struggle, and it depends on the day. With Sandoval, he has a 3.61 ERA and 3.77 xFIP but also brings a .344 BABIP to the party, which is pretty high. The K rate is 24.2% while the ground ball rate is 44.9% and the hard-hit rate is under 30%. His slider/change/fastball trio are all right around 25% and the slider/changeup both have a whiff rate over 36% and wOBA’s under .260. They have also racked up 89 of 97 strikeouts but the fastball has been the largest issue with a whopping .475 wOBA allowed. Seattle is 11th overall against the fastball but Rodriguez out of the lineup knocks them down to around average, while they are 22nd when facing a slider and 24th when facing a changeup. Even against righties, Sandoval has a 23.7% K rate (it’s up to 26.2% against lefties) and both sides have a 3.35 FIP or lower. With the potential K upside at this salary, I’m interested in GPP settings.
Mitch Keller
Even with some uneven metrics coming out of the last start against Philly, Keller enjoyed a great month of July over 31 innings. He had a 2.61 ERA, a 22.6% K rate, and a 3.24 xFIP with a 1.16 WHIP. That would certainly play at this salary and he’s been using the slider more. It was over 21% the entire month until the last start when it was only 19.8% but he didn’t have the best control. He asked three hitters but ground his way through six innings and his slider still had a plus rating. It has also been his best pitch with a 28.3% whiff rate and a .281 wOBA allowed so he really needs it to work to have a strong game. Baltimore is eighth against that pitch but they also lessened their lineup at the deadline. I’m not 100% sold on Keller by any stretch, but I always prefer playing him at this salary as opposed to $8,000 like the last start. If nothing else, Baltimore has a 22.5% K rate and is no higher than 16th in anything but ISO against righties.
Dean Kremer
We could quietly get a bit of a pitcher’s duel here (don’t get me wrong, the complete opposite is also true) and Kremer is interesting. The Pirates were very feisty against the Brewers during the week and Kremer still has a 4.69 xFIP compared to the 3.86 ERA, which is scary. I will say he is at his best when facing lefties with a 24.8% K rate, a 3.76 xFIP, and a .313 wOBA. None of his pitches stand out particularly although his main three all have a whiff rate over 23% and his four-seam is under a .300 wOBA allowed. That’s the main pitch when facing a lefty and his K rate has come out more at home this season. Baltimore can help harbor his fly-ball tendencies at 45.9% so he’s a potentially sub-5% pitcher on this slate that can flirt with 18-20 DK points.
Missed The Cut
Nestor Cortes – It seems like this is a salary that is borne out of his 27 DK points against the Orioles, and not the 17 he just scored when he faced Kansas City. With a K rate under 22.5% since the month of June started, I can’t justify this salary against the team that is top-three in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and OBP with a K rate under 20%.
Tyler Mahle – Sonny Gray had a solid game last night but Mahle has not handled righties well with a .331 wOBA, a 1.37 HR/9, and a 3.88 xFIP. I’m not running to stack the Jays, but pitching Mahle seems like a tough sell.
Stacks
Astros
Mets
Yankees
Brewers
D-Backs/Rockies Game Stack
Royals
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