Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/4
We have a decent-sized eight-game slate tonight but what is not decent is the pitching selection. We do have an ace up top but past that, it’s not exactly a banner day on the mound. There are some matchups we can hopefully exploit and some that I’m not very excited about despite the talent. Let’s get to work and try to figure this out in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/4 and find green!
Note – The Cards were rained out last night so we might get Miles Mikolas as an option, but we’ll have to be sure before we take a look.
Aces
Justin Verlander
I’m assuming we can just lock him into cash games right now even though Cleveland doesn’t strike out much at all (dead last against righties at just 17.7%). I could go on and on that, he doesn’t have the upside to justify the salary but he has the best floor/ceiling combo on this slate. Even with a 3.47 xFIP and a 1.81 ERA, the HR/9 is still under 0.90 and the K rate is enough at 25.6% due in large part to his slider. That has a 35.8% whiff rate and 61 strikeouts on the season to go along with a .212 wOBA allowed and the Guardians ranking fifth against that pitch doesn’t worry me that badly. Verlander has been fantastic against the left side of the plate with a .209 wOBA, a 27.4% K rate, a 0.78 WHIP, and a 2.72 FIP. It’s all just too much to ignore, especially on this slate.
Alek Manoah
I don’t love the salary here either but Manoah is in line to start even after taking a line drive to his pitching elbow in the last start. That brings me some comfort that it wasn’t any soreness or anything to cause long-term issues, but this is still not an easy spot for Manoah. The Twins are in the top seven in every offensive category and then you have to weigh the splits for Manoah as well. He’s still allowing a .310 wOBA against the left side and his K rate dips under 17% to go along with a 4.58 xFIP. Now, he’s whiffing righties at a 29% clip so there is still 20 points or more as a possibility but it’s just not the best salary. Minnesota could play four or five lefties and Manoah could have a low-end start here. He’s not my favorite but let’s see who Minnesota plays.
Honorable Mention
He did drop 27 DK points on the Atlanta offense earlier this year, so perhaps I’m discounting Carlos Carrasco a bit. At the same time, he is worse against the right side so that’s not great but he is also better at home with a 3.30 ERA and a 3.12 wOBA overall. The K rate actually dips under 23% and the xFIP is slightly higher at 3.61. I’d feel better if he was cheaper and Carrasco also carries a 1.41 WHIP against the right side which could hurt against Atlanta.
Mid-Range
Nick Pivetta
He’s been struggling pretty badly but the Royals offense is now missing Whit Merrifield and Andrew Benintendi so they have taken a step back. Pivetta was really never as good as it looked on the surface toward the start of the season but the pendulum has swung the other way with his 4.47 ERA being above his 4.25 xFIP. The K rate is solid for this salary at 22.6% and Kansas City is a strong park to have fly-ball tendencies (43% for Pivetta) since they are 29th in park factor for home runs. The right side of the plate has a 24.4% K rate and a 3.50 FIP while the left side does have a 5.22 FIP and a .342 wOBA. We talked about this yesterday that the lefties for KC aren’t very good and only MJ Melendez is over a .300 wOBA. That helps Pivetta (hopefully) as it did for Lynn, who was fantastic. Pivetta’s curve has 35 strikeouts and is the main pitch after the fastball and the Royals are 25th against that pitch and 18th against the fastball. On paper, this is not a bad spot to try and get a solid outing from Pivetta.
Noah Syndergaard
The seasonal stats for the Washington Nationals are basically out the window at this point since Juan Soto and Josh Bell are Padres. The Nationals may not strike out a ton still but they certainly will strike out more than they did and they will be far less dangerous. Considering they are no higher than 18th in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ against righty pitching, that would be a very bad sign for them. Syndergaard is not the best pitcher in the league but he’s been perfectly fine with a 3.83 ERA, a 4.27 xFIP, and an 18.9% K rate. It’s projecting a bit but in the first two games the Nationals lost those players, they have generated just one run against starting pitching. Granted, it was Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt but even still, Syndergaard is at a reasonable salary.
Punt Range
Jeffrey Springs
This is a solid spot for Springs and we have needed to be picky about where to pitch him. He’s very strong against the right side of the plate as a lefty, which is important and he has a 1.08 WHIP, a 27.4% K rate, a 3.22 xFIP, and a .287 wOBA. The Tigers should play mostly righties tonight and they are average (and perhaps a little above) against lefties. Detroit is 16th in wOBA and wRC+, and they whiff under 22%, so this is not a slam dunk spot. However, Springs is so cheap that we have to consider him here. Springs is allowing a 41.5% fly-ball rate and he’s generating a 13.3% swinging-strike rate, very impressive. His change has a whiff rate over 37% with 38 strikeouts to go along with his fastball and the Tigers are in the bottom five against each pitch.
Missed The Cut
Kyle Wright – I’m not particularly excited to target the Mets lineup with anyone, let alone when they are $9,900. Wright continues to have some issues with posting big games as far as strikeouts go with five, eight, four, five, and two in his past five starts. He’s been under 21 DK points in all of those starts except for the eight strikeout game, and I’ll take my chances he doesn’t do that in New York.
Johnny Cueto – I much prefer using righties against Texas but the salary is so high for Cueto and his K rate s tough to justify. He’s only whiffed two hitters across the past 14 innings and that has brought him down to under 17%. Between that and his 2.86 ERA and 4.32 xFIP, it’s tough to back Cueto at the salary. To make matters worse, lefties have a K rate under 14% and the xFIP and FIP are both over 4.80.
Stacks
Phillies
Astros
White Sox
Rays
Blue Jays
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