Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/11
With the Field of Dreams game in the evening, we only have six games during the day and that’s bout it for MLB action. That’s a marquee game so it will have the spotlight but we have some pretty strong pitching options at the top of the grid tonight. Let’s figure out who we’re chasing in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/11 and who’s leading the charge to green screens!
Aces
Dylan Cease
The K rate has been down in the past three games with just 16 through 18 innings pitched, and yet Cease has managed to exceed 20 DK points in all three games. I’m not inclined to think this is anything but a bump in the road for the strikeout upside of Cease since he’s still at 32.8% for the season and he still has a 1.98 ERA and 2.70 FIP. The xFIP points to some regression to be sure at 3.13 and that’s in part due to an 8% HR/FB rate, and the career number for Cease is 13.1%. The Royals are only average against the slider and that’s likely to be an issue since Cease uses his slide about 42% of the time and it has a 46.8% whiff rate and 97 strikeouts. The nice thing with Cease is there are no major splits to get worried about as the home/road splits are about the same and lefties only have a .289 wOBA. Both sides whiff at least 28.4% of the time and he’s the clear number one option on paper.
Merrill Kelly
Even in a down start last time against the Rockies, Kelly still scored 16 DK points and would have hit 20 had the team been able to win and he only allowed two runs over seven innings on seven hits. Overall, he worries me as the xFIP is 3.93 and the ERA is 2.86 and that’s a big gap for someone that only sports a 20.6% K rate on the year. He doesn’t use a pitch 30% of the time on the year and the four-seam/change mix are the only two pitches that have at least 30 strikeouts. Like Cease, he doesn’t have any significant splits to be concerned about but the 3.32 xFIP at home is comforting compared to 4.72 on the road and the K rate is over 23%. With the Pirates sitting third in K rate against righties at 25%, I believe Kelly is well in play and he can exploit the Pirates’ ranking 27th or lower in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and OBP.
Honorable Mention
I really dislike when Framber Valdez is this expensive because the K rate has fallen under 22% and the Rangers are better equipped to take on a lefty. They are in the top 10 in wOBA, wRC+, and OPS, and they trail only the Yankees in ISO. Now, Valdez does generate a ton of ground balls at 67.4% so he has that going for him, but it’s tough to see him match the strikeout upside that Cease has. He and Kelly are similar in that vein, but Kelly has a much better matchup.
Mid-Range
Edward Cabrera
This is a wild play because the salary is not cheap and Carbera only has 20.2 innings this season. The ERA looks great at 2.61 but the xFIP is 4.29, not the best sign. We’re chasing him because of the K rate which is almost 27%, the ground ball rate is 50%, and the hard-hit rate is only 27.1%. The pure stuff is filthy with a 14.8% swinging-strike rate and his top four pitches all have a whiff rate over 33%. In his four starts, he’s hit at least 20 in three of them and the one he got waxed was against the Astros. Not only is that understandable, but he also dealt with an injury after that stat and this past game against the Cubs was the first start back in the majors. He generated 25.5 DK on just 78 pitches so he should close in on 90 today. Last night, Philly played four lefties and that would help with a .170 wOBA allowed by Cabrera and it’s the righties that worry us. His walk rate is astronomical at 19.1% so it shows he doesn’t always know where the stuff is going, but he has shown serious strikeout ability.
Kyle Gibson
I’ve not been a large Gibson fan through the season but he’s going to be an option on this slate against this opponent. Gibson is basically a copy of Syndergaard from last night with a 4.20 xFIP, a 4.36 ERA, and an 18.4% K rate so there’s nothing special. He does at least get a 46.5% ground ball rate but he’s also been worse against the right side and at home, the wOBA is .332 with a 5.13 FIP and a 1.87 HR/9, the highest of his splits. The Marlins don’t have quality righties, but they did throw out six righties last night and that would be a concern. His slider has the highest whiff rate of his arsenal at 37.3% and it has a .253 wOBA, but his sinker is allowing a .349 wOBA and those are the main two pitches against the right side. I’m nervous about this and he may be chalk on top of it. He’s been wildly up and down lately with 25, 17, -8, 22, 24, -5, -5, 12, 23, and 15 in the past 10 so there is an element of playing roulette with Gibson.
Everyone Else
On most slates, I would look too long at JT Brubaker because he has struggled since the start of July with an ERA over 5.00 and a wOBA allowed over .380. That isn’t exactly backed up by the xFIP of under 3.45 and he has at least been striking hitters out over 24% of the time so perhaps he has a path here. In fairness, the BABIP is crazy high at nearly .370 so that has to equalize. The other large fear is he’s been worse against lefties with a .352 wOBA and 4.22 xFIP but his K rate rises as well. You can build a case where he strikes out the lefty-have Diamondbacks enough to be worth playing, but it could go very south as well.
I almost can’t believe I’m typing this, but Zack Greinke is in play, in theory. We’ve gone after the White Sox with righties this season and when I say there’s nothing special about the profile for Greinke, I mean exactly that. The xFIP is 4.60 and the K rate is 13.1%, which is possibly about the lowest we’ve considered this season. He’s still not allowing a hard-hit rate over 27.7% and the key here is you have to hope that the home splits keep up. In 48.1 innings, Greinke has a 2.23 ERA, a .259 wOBA, a 0.19 HR/9 (pitching in Kansas City has advantages), and a 3.03 FIP. Even the WHIP is under 1.10 and Chicago is 29th in ISO, 23rd in OPS, OBP, and just 21st in wRC+. If you want the big bats, you can punt with Greinke and cross your fingers.
Stacks
Astros (Ragans came out of the first start with a 6.10 xFIP)
Rockies/Cardinals
Guardians/Tigers
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