Gary Gustafson 
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Monday, July 27
Happy Monday MLB DFS fans as we get our first full week of MLB action after opening weekend! Tonight, we get a solid slate on DraftKings with 9 games to sort through for our MLB DFS picks with a start time of 6:40 PM EST.
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitcher Breakdown:
UPDATED – NYY/PHI and MIA/BAL are PPD
As you open up Monday’s MLB DFS slate on DraftKings you will notice that the pitching is, well, underwhelming as we are through the first run of aces and now on to to the slates where we will have to dig a little harder to find our two SP’s to roster.
Mike Foltynewicz ($10.3K) is the highest priced arm on the slate and the only arm over $10K with a road match-up against the Tamp Bay Rays. I am a big believer that in DFS, pricing drives decision making, and Foltynewicz is the prime example of that here on Monday.
What if I told you, you could pay over $10K for a road underdog (+135), against a team with a 4.7 IRT who last season had an ERA/SIERA over 4.5 with a K rate of 21% and swinging strike rate of just 10.5% – pumped right?
Now Foltynewicz can be utilized under the right circumstances, specifically against right-handed heavy teams where his K rate of 24% can be utilized but this Rays projected line-up has six left-handed hitters in it which plays more to Folty’s floor with just an 18% K rate last season.
Even if you wanted to argue “safety” here, I am not even sure you can do that as the Braves have talked about limiting their arms the first time through the rotation and the first three games against the Mets we saw every bit of that as Soroka (69 pitches), Fried (67) and Newcomb (82) all saw their pitch counts managed the first time on the bump.
The last tune-up for Folty saw him throw 69 total pitches, so I think expecting him in the same range as the other Braves starters is a realistic outcome.
Now, the pricing being so aggressive on Foltynewicz could make him a really interesting low-owned GPP play but the lack of K upside, against a lefty-heavy line-up all sitting around a managed pitch count makes this a spot for GPP’s only. If he is going to be ignored tonight, then I think paying up for him is an interesting contrarian strategy but if he is going to get any sort of ownership, then it makes sense to let others take the risk.
Josh James ($8.6K) is making the transition from the bullpen to a full-time starting gig with the Houston Astros and with a home start against the Mariners, there is some serious K upside awaiting us.
James’ metrics are going to be heavily skewed as a result of his bullpen role but it is hard to overlook a guy with a 37% K rate and 16% swinging-strike rate. There is no doubt that James has the K ability as his last full season at AAA as a starter he flashed a similarly impressive 35.2% K rate so there is massive upside for him at this price tag.
The risk with James really sits with his inflated walk rate which sat at 13% last season and over 10% in his last season at AAA as a starter. The walk concerns overlaid with a pitcher still working up a full pitch count (64 pitches his last exhibition start), could lead to a shorter outing especially on the heels of the Astros losing their ace Justin Verlander for a significant amount of time yesterday.
James will get Gabe Morales behind the plate tonight, an umpire who is relatively neutral for walks but calls 9% more K’s than the league average so is James is throwing strikes and getting swings and misses, he could get the most of his pitch count tonight.
On a slate without any real must have’s offensively, James offers the tantalizing K upside that makes him a worth-while mid-range play but I could also see the ownership getting out of hand for James as the “shiny new toy” with the advanced metrics that everyone flocks to because the pitching is otherwise kind of mediocre.
Adrian Houser ($8.3K) represents a nice pivot off James in the same range as he gives you a solid 25% K rate in a strong run prevention spot against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Houser is a ground ball inducing machine, with a 53.4% GB rate last season that ranked among the top 10 of SP’s with at least 100 innings of work.
Now ground balls are not exactly sexy for DFS purposes especially when the Pirates as an opponent already cap upside with their 19% K rate against RHP but there is something to say about the stability and safety Houser can offer you on this slate where we frankly are dying to find two viable options.
Kendall Graveman ($4.9K) sits on the opposite end of the spectrum to Folty, as a player we are considering based off his bargain price alone. Graveman will be making his first start in two years after missing 2019 with Tommy John surgery and gets the unenviable task of facing the Houston Astros.
Graveman, much like Houser, has been a ground ball machine over his career with a 50% plus GB rate as a result of his sinker and early reports are he has added a four-seamer now to his arsenal sitting in the upper 90’s during exhibition games. The ability to challenge hitters up in the zone and then come back with his sinker to drive ground ball outs, is an intriguing combination that I think is a viable route on this pitching scarce slate that could give you added leverage if the Astros become the chalky stack with a slate high IRT.
So where does this all leave us?
From a GPP perspective, unless the ownership gets totally out of hand, it is hard not to focus on Josh James at this price point as one of your starting pitchers on a two-pitch site like DraftKings.
After that – I think you can mix and match any of Houser and Graveman, in an effort to load up on the bats here tonight. If you find yourself with salary to spend, I think “risking” it with Folty could be a GPP differentiator as we wait to see ownership unfold during the day.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks:
If you are new to Picks and Pivots and haven’t read me before I got to Win Daily, let me fill you in on a secret.
I have a nemesis.
Yep, a full-blown nemesis.
In the 5+ years I have been writing this column there is one starting pitcher that has teased and tantalized me – to the point where my wife got me a bobblehead of him that sits proudly on my desk at home.
Ladies and Gentlemen – welcome to the first installment of Brian Tulloch versus Jon Lester – 2020!
Lester is the definition of a crafty old veteran, a pitcher with a low K rate, a single-digit swinging-strike rate, and the ability to get out of jams. Over the last two seasons, his 76% left on base rate ranks 13th among all active starting pitchers but when you look at the rest of the list – it is littered with high K arms like Verlander, deGrom, Flaherty, Cole, Scherzer and so on.
Meanwhile here is old Jonny boy, dinking and dunking his way out of jams all managing to spit in the face of advanced stats that say his ERA should be a half-run higher than it has been.
I stack against Lester, a lot, waiting for the regression to hit, and today with a start in Great American Ballpark, I am going right back to the well.
The Reds may be a bit banged up but this line-up tonight has some serious upside, as they have four hitters in the lineup from the right side with .240+ ISO marks against LHP since 2018 including Eugenio Suarez, Nick Castellanos, Aristedes Aquino and Phillip Ervin.
Lester last season relied heavily on his cutter to RHB, jumping from 22% usage in 2018 to 35% usage in 2019, serving as his primary pitch to RHB. That pitch conversely was hit with though with a .225 ISO and 40% hard contact rate which shows you the damage good right-handed hitting teams can do against it. Of all the right-handed hitters – Castellanos absolutely destroys this pitch type, with an absurd 58% HC rate and .333 ISO mark.
It will be hot and humid in Ohio tonight with the threat of severe storms which would be fitting in 2020 fashion to ruin my Lester Day but with the wind blowing out and humid temperatures, this could be a launching pad with GPP winning upside and you know – I am all in!
Finding that secondary stack will be the key here tonight. With the Yankees/Phillies now off the slate, I can see the Astros being the defacto high dollar stack tonight that folks pay up for and so pairing them with James and the Reds who I expect will have some ownership), makes it tough to differentiate your build.
One team that may get overlooked here tonight is the Detroit Tigers as they face off with LHP Mike Montgomery. Montgomery last season gave up massive upside to hitters from both sides of the plate with a .210 ISO to RHB and .250 to LHB all with 44% HC and a single-digit swinging strike rate. So what that means is you have a pitcher who doesn’t miss bats, pitches to contact and gives up hard contact when he does.
The Tigers make for a nice secondary stack with the Reds because you can use guys like CJ Cron, Jonathan Schoop and Niko Goodrum to fill in around the positions of need in a Cincy stack and best part is – they are super cheap!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap Up
This is a GREAT GPP slate in my opinion as we do not have the obvious arms to target and it is going to require you to dig a bit deeper on this slate. With hot and humid temperatures across essentially every park, I think we could see some offenses put up massive numbers and through the first four slates of the year it hs mostly been about the big offensive stacks that have driven high GPP scores.
Going into the day now with all the COVID news breaking, I am starting my builds with James and a Reds stack and from there we need to be ready to pivot. If Folty ends up being ignored, then you can roll him out with a cheap Tigers stack with salary to spare.
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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