Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers
If you follow Picks and Pivots every day, you will notice that I spend far more time on slate strategy and context when outlining my plays as I think slate by slate the player pool dictates how you approach builds. Yesterday, I felt the pay up options did not have the must-have ceiling and was comfortable taking risks with cheaper upside arms like our dude Sixto Sanchez who once again put up a 25+ DK point performance with 6 K’s in an 8-0 win against the Braves.
Today, what stands out to me is that we have three elite top-end arms in great individual spots and I think the opportunity cost of fading these three is far too high to start anywhere else.
Yu Darvish, Trevor Bauer and Clayton Kershaw are all over $10K today and I think that the elite ceiling of these arms combined with the lack of great PP/$ value at SP – leads me down the path of going double aces here on Wednesday.
Darvish and Bauer are essentially a coin flip – both with 30% plus K rates, 13% or higher swinging strike rates and facing lineups with around a 25% K rate this season against RHP. Overlay that with 10-15 MPH winds blowing in at Wrigley and you can see how decision #1 starts with these two.
The K metrics for both pitchers are worth the price and while I could argue just locking in both – I think the presence of Kershaw on this slate leads me down a path of taking just one arm from this game. Both arms have shown you 30+ point ceiling, combining for 7 such starts of that output in 2020 and it becomes a flip of the coin based on roster needs/salary.
Kershaw meanwhile keeps on trucking with a 31% K rate and 13% SS rate of his own and gets to take on an Arizona team he just faced, striking out 8 on his way to 31 DK points. In fact Kershaw has faced Arizona twice this season and put up 27 and 31 DK points with 14 K’s combined in those two starts with 0 ER allowed.
It may seem “lazy” to just list the top three arms – but that is where I think the context is important. You have three arms today with 30+ point paths and I think the opportunity cost of trying to pay down is simply too great – so rather than punt and pray, take the clear path with two aces and a 50-60 point foundation and then spend your time finding the bats to make it all work!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks
The Dodgers are the clear best stack on the slate in Arizona with the roof open and a near 6 IRT but the double ace approach means we have to fade that stack today and plant our flag elsewhere.
The LA Angels get a nice offensive ballpark boost heading to Texas and with a 5+ IRT all their own, they give us an interesting stacking option that price wise on DK – gives you a high/low path that works alongside two aces.
Any and all stacking of the Angels starts with the big 3 – Trout/Rendon/Ohtani – and again, you may be sitting here saying – DUH, I know to play the three highest-priced arms and the three high priced All-Stars but there is a salary cap Brian!
I know, I know. Here is where this stack gets interesting though – you can mix them in with cheaper plays like Matt Thaiss ($2.1K) and Justin Upton ($2.6K) which help to offset the high cost of the other Angels bats AND gives you a tidy little 2-6 stack of hitters all with .200+ ISO marks against RHP since the start of last season.
Now this stack is going to leave you with minimal flexibility to fill out the rest of your builds but there is a path here with a variety of punts that also offer you some considerable correlation.
We talked about this in Discord yesterday so this is a great example of how to utilize it – everyone sets out to stack in MLB DFS and it usually starts at the top of the line-up – but stacking the bottom of the order is a great way in GPP’s not only to get low owned stacks but also offer salary relief.
So head to Houston with me for a second – the 7-9 stack of Aldeyms Diaz, Martin Maldonado and Jack Mayfied – I know exactly where you thought you would start today right?
Now the pricing is what draws your initial attention with Diaz and Mayfield at just $2K a piece, but you dig deeper and this is a trio that actually has .180+ ISO marks against LHP and dig even deeper and you see some interesting pitch type data against Jesus Luzardo.
Luzardo relies heavily on his sinker to RHB, throwing it over 31% of the time, and Diaz and Mayfield have .300 and .400 ISO marks respectively against that pitch type with 52% and 75% hard contact rates.
All of a sudden you see this little 2B/SS punt mini stack is more than just a “cheap guys who start” kind of play. The fact you can check all the boxes – correlation in their lineup positions, the R/L split and the pitch type data – makes this a position where if your punts can deliver, you are off and running with the lineup you have built.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
To me this slate is simple – you are playing two of the big three arms in Yu, Bauer and Kershaw. You can play other arms if you are multi-entering but in single entry life – your player pool should be limited to this trio only.
From there, what I would do is focus on getting a 5 man stack that fits around them (I used the Angles as my example) and then finding a 2-3 man value stack to make it all work within the salary cap constraints.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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