Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Main Slate Breakdown
Welcome into a 9 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate where we will shift our focus after a MONSTER night for the Win Daily Sports team with takedowns and green screens galore – you simply love to see it!
Congrats to each and every one of you who keeps grinding and improving your game daily.
The biggest issue we have tonight is weather – with rain/storm concerns in both Atlanta and Baltimore that could completely change how we attack this slate.
Pitching Picks
This Main Slate is really interesting because while we have a deep pitching pool in name/theory – the truth is, all the options feel overpriced and unnecessary.
Let’s break it down for you:
- Freddy Peralta ($10.2K) – On a clear pitch count as the season winds down and threw only 53 pitches last time out. No thank you.
- Shane McLanahan ($9.7K) – the swings and misses remain but so too does the hard contact and inability to put up zeroes and the Red Sox lineup is getting healthier.
- Nathan Eovaldi ($9.5K) – HAHAHAHAHA. He plays the Rays. HAHAHAHA
- Yu Darvish ($9.3K) – This is the trap play of the night and I think it is where we can make some serious waves by fading the arm I expect everyone anchors to after what Blake Snell did and with Shohei Ohtani still sidelined in the NL Park. We brought this up his last start before he went out and gave up 5 ER and 8 hits in just 2.2 innings but something is off with Darvish right now as his velocity remains significantly below his season long numbers and it is fair to wonder if the back injury is lingering. I want no part of him tonight as likely chalk – he is broken right now and I am not paying a premium with ownership in the hope the 35 year old regains his form tonight.
Frankie Montas ($9K) – of all the arms in this price range, he is the one I feel best about and his recent form at near 30% K rate with a 35% K rate against RHB stands out on a slate without many ceiling options. Getting Montas in Oakland is always where I prefer toplay him as well as his K rate increases, his HR/9 rate drops and he uses his elite ground ball skillsto limit hard contact and give you added run prevention. I don’t consider Montas a must play but if I am paying up for one arm today – it is him.
As you can tell, I am far from enamored with the pitching pool at the top and the sad reality is – it does not get any better as you drop down into the value range. There is simply not a single-arm I feel like I NEED to play or HAVE to use. So rather than play the arms themselves – are we better off playing the matchups?
There has been no better match-up for strikeouts in baseball the last month of the season than the Chicago Cubs and so while the volatility is real, so is the upside for Vladimir Guttierez ($7.7K) today. No team in baseball has struck out more than the Cubs the last month at a 29.1% rate and over the last two weeks, it has been more of the same with a 28.9% K rate that is a full 3% higher than any other team in the bigs. If the Reds right-hander can get a right-handed heavy lineup to cater to his 27% K rate the last 30 days against RHB – the path is there for upside but also realize you are paying a premium for the match-up and there is considerable floor here.
It may not seem it – but if we want consistency – well, playing a left-handed pitcher against the Orioles may be the way to go. Welcome to a Mike Minor ($6.7K) reccomendation – gross.
If you look at the recent trends for LHP against the Orioles courtesy of Statmuse, you will see that every single one of the last 14 lefties toface Baltimore has gone for double-digit DK points and 9 of the 14 have eclipsed 20 DK point outings.
While we never start a day thinking – man I cannot wait to play Mike Minor, the recent data would suggest there is a sneaky blend of run prevention and K upside for him this evening. In the context of this slate, give me 10-15 DK points and I will lock you in right now.
Time to Stack
We now enter into the stacks part of Picks and Pivots and let’s just cut the small talk and rename this – “How to Stack the Tampa Bay Rays Tonight.”
You would think after they continue to destroy every arm they face and coming off last night’s beatdown in Fenway they would be chalky today without Coors on the slate but the beautiful thing about tonight is that 5 teams have higher IRt’s than they do which means everyone will chase the shiny toys and we can keep stacking the best offense in baseball.
Sure Nathan Eovaldi is a talented arm, so was Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale before that. Guys – this offense comes at you in waves from both sides with tons of power and the Red Sox bullpen is hot garbage on a platter. I am stacking 5 Rays – you should too. Unless you hate money – then don’t.
One key note – Randy Arozarena has been put on the paternity list and the Rays called up top OF prospect, Josh Lowe. He is $2K and has absolutely mashed in the minors. This Rays lineup just got so much easier and cheaper to stack. Giddy up.
At the same time we get the Rays on the road, we also get the Kansas City Royals against Matt Harvey and the Orioles pen in Camden Yards. If you have been to the Picks and Pivots party before you know I LOVE how these two teams correlate on DraftKings as you can mix and match the Rays and Royals in so many ways especially with the position flexibility they have.
So we get to the part now where you greedy HR hungry readers are waiting for. After 4 straight days of predicitng HR’s including a 1% double dong from Mike Zunino last night – I have to step up my game. And step I shall.
So I am going to call 2 shots for 2 Lock tonight.
Over the last month, Matt Harvey is giving up a .250 ISO and 60% HC rate to left-handed batters and he does so on two primary pitches – a sinker that he throws 31% of the time and has been hit for a .444 ISO and a curve he throws 21% of the time and has been hit for a .625 ISO mark the last month.
So we start with the sinker – and our first HR call of the night – Carlos Santana ($3K). Santana has a massive .342 ISO, 45% HC rate and team high 340 average distance traveled against this pitch. Harvey is throwing him a sinker tonight and it’s just like the ocean under the moon. Oh, it’s the same as the emotion that I get from you. You got the kind of lovin’ that can be so smooth, yeah. Give him a sinker, make it hang, or then forget about it.
Yes, I broke out a song lyric home run call. Smooth.
The other bat that stand out against the curveball is Andrew Benintendi – with a .309 ISO and 55% HC rate and a team-high 80% contact rate against this pitch type. With the hot and humd temperatures and the wind blowing in in KC – this is a spot where the Royals OF will get a hanger and deposit it in the Camden bleachers.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
This MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate is a solid one but also one that I think is not going to be clear tomost and require you to think differently. If and when ownership drives chalk today – that may help us identify some slight pivot paths off the build concept I outlined above.
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
