Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers
After a huge day for the Win Daily Family on the first day of the MLB Playoffs, we are back with an 8 game slate that takes us from noon to 10 PM EST with both the AL and NL in play.
Much like yesterday – we have some serious top-end talent in the pitching pool and my man Adam Strangis broke it down as only he could in today’s Starting Rotation.
I absolutely agree that Tyler Glasnow is the best arm on this slate with K metrics that lead every arm on the slate and much like Giolito/Snell yesterday, it seems easy to take the “discount” on him and still get arguably the best arm available.
We have very little room for error when picking our two arms on DK, especially with as many high K ceiling arms as we have available to us – but I think on today’s slate – much like yesterday (Giolito/Snell) – you can actually pay down at pitching and still find a successful path to cashing.
Hyun Jin Ryu ($8.1K) is my favorite of the pay down GPP arms on this slate as his match-up against the Rays in Tampa Bay screams upside. No team in baseball has a higher K rate against LHP in 2020 than Tampa Bay, striking out at a 28.5% clip and we have seen Ryu have success in this spot recently – going 5 innings (94 pitches) with 6K’s and just 1 ER allowed.
Left-handed pitchers have been feasting on the Rays in September as well – and let’s be honest, arms far less intriguing than Ryu is from a skill set perspective. When guys like John Means (12 K’s and 35 DK points), Trevor Rogers (10 K’s and 25 DK points), Martin Perez (6 K’s and 19 DK points) and Mike Kickham (8 K’s and 17 DK points) can all find success – I think there is a clear floor/ceiling for Ryu that could anchor our builds this afternoon.
My only concern with Ryu is the pitch count as we saw Tampa was super careful with Snell yesterday (82 pitches) so there could be a short leash again on Ryu which would cap his upside.
The real value though may be in an arm that the metrics only crew will overlook but those who know the pedigree will not – and that is Masahiro Tanaka ($6.7K).
Regular season Tanaka is not going to jump off the page with just a 22% K rate but playoff Tanaka, well – that is a totally different story. Tanaka has made 8 postseason starts in his career, with a dazzling 1.76 ERA and over 7 K’s per 9 while allowing just .78 HR/9. In those 8 starts, Tanaka has put up 24+DK points half of the time all while averaging right at 20 DK points per start.
Last season, Tanaka went for 24+ DK points in 2 of his 3 postseason starts – and that is notable because he only hit that mark in 5 of 32 regular season starts (15%). This is not a metrics/analytics-based pick so much as it is anchoring to a veteran arm that is one of the best postseason arms in baseball recent past and one that has shown he takes his game to another level when the stage is the biggest.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks
Going with cheaper arms on this slate is not simply driven by the fact I like Ryu/Tanaka – let’s be clear – it is also largely a byproduct of the offenses I feel are building blocks on this slate – the Padres and Cubs.
LHP Kwang Hyun Jim takes the ball for the Cardinals and while his 1.62 ERA is tidy, the advanced metrics shout regression with a 4.6 xFIP, 5 SIERA and an 87% left on base rate which is substantially higher than the 71% league average.
The Padres are the kind of high powered offense that could make a low K arm like Kim struggle and when you have a right-handed heavy team with a .240 ISO against LHP this season, well you start to see the stacking appeal.
Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado are core plays in this stack as Machado has an absurd .330 ISO mark against LHP since 2019 while Tatis has been pummeling balls from lefties in 2020 to the tune of a 53% HC rate and average distance of 363 feet!
Wil Myers ($5.1K) is expensive on DK but his .302 ISO mark and 52% HC rate since 2019 support the price tag and you can round out a stack with someone like Austin Nola the fill in your Catcher spot who gives you a .223 ISO and 50% HC rate of his own. Lastly, Tommy Pham ($3.6K) gives you a HR or bust kind of mid-range OF play that can be mixed and matched with the OF’s in our secondary stack (Cubs) to help with MME builds today.
The Padres are pricey but as we saw with the White Sox yesterday, I think they are the kind of stack that anchors a winning GPP build.
We have 20 MPH winds blowing out to RF in Wrigley this afternoon and a pitcher in Sandy Alcantara who is giving up a .225 ISO and near 50% fly ball rate to lefties this season – so yeah, fire up the Cubs lefty stack!
There are four bats that right away we need to dive into – with Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward and Kyle Schwarber all sporting .200+ ISO marks against RHP this season.
Alcantara is going to use his sinker as his primary pitch (50%) to drive ground balls and really the only arm that profiles poorly is Heyward who has a sub 20% fly ball rate against RHP and a 60% GB rate against the sinker.
Rizzo, Happ and Schwarber are my core plays in this stack as they have high fly ball tendencies against this pitch type and guys like Happ (.418 ISO) and Schwarber (.317 ISO) both have shown some serious power against Alcantara’s primary offering.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Much like yesterday, my player pool is going to be quite concentrated with a SP crew of Glasnow, Ryu and Tanaka – all with the idea of stacking up Padres RHB and Cubs LHB.
We saw yesterday even on a small slate that hitting stacks of 5/3 were the key in winning GPP builds (5 CWS and 3 NYY) and I think going back to something similar today with the Cubs and Padres is how we keep this Win Daily hot streak rolling!
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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