Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers
After a night of crazy high MLB DFS scores due to the Giants putting up 23 runs, we are back tonight with a 10 game slate that thankfully has no Coors Field to sort through!
We have a ton of top-end starting pitching with high K ability with Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler and Dinelson Lamet all available but there are some interesting pivots sitting below them with match-ups that may make them better plays. Now – all that being said, each and every one of these three aces is a great play and it will likely come down to salary more than anything.
While the opponents facing Max (17% K rate), Buehler (18%) and Lamet (20%) have been stingy in 2020 to opposing arms in terms of K’s – you can pivot down to someone like Christian Javier who while his K metrics may not stand on par with a Mad Max – his opponent, the Texas Rangers, have a 23.1% K rate against opposing RHP this season.
So this is an interesting case of match-up over player and targeting arms against Texas has been a profitable endeavor in recent weeks.
In the last two weeks, 12 SP’s have had this match-up with 5 of them going for 20+ DK points and 7 or more K’s and that is exactly the kind of upside you are looking at here with Javier who has a 25.3% K rate thus far in 2020 and gives you the chance to align a high K arm with a high K match-up that may not get the same name recognition as the arms directly above him in terms of pricing on DK.
We have been attacking high K upside call-ups here in Picks and Pivots over the last two weeks with consistent success and one of those arms takes the hill again tonight in Triston McKenzie ($6.7K) against the Royals.
McKenzie dazzled in his first start against the Tigers, racking up 10 K’s and 34 DK points before falling back to earth a bit in his second start against St. Louis – failing to reach double-digits.
While the K output fell back significantly, if you dig deeper you can see that much of that was due to his 20% drop in first pitch strikes versus the first start he made – forcing him to fall behind hitters which then changed his pitch mix.
By falling behind, McKenzie needed to use his fastball 10% more and what that also meant is he got far less use of his nasty curveball, throwing it just 9% versus 22% in his previous start.
Took a look at that curve and you will see why getting ahead of hitters and using this as his put out pitch is quite important.
So the Royals today are a team that while they may not be as K heavy as Detroit who strikes out 28% of the time against RHP, they do K at a 24.3% rate versus righties this year and if McKenzie can get ahead of hitters like he did against Detroit – there are very few arms this cheap with he kind of upside he has!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks
Paying down a bit at SP tonight allows you to stack up the bats and we have a ton of good spots with my favorite being the San Diego Padres against Julio Teheran.
We all know the deal with attacking Teheran – you load up on lefties, any and all.
This year has been no different, with Teheran surrendering a .517 ISO to lefties with a tidy little 63% hard contact rate. So go ahead and rock Trent Grisham (.298 ISO versus RHP this year) and pick between either Eric Hosmer or Mitch Moreland at 1B, who both have .300+ ISO marks this season against righties and pair them with 2B Jake Cronenworth and his .351 ISO mark.
Now if you are going to stack San Diego, while you want the platoon advantage – you cannot stack them without including the stars like Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. who are elite plays regardless of handedness of the opposing arm and if we can get past Teheran, we get a beatable Angles bullpen that these two can tee off on.
Speaking of splits we want to attack – the Atlanta Braves can provide a night little secondary stack alongside the Padres as their right-handed core takes on LHP Mike Kickham, a 31 year old journeyman being called up from AAA. Sorry but a 31 year old career minor leaguer who barely cracks a 20% K rate doesn’t inspire much confidence and the Braves stack once again is right back in play.
The 3-4-5 of Marcell Ozuna, Travis d’Arnaud and Adam Duvall have .345, .240 and .323 ISO marks respectively against LHP since the start of last season and they work perfectly alongside the Padres from a position perspective as we look to stack.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
To me, I love the idea of going high/low at SP tonight and then mixing and matching the Padres/Braves stacks together – while they are pricey, paying down at SP2 with someone like McKenzie gives you ample salary room to make it all work!
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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