Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers
Opening up this 9 game MLB DFS Main Slate on Wednesday, the text I got from Adam Strangis last night makes total sense – this is the perfect Picks and Pivots day – and boy is he right.
We have a ton of high end starting pitching to choose from, which lends itself to a “Double Aces” kind of night where we anchor to the high K equity of our arms and it all starts with the best pitcher in baseball over the last 3 seasons – Jacob deGrom ($10.4K).
deGOAT is sporting a 37.8% K rate and a 21.3% swinging strike rate which are both 5% increases over his past two Cy Young seasons – seriously, he’s actually getting better. Today he will take on the Phillies, without Realmuto and Hoskins, and while their K rate as a team drops with those bats out – so too does their pop, with a team ISO of just .133 against RHP this season.
Now the nest two arms – Lucas Giolito and Gerrit Cole become viable pivots and Adam did a great job of breaking them down in today’s Starting Rotation so rather than simply regurgitate his analysis – let me pivot to Dylan Bundy ($9.1K).
Bundy’s price jumped out to me right away today as this has been a pitcher priced at $9.8K or higher in each of his last four starts, so today we get a discount on an arm who over the last two weeks has actually seen his K rate increase to 35% compared to 29% on the season.
If you want to go more high/low, then I think there is merit to dropping down to Brady Singer ($6.2K) who gets the match-up we all know and love – righties against the Tigers. With Jonathan Schoop on the DL, this Tigers projected lineup has a massive 29% K rate against RHP and Singer, the former first-rounder, is coming off his best start of 2020 with 8 innings and 8 K’s against the Indians on his way to 36 DK points.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks
So any time we start with double ace type builds, we need value stacks and we want one with power against exploitable pitchers. Oh no – is that – it can’t be…..is that…..JON LESTER’S music?!?!?!?!
Yes my friends it has been a while here in Picks and Pivots since we went against our old friend Jon Lester, but we don’t just stack willy nilly here – we pick our spots and this is the spot to pick.
Let’s break it down for old Jonny boy as this season the regression train has hit full on, with a 5.17 xFIP as his single digit swinging strike rate combined with a 82% contact rate and 42% hard contact rate have resulted in what we have chased now the the last few seasons – balls being hit hard and often and opposing offenses putting up crooked numbers.
The way to attack Lester is with RHB and the Indians will have 9 of em today – yeah, that’s a whole lineup. In 2020, Lester has surrendered a .229 ISO to right-handed batters and this lineup has a .222 ISO against LHP since the start of last season.
You can start with the big spends here with Lindor/Ramirez who are both well over $5K, but the benefit of this stack is you have multiple ways to save – including Jordan Luplow/Oscar Mercado who are $2.2K each on DK (hello value).
Lester is relying nearly 40% of the time on his cutter against RHB this season – and take a look at some of the ISO marks of these Indians hitters – Franmil Reyes (.214), Jordan Luplow (.263) and Roberto Perez (.438).
Stack the Indians. Just, do it.
If you are stacking the Indians, then finding the secondary stack becomes more a discussion of position than anything else and for me the key decision point becomes 2B – the one spot where the Indians are weak.
There are two names that stand out here – DJ LeMahieu and Jose Altuve – who are amazing $2K apart in pricing as Altuve at $3.4K seems like a crazy mis-price.
Going with a Yankees/Astros secondary stack with these 2B gives you some serious power upside and really for me – the decision on which team you stack comes down to how you handle your SP2.
If you do double aces, the Yankees are a luxury you cannot afford, so it means the Astros with Altuve as your 2B becomes the path. The Astros have the highest IRT on the slate and take on Kyle Gibson who is giving up the 2nd highest HC rate among all starting pitchers this season at 45.2%. Gibson is giving up a .200+ ISO mark to hitters from both sides of the plate and has surrendered 2 or more HR’s in 3 of his last 4 games.
However, if you opt to pivot down to someone like Singer as your SP2, all of a sudden you can afford the Yankee bats that erupted last night with the return of Giancarlo Stanton. The biggest unknown with the Yankees is the line-up as they have already hinted they may give guys breaks (like Stanton) in an effort to keep them healthy before the playoffs.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Listen, I wrote a lot today but let’s be clear – its a double aces and stack against Lester day. It is just that simple. Let’s hop on that regression train one more time – CHOO CHOO!
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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