Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Pitching Breakdown
Gross.
This pitching slate is gross.
Here is the one thing I think we have to do when picking our SP options today – we need to factor in “safety” and we need to account for ownership.
If yesterday taught us anything – it was do not try and get cute with the unknown – see Deivi Garcia – who was 25% owned because he was cheap and facing the Rays and then got yanked after just one inning when the Yankees decided to fool us all and rock him as an opener.
We also saw Max Fried push 50-60% ownership in GPP’s and fail to make it to double-digit fantasy points against the Marlins.
The “safe” choices yesterday were the right ones – guys like Tyler Glasnow and Framber Valdez gave you 5 and 7 innings each and even Walker Buehler to a point “got there” as a result of 8 K’s in just 4 innings of work.
Today – that safe play is clearly Clayton Kershaw. He is the only starter on this slate with both the K upside but also the innings security to feel good about locking him in. Sure you can argue the tournament fade and stack Padres bats against him but the issue is – there is almost no other option I want.
Yeah, that includes Ian Anderson. Sorry Adam, I know this is your boy and you wrote him up again in Starting Rotation and yes, I will take my L on stacking the Reds against him in the Wild Card round. However, if Fried was 50% owned yesterday on a slate with more viable pitching options -what is Anderson ging to be today?
We talked about this yesterday in Discord but this Marlins team is far more a floor match-up for opposing arms than it is a ceiling match-up. 25right-handers have taken the mound against Miami as a starter this season and 13 times they have failed to reach double-digit points.
That includes Mr. Anderson – who while yes, he did get a 20 DK point performance his last start against Miami, failed to make it past 3 innings just 7 days prior and ended with 9 DK points.
Anderson made 6 regular season starts and his swinging strike rate was 18%, 15%, 12%, 11% and 7% (twice). Take a guess who the two 7% games were against. Those pesky Marlins!
If you are fading Anderson as an SP2, it gets dicey – AND FAST.
So this may blow up in my face – but hear me out – what if we decide to fade Anderson and pay up for our SP2 – with either Zach Davies or Chris Paddack?
Yes, I know it is the Dodgers and in fact, I actually argued the stack against Paddack yesterday so why the change in tune? The circumstances are different today with the lack of arms and the fact that San Diego needed NINE arms in a bullpen game last night so whoever draws the start is going to be asked for length – a seemingly impossible commodity to find in the playoffs these days.
Davies and Paddack have identical 22.7% K rates this season – a significant step up for Davies and a step down for Paddack after his rookie campaign. Davies faced LA twice this season, giving up 2 and 3 ER, going 6 and 7 innings and putting up 15 DK points per game. Honestly – can I just sign up for that now?
The Dodgers are projected to roll out 6 right-handed batters which could actually work in Davies favor as his K rate is 28% or 10% higher against RHB this season. Using pitchers against the Dodgers is never the ideal route – but I think tonight it is one we are going to have to seriously consider.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks
Locking in Kershaw and then moving on to your bats is probably the best way to start your builds – and then, whatever SP2 you land on, is well, fair game.
If Anderson is going to be chalky – I have no problem going right back to the Marlins mini-stack especially with the value they provide. It is #FreeSquare SZN with Jon Berti ($2.4K) and Matt Joyce ($2.2K) and frankly, even if you eat the chalk on Anderson, I would still be fine using one of these guys as a salary saving one-off.
The Braves on the other side were held in check yesterday for much of the game by Sandy Alcantara before they went bonkers on the Marlins bullpen. Today they face righty Pablo Lopez, yes the same pitcher who they faced back on 9/9 – remember the game the Braves scored 29 runs?!?!?!?!
Lopez is not a #BAD pitcher but the Braves offense is arguably the most dangerous on the slate and I have no issue making them the core stack today due to their metrics against RHP. Atlanta has 3 of the first 7 hitters in their lineup with .300+ ISO marks against righ0-handed pitching including Acuna, Freeman and Duvall.
Overall, this projected line-up has a tidy .250 ISO against RHP and we saw it yesterday, all it takes is a few swings of the bat and this stack can get you there in a HURRY!
There is a reason they have a slate high 5.1 IRT – stack away.
Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Today – is going to be about ownership and game theory for me. While I toyed with the idea of a Padres stack against chalky Kershaw – think there are more realistic pivot paths which include fading/stacking against the chalky secondary arms like Anderson.
We need to watch ownership today – and we need to think through our leverage. That is where I will be all morning in Discord – leading up to lock!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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