Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday Slate Breakdown:
Well this could be it my friends – with the Rays one game away from the World Series, this could be the final two game slate and Picks and Pivots of the MLB season. If it is – I just want to thank you all for reading along in this abbreviated sprint of a season and I hope you were able to get better at MLB DFS each day and make some money along the way!
It is really hard to make an argument to fade Tyler Glasnow today – like really hard. We finally have an elite K arm on a two-game slate and that 38% K rate is so far and away the best on the slate that the opportunity cost could be massive if you opt to fade him.
The argument, besides ownership, is that Houston is a low K team – striking out just 19% against RHP and while the K metrics are off the charts for Glasnow – it is worth noting that he has given up a .268 ISO and 2.45 HR/9 to RHB this season.
So you can take a few paths here – 1) Play the clear best arm on the slate and hope you guess right on the bats as your way to differentiate 2) Fade Glasnow and hope it is a floor game for him or 3) Go full leverage and stack against him with the right-handed heavy Astros.
It is potentially the last slate of the MLB season – let’s put it all out there and get crazy today my friends! That is right – option #3 it is.
Now not only are you fading the best arm on the slate, but you are going to attack him and THEN attack the elite pen of the Rays. It is risky – super risky – but it could a massive payoff in GPP’s.
Think about it – if the Astros can get to Glasnow early, you not only get that leverage on the field but if Houston can get ahead you also likely face the “lesser” arms in the Tampa pen.
If you are going this route – you want to stick with the righties who profile well – and that is ones who hit high-velocity fastballs well as well as the curveball which make up nearly 90% of Glasnow’s offerings – that means George Springer and Alex Bregman are must-plays in this build.
Martin Maldonado and Carlos Correa profile well against the fastball and curve alone so would be secondary options. The one batter who stinks against both – Jose Altuve– as he has a sub .150 ISO against both pitch types.
The other offense that really intrigues me tonight is the Atlanta Braves as they will take on Julio Urias to start before they get into the beat up Dodgers pen which has now had to account for 9+ innings the last two nights.
Urias is a high velo fastball dependent arm and that could spell trouble against the Braves – in fact, there are some serious eye-popping individual match-ups. Marcell Ozuna (.545 ISO), Travis d’Arnaud (.778 ISO) and Dansby Swanson (.400) all hammer high-velocity fastballs from lefties with Ozuna and TDA both sporting massive 100+ EV on average.
Now if you are following along – what this now means is we are fading the chalk (at least in what I expect will be the chalk) – as Tyler Glasnow and Dodgers bats with a 5.5 IRT are likely going to be the core build for many.
It is a two-game slate – and if that is going to be the chalk where picking between Max Muncy or Cody Bellinger as my HR call will be how I get different – well, I think your path to really separate from the field becomes minuscule.
So let’s attack this different – can we stack up the Braves/Astros and use Zack Greinke/Kyle Wright as our arms?
Grienke is not the same arm he used to be however this is still an arm with a 29% K rate against LHB this season and he will take on a Rays projected line-up with a 29% K rate and 5-6 lefties in it. My guess – Greinke is the SP2 chalk alongside Glasnow.
Kyle Wright will likely be the lowest owned arm on this slate against the Dodgers and their lofty Vegas total and while his metrics against lefties are the risk – with 5 RHB in the lineup, why are we so quick to dismiss the 53%GB rates, .118 ISO and 23% K rate against righties in 2020?
Now “managing” his way through lefties like Seager, Muncy and Bellinger is a tall task but with how the Dodgers space out the R/L in their line-up – I think there is a path for him to use his full arsenal to work through this Dodgers chalky attack.
Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Here is how I see today playing out ownership wise. Glasnow is the massive chalk alongside the Dodgers bats.
Greinke/Urias likely garner similar ownership as the SP2 – and I lean towards getting more because using the Rays cheap bats (against Greinke) are a path to getting Glasnow/Dodger based builds.
So going with the Astros bats becomes the ultimate leverage against Glasnow but if Urias is a popular SP2 – you can almost attack the clear pitching chalk in one fell swoop by going Astros/Braves.
Could be our last slate today my friends so let’s take a stand and try to PIVOT one more time! Go Astros!
Time to dig in – let’s get it today!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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