Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Wednesday, May 19th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown
Well hello, there my friends and welcome back to a 12 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots for Wednesday Night where we are LOADED with aces and one trouble weather spot in KC which could take Corbin Burnes out of play.
On any normal slate, losing an arm like Burnes would change the slate dynamic but tonight with Kershaw/Scherzer as easy pivots in the $10K price range, it frankly does not change all that much.
It is not often we have four arms with 30%+ K rates on a slate but that is exactly what we have tonight with Corbin Burnes, Max Scherzer, Trevor Rogers and Shohei Ohtani. As Adam Strangis broke down in our Starting Rotation, the top end of the pitching pool is simply LOADED and I am not sure there is a reason to stray from the path he laid out.
Pricing matters in MLB DFS and the fact we can get Shohei Ohtani at $7.4K is laughable. We are getting one of the best arms in baseball and highest K DFS plays as a cheap SP2 and for that reason – I am going to argue strongly to take the path tonight in GPP’s of pairing him with one of the $10K aces because the salary constraints are not all that limiting.
The other option would be to treat Ohtani like an SP1 – which frankly all metrics would support and take the path of getting a $10K skillset for just $7K and then going cheaper with your SP2!
One SP2 in that scenario is Ryan Yarbrough ($6.6K) who is going to operate as a traditional starter for the Rays against the Orioles in Camden Yards. Yarbrough has primarily been a bulk reliever for Tampa but tonight he is working as a traditional starter and the last time he did that he threw 103 pitches in 6 innings against the Astros.
Since the start of last season, Yarbrough has allowed just a 25% hard contact which is one of the lowest marks on this slate, and in baseball and his 12.2% swinging-strike rate is almost identical to that of Mr. Ohtani. Yarbrough has the ability to limit the damage and still rack up swings and misses against an Orioles team with a 22-23% K rate against LHP this season.
The other cheap option we cannot overlook tonight is RHP Logan Gilbert ($4.7K), one of the best minor league arms in baseball who gets his second start against the Detroit Tigers. Gilbert showed you his talent against the Indians with a 28% K rate and 14% SS rate and I would argue, there may not be a better match-up for him tonight against Detroit.
On the season, the Tigers rank second in baseball with a 27.5% K rate against RHP – we just saw Justin Dunn (23 DK) and Kyle Hendricks (31 DK) put up strong scores against this same team and Gilbert has a pedigree that neither of those arms have. Imagine the damage you can do with your bats if you use him as your SP2!
Now going a path with Ohtani as your SP1 is going to mean you have insane money left to stack and well, if you pair him with Gilbert – you have nearly $5K per batter! Yeah – that will work!
The first stack that we come across is the New York Yankees against LHP Hyeong-Jan Yang who has given up a .239 ISO and 43% HC rate to RHB this season and here come the right-handed heavy Yankees bats!
The Yankees are expected to get Gleyber Torres back in the line-up tonight which means we likely have 9 right-handed batters in the Yankee starting line-up this evening. Aaron Judge is the clear top dog in any Yankee stack with his .382 ISO versus LHP this season but when you look into the pitch types, you find some interesting plays to use around him.
Gio Urshela has a .225 ISO and nearly 310 average distance traveled with a 41% HC rate against the change-up from lefties which is what Yang throws nearly a third of the time.
If Gary Sanchez is able to return to the lineup after leaving with cramps he also profiles well against both the change-up and slider from lefties but if we end up needing to pivot to Kyle Higashioka, remember this is a bat with a .350 ISO mark and 60% fly-ball rate against LHP so he could pay off with one swing.
The other stack that catches my eye tonight is the LA Dodgers as they take on RHP Merril Kelly and the DBacks. There is no pitcher on the slate that has given up a higher hard contact rate (41%) since the start of last season than Kelly. This year he is giving up a 50% HC rate to hitters from both sides of the plate with a .200 ISO to LHB.
The nice part about the Dodgers is they are priced quite nicely where you have the obvious elite bats in Mookie Betts ($6K), Max Muncy ($5.3K) and Justin Turner ($5.2K) but after that, you will find a ton of value with guys like Gavin Lux ($3.3K) and Matt Beaty ($3.4K) hitting in the heart of the order behind them.
Tonight – I love the GPP appeal of going Ohtani/Gilbert and then stacking the big Yankees/Dodgers bats in what could provide a MASSIVE MLB DFS ceiling!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
This slate looks like a ton of fun as we have so many elite arms to choose from and big dollar stacks. The Shoehei Ohtani mis-pricing is going to define this slate but it really is what you do from there that will make or break your night.
You have every ability to pay for a $10K arm with Ohtani or you can use Ohtani as a discount SP1, pay down for Logan Gilbert in an elite match-up against the Tigers and use that salary to stack the Dodgers and Yankees together!
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
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