Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Wednesday, June 30th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Early Slate Breakdown
Welcome into a split slate MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Wednesday where we get a full day of baseball after a big night of wins last night at Win Daily Sports where one of our PGA Staff writers won big with a double ace build we outlined yesterday in our article! Congrats Isaiah on a huge night!
We start the day off with a 4 game Early Slate at 1 PM EST with Arizona/St. Louis and the games are spaced out every hour with the final game between Tampa and Washington, starting after 4 PM EST which will bring a unique challenge in that we likely won’t have all the line-ups before lock. I bring that up because when building your line-ups, specifically the batters, I would work to keep your player pool to games that start around the same time.
We know for day games, lineups get wonky, stars get rest, bench guys get starts – and so with that unpredictability comes chaos for MLB DFS lineups. I would either front load OR backload your bats so you either have known lineups before lock OR maximize your flexibility post lock by stacking the later games.
The absolute hardest part of this early slate is the pitching, with Milwaukee making the decision to push Corbin Burnes back to Thursday and we officially have no aces to pull from and honestly, there are barely any serviceable arms to utilize either.
Now on these small slates, I will always argue that playing strategy over “best plays” is the single best way to gain leverage in GPP’s and this slate is the perfect example of how we can employ that strategy.
Let’s see – there is no player in baseball right now hotter than Kyle Schwarber and on a small slate like this, my guess is he becomes the “must play” as folks rush to stack the Nationals against Michael Wacha.
So why not play Michael Wacha ($7.3K)?
If you look at Wacha’s splits this season, he has a strong 25.4% K rate against RHB versus just an 11.7% rate against LHB. Now again, you could look at this as a reason to play Schwarber OR realize that the Nationals line-up will have 5 of the 8 batters hitting from the right side plus the pitcher which seemingly gives you more paths to value for Wacha as leverage.
Wacha was impressive in his last start against the Red Sox, striking out 7 batters over 5 innings on his way to 23.5 DK points and his 17% SS rate is something we simply cannot overlook. In that game against Boston, Wacha threw his change-up nearly 30% of the time, a considerable uptick on his season-long marks, and his 43% SS rate on that pitch type is what got him the majority of his K upside.
If the Nationals are chalk (mostly due to Schwarber) and they run out a righty heavy line-up, Wacha could be the key to lapping the field in GPP’s today!
Taking this a step further – Marc Topkins confirmed that Drew Rasmussen will open for the Rays before going to Wacha. Why does this matter? Well if Rasmussen faces the top of the order with Soto-Schwarber-Bell – that means Wacha comes in to face the bottom of the order which is right-handed heavy. Honestly, I think this is a big boost to Wacha as a play!
What if I told you the best offense on the slate was actually on the other side of this game as we get to celebrate Jon Lester Day by using my favorite stack in MLB DFS against him – The Tampa Bay Rays!
We talk about this every 5 days with Mr. Regression himself but Lester is someone we can and should attack at will. With a .225 ISO to RHB this season, the splits are clear in how to attack him and the pitch data even more so!
If you are new to Picks and Pivots – let me break it down. For those of you who know, well you know. Lester throws a cutter as his primary pitch to RHB and the metrics are not kind – to the tune of a .571 ISO and 44% HC rate. Why does he keep throwing it? I do not know – but let’s keep attacking it!
Both Manuel Margot and Randy Arozarena have .330 ISO marks against that pitch type and Margot homered on that exact pitch type the last time they faced Lester in Tampa Bay. The Rays can get very right-handed heavy with Mike Brosseau and Yandy Diaz but you need to understand the pinch-hit risk that exists with them as the Rays can very quickly go L/R as they did this last night when the Nationals went to the pen.
I bring this up because this is a prime reason why we should not ignore the lefties from Tampa Bay in our stack. If Austin Meadows and Brandon Lowe are starting against the lefty, then you know they are committed to using them and the pinch-hit risk for them becomes nearly zero later in the game because the right-handed batters started the game already.
Also – if we stack against Lester, we are expecting him to be out early in the game and as we saw in his last start against Miami, once he got blown up – it was a right-handed heavy Nationals bullpen that came in to mop up and that is where Meadows and Lowe could do serious low-owned damage.
If the Nats bats are chalk, it will be interesting to see what happens with the Rockies in Coors Field. You would think on a short slate they would be chalk but maybe they won’t be and all of a sudden stacking Rockies becomes – weirdly contrarian.
We know the deal with Pirates SP Chad Kuhl, as we attack and attack hard with left-handed batters due to his .230 ISO and 46% hard contact rate allowed.
His primary pitch against lefties – the slider, which he throws nearly 40% of the time, is a pitch that both Charlie Blackmon and Ryan McMahon have .250+ ISO marks against. Again – if Schwarber/Soto types are the OF chalk – are we really going to get someone like Blackmon in Coors on a short slate at low ownership?
To summarize – PLAY STRATEGY OVER PLAYS on this early slate. If Kyle Schwarber is 90% owned and hits another HR, you tip your cap and move on. But listen, this is baseball and if you are telling me a high variance sport and a high variance power hitter is going to be chalk – what better way to get leverage and hope you get his 0-4 day and lap the field with the low-owned pivots. Plus it’s Lester Day – let’s ride!
Main Slate Breakdown
Opening up this Main Slate, we have similar high-octane offenses to build around but the difference is we actually have strong top-tier arms to anchor to. As Adam Strangis broke down in our Starting Rotation ($) today – there is a significant argument to simply live in this top tier tonight.
The question is – can you really afford to pay up when we have the Houston Astros bats against Matt Harvey (again) or the Blue Jays at home against a lefty in Justus Sheffield who has given up a .200 ISO and 51% hard contact rate to RHB.
So is there a path to stacking the big offenses with some cheap arms? I actually think the answer is yes.
Bailey Ober ($5.7K) is the first arm that jumps out to me today as we have been attacking the White Sox with right-handed pitching all year and this spot looks prime for upside.
Ober’s splits are significant thus far, with a 27.3% K rate to RHB versus just a 14.7% rate to LHB and with a White Sox line-up that is likely to have 4-5 RHB and has a 27% K rate against RHP this season, the path for K’s is clear for the Twins right-hander. Ober relies on his slider to generate a 33% whiff rate to RHB and there is no single hitter on this Chicago team with any higher than a .175 ISO or even a 70% contact rate against that pitch type.
The other punt arm to focus on is Jordan Holloway ($4.4K) who has been recalled to start for Miami against Philadelphia after getting stretched out in the minors. After being sent down in May, Holloway has made 4 starts in AAA through June, ramping up to his longest outing where he went 5.2 IP back on June 22nd with 87 pitches thrown.
Holloway’s DK game log is misleading since he was pitching out of the pen but his 2.55 ERA with 14 K’s in 17 IP and just a 30% HC rate allowed, gives us reason to think he can pay off this price tag normally reserved for openers/relievers.
Thus far at the big league level, Holloway has a 23% K rate and 52% GB rate to RHB and the Phillies are going to throw out a line-up tonight with 5-6 right-handed bats, including the pitcher.
Now, if you are going this route with any sort of punt arms – it is solely to pay up for the big bats and the focus in my mind simply has to be with the Astros and Blue Jays. On a slate where the top-end arms are good but not great (sorry but Chris Bassitt should never be the highest-priced arm on a slate) – I am more than happy to pay down for arms with K upside to stack the big bats and make some serious GPP waves!
The Blue Jays bats are not going to sneak up on anyone tonight but if you look at our Matchup Tool here at Win Daily Sports, you will see just how much red is there for Justus and the Mariners pen – lock and load!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
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