Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
Looking back at Tuesday’s slate we saw lower scores across the board driven primarily by a lack of offense across the slate of games. Pitching wise, Merril Kelly racked up over 30 DK points on the back of 7K’s against the Rangers and it was the Angels stack we talked about here in Picks and Pivots yesterday that dropped 10 runs on Seattle with Anthony Rendon and Albert Pujols sending one deep.
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitcher Breakdown:
Well after two days of questioning where all the elite Major League arms have gone, we open up today’s slate and are rewarded with a plethora of top-tier arms to build our lineups around which will surely make today’s builds look and feel different from the last two main slates.
Jacob deGrom ($12K) and Gerrit Cole ($11.4K) sit 1-2 on this slate in terms of not only pricing but in the key metrics we look at for MLB DFS pitchers. Cole’s 39.6% K rate and 16.7% swinging-strike rate ranked just ahead of deGrom’s 32% and 15.6% metrics but both were league leaders and the kind of arms we want to anchor to in DFS builds.
Both New York arms were “limited” their first starts of the 2020 season as Cole threw 75 pitches in a rain-shortened outing while deGrom managed to get 72 pitches in before getting the quick hook after his pre-season back tightness made the Mets extra cautious.
Despite the limited innings, both pitchers did what we typically expect as Cole struck out 5 on his way to 24 DK points and deGOAT racked up 8 K’s on his way to 26 DK points.
With an uptick in pitch counts here tonight, these are clearly the top two options on the board that allow you to build in a 50+ fantasy point floor with a clear 60+ ceiling from your arms and the pricing remains reasonable enough where you can make builds you feel good about with both elite arms in your lineups.
If you want to drop down for some salary savings, Chris Paddack ($8.4K) and Andrew Heaney ($7.9K) offer a significant salary discount without sacrificing too much K upside. Heany’s 29.2% K rate and 14.2% SS rate and Paddack with marks of 26.7% and 11.4% give you strong strikeout upside for a fraction of the price as they take on two of the weakest lineups on the slate in the Mariners and Giants respectively.
The fact you can target these pitchers at a discount here tonight, both of whom are massive favorites against teams with low IRT’s, gives you a path to a build where you can now afford the big bats those who go with both deGrom/Cole will not be able to afford.
The ideal path – may be to simply mix and match here tonight with deGrom OR Cole as your SP1 and then plugging in Paddack OR Heaney as your SP2 which gives you the ability now to upgrade to a top-tier stack while still limiting your pitching pool to these 4 high k arms.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks:
As of this writing, we only have 3 teams with Vegas implied run totals (IRT) over 5 and it is no surprise that the premier offense here tonight will once again be the Minnesota Twins.
The Twins are loaded with power, we see it every single slate and with a right-hander on the mount in Ponce de Leon tonight, the projected line-up for Minnesota has a whopping SEVEN of their nine hitters with .200+ ISO marks against RHP over the last two seasons.
This is where I believe pricing and roster construction helps us dictate the slate – you can fit five Twins bats in with the SP1/SP2 combos note above without much difficulty and that allows you to get a high upside power stack alongside your top-tie strikeout arms.
The 1-5 stack will likely be the most popular route, but it is hard to argue against it as going Kepler, Donaldson, Polanco, Cruz and Rosario will give you a base build with multiple HR upside. Ponce de Leon has had a nearly 50% fly ball rate to LHB over the last two seasons and the lefties here – Kepler/Polanco/Rosario all have 42% or higher FB rates over the same period against RHP. Another night to stack those Twins!
Now if you are paying up for pitching AND the Twins, you are going to need some value and this is where the low-cost Detroit Tigers stack comes into play.
The Tigers are one of the other teams with a 5+ IRT but the pricing on these bats is a fraction of what it costs to get the Twins as an example. They make for an ideal secondary stack alongside the Twins OR if you want to go both deGrom/Cole – this is the team that you will stack around them to make it work.
The Tigers will take on LHP Danny Duffy, a fly ball pitcher who gave up a 43% hard contact rate to right handed batters and the Tigers have some serious right-handed pop at punt prices at the top of the order here tonight.
CJ Cron and Jonathon Schoop are going to cost you just over $3K each, but both of these players were lefty mashers a season ago with .313 and .286 ISO marks respectively.
Duffy relies on a fastball/slider combination against RHB and that slider is what could get him in trouble here tonight as Schoop and Cron hammered that pitch type last season from lefties. Schoop sported a .216 ISO mark and 42% HC rate while Cron led the team with a .385 ISO and 60% HC rate – so if Duffy tries a slide piece – it could end up giving Cron and Schoop a path to paying off with just one swing.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap Up
This slate, at least initially, seems pretty clear to me.
I am limiting my player pool to deGrom, Cole, Paddack and Heaney at pitcher and then going right to a five-man Twins stack while using the Tigers value. By doing so, I believe we can target serious power upside with 50-60 point outputs from our pitching combinations.
I will be in Discord all day talking baseball and even going through the early two-game slate so let’s get this party started!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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