DFSGhost 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:
Opening up this slate at first glance, there was a pairing that right away jumped out to me on DraftKings and that was Jacob deGrom ($11K) and Dinelson Lamet ($8.6K).
Both pitchers get elite home match-ups against the Marlins and Mariners respectively and check the boxes for all the key MLB DFS metrics we look for.
deGrom is doing his usual – 32% K rate, 18% swinging strike rate – and getting no run support. Rinse and repeat. Lamet is sporting a 34% K rate this season with a near 13% swinging strike rate and his price on DK seems legitimately $2K too cheap and becomes an easy SP2 decision.
This decision for me is simple – this duo has the K upside for GPP’s and Vegas has installed these two arms as 200+ home favorites against the teams with the the two lowest implied run totals. The fact we can build around them and still have nearly $4K per bat on DK is a path I am not willing to get cute with.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:
Honestly, this slate makes me smile.
I have to admit – I was a little sad on vacation missing out on the Jon Lester days and the the back to back starts where he gave up 6 HR’s and 13 ER. If you have been following Picks and Pivots for any period of time, you know I have been beating the drum for regression on Lester and these last two starts you are seeing it all come to fruition.
The advanced metrics show a pitcher with a minuscule swinging strike rate of 5% all around a batted ball profile surrendering a 46% HC rate and a .230 ISO to right-handed hitters in particular.
Well today, Lester faces off the with right-handed heavy hitting Detroit Tigers that has four batters in the top five of the projected line-up with .200+ ISO marks against LHP since 2019.
Thus far in 2020 that trend has only picked up as the top of the Tigers line-up is hammering lefties with guys like Jacoby Jones (.529 ISO), Jonathan Schoop (.211), Miguel Cabrera (.200) and Niko Goodrum (.476) all sporting serious power.
The nice part about this stack is the high/low pricing on DK as you can afford to pay up for guys like Schoop/Goodrum by balancing them out with cheaper bats like Miggy and Jacoby Jones (assuming he is in the line-up after leaving Tuesday with soreness).
The wheels are falling off – I see no reason to jump off the Lester Regression Train now – ALL ABOARD!
Speaking of lefties who have been hammered recently – welcome to Kolby Allard’s recent game log where he has given up 10 ER in back to back starts and tonight has to face the right-handed heavy Oakland A’s line-up.
From the start of 2019, the top SEVEN in this Oakland line-up all has .200+ ISO marks against LHP so there are a number of ways to stack up the A’s bats here today.
Digging into Allard’s pitch type, he relies heavily on his cutter to righties and all of Matt Chapman, Stephen Piscotty and Mark Canha have hammered that pitch with .200+ ISO marks with Chapman in particular having the highest HC rate and average distance traveled at 340 feet.
The A’s are super pricey today on DK but the Tigers value more than helps balance it out – all while allowing you to still pay up for the arms we want.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
I mean this one writes itself – I get deGrom and a stack against Lester. Where do I sign?
Honestly, being able to lock in the two best arms on the slate (IMO) and then pairing them with a high octane offense like Oakland, was not something I thought I could do initially but the price on Lamet as an SP2 and the value in Detroit’s line-up makes this a build that you can do with relative ease.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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