Jared Levitt 
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Picks and Pivots. Tonight we have a nice sized 11 game slate of MLB DFS on Draftkings to navigate through.
Main Slate Breakdown
It’s Jared and I’ll be filling in Brian over the next 2 weeks when I’m not writing Aces and Bases as he takes a much needed and well deserved vacation.
As I started to research tonight’s slate one thing became clear. We have a very possible path to having double aces, well one true ace and a pair of wannabe aces. We have a lineup that is woefully under priced that makes paying up for both pitchers very attainable.
Let’s start with pitching. The top pitcher for me tonight will be Corbin Burnes ($10.3k). He gets an extremely soft match up against a team that just isn’t hitting. Over the past week the Cubs have an insanely high strike out rate of nearly 37% with very limited power numbers.
Burnes has seem some regression in his strike outs over the past 30 days as his K rate is at 28% vs. nearly 36% on the year. This is the type of match up though where he gets closer to that 36%. Outside of Wilson Contreras, the project lineup that he’s facing tonight has really struggled against cutters.
Then next spot is where I need to choose. My choices right now are Kevin Gausman ($9.9K) and Adam Wainwright ($9.4k). Both guys project very well tonight and are facing lineups that have been striking out quite a bit of late. My lean right now is Wainwright as he gives us a $500 savings and we can absolutely use it.
The Pirates are surprisingly striking out a lot of late. Over the past week they have a near 30% K rate. The projected lineup that Wainwright will face tonight has a 29% K rate vs. righties. Waino has 4 straight starts of at least 19 DK points. This is the type of the match up where the floor of 19 is the worst case scenario tonight.
My top stack tonight will be the Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jake Arietta. I’m not sure why the Cubs continue to trot out Arietta, but for us, this is a good thing. This season has been especially brutal for Jake. He owns a 5.37 xFIP and just an 18% K rate. His fly ball rate of 33% is one of the highest marks of his career and 39% hard hit rate is the highest. You have to wonder if this is it for him.
The reason he’s been so bad is that his famous sinker is getting hit, and hit very hard. Hitters have a .629 slugging % and .469 wOBA against it. The Brewers have a handful of guys that have been successful against sinkers this year. It starts with Eduardo Escobar ($5.9k). Escobar has a .611 slugging % and .424 wOBA against sinkers this year and he’ll be a focal point to my Brewers stack.
Other guys that hit the sinker well are Omar Narvaez ($4.6k), Willy Adames ($5.6k), and Avisail Garcia ($4.6k). All have wOBA’s greater than .400 against sinkers this year. The wind is expected to be blowing out tonight and it sets up well for the Brewers to put up a large number.
I’m not as worried about the wind tonight with the Cubs in this match up because a.) they’re striking out 37% of the time and b.) Burnes keeps the ball on the ground when he’s not striking out hitters.
If I told you that the Baltimore Orioles had the fourth highest wRC+, the third highest OPS, and the second highest ISO against lefties would you believe me? The Orioles are two very different teams against righties and lefties. Against righties they are awful but against lefties they are one of the best.
Tonight they are simply underpriced against Skubal. Skubal’s K rate has come back down to earth after a very impressive mid season. Over the past 30 days it’s only 18.6% and he’s back to giving up the long ball with 6 in his last 21 innings of work. Skubal’s splits are very clear. He overpowers lefties, but gets overpowered by righties as they have a .258 ISO.
The Orioles should have 8 righties in the lineup and this sets up extremely well for them. Outside of Trey Mancini ($4.3k), the heart of this lineup is under $3k and will give us the flexibility to use the expensive Brewers bats. My focus on the Orioles outside of Mancini will be Austin Hays ($2.5k) who has a .255 ISO and .372 wOBA against lefties this year. He is essentially a “free square” tonight.
Anthony Santander ($2.3k) is also nearly min priced and is also someone I’ll want to help fit in bigger pieces. It’s supposed to be near 90 degrees at first pitch and the ball will have extra giddy up in Camden tonight.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
Tonight is a night we can absolutely go down the path of double aces. All of Gausman, Wainwright, and Burnes are in play. I’ll be focusing my bats around the Brewers with a juicy match up vs. Arietta and the criminally underpriced Baltimore Orioles.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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