Adam Strangis 
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday 8.5
Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: 8.5! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian today.
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitcher Breakdown:
Cheaper Pitchers
I hope everyone is going to get excited to play someone named Randy Dobnak($7.2) for MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: 8.5. Aside from having some fantastic facial hair in his headshot, he’s one of the few cheap pitchers that remotely interests me. Dobnak has thrown nine inning so far this year and has only allowed one run while striking out seven. That’s not special for the K’s, but the matchup can’t be denied.
Simply put, my Pittsburgh Pirates are the worst offense in baseball. They’re dead last in average, OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ vs RHP. They also strike out at a 27.9% clip, fourth-worst in baseball. That’s a stark contrast to last year where they were a tough offense to strike out. If Brian was missing today because he was going to pitch for the Twins, I would plug him into my lineups without hesitation. I’m continuing to go after Pittsburgh relentlessly.
Quick side note – If you want a crazy punt you could look at TeJay Antone($4.0). The 26 year-old righty had 16 DK points in his debut and gets an Indians offense that has drastically underperformed early on. They are the Pirates of the AL right now. The difference is they have the talent to break out any second. Antone is not a big K pitcher judging on MiLB numbers (about 21%) but he’s kept the ball on the ground over 50% of the time. At $4,000, you don’t need much and I’ll have a lineup or two with him.
High-Priced Pitchers
Now, where do we spend up? That’s an interesting question. Some may turn to Yu Darvish($10.4) against the Royals but I’m going to Mike Clevinger($9.2). I don’t penalize pitchers for having rough outings against good offenses like Minnesota but DraftKings did. They dropped his price and I’ll take the small discount. It does have to be pointed out that Clevinger’s strikeouts are down through the first two starts. He was at 33.9% last season but sits at just 24.4% this year.
His velocity really isn’t that different than it was last year but one main difference is his curveball early on. Last year, it gave up a .271 average and .136 ISO. With 35 thrown this year, the ISO is down but the bating average is .364. That’s coming with an .800 BABIP(!!) which is insane. This is a long-winded way of saying that curve isn’t going to keep getting hit and it’s generated six strikeouts. Better days are ahead, possibly starting tonight.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks:
Coors Field
The elephant in the room for MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: 8.5 is Coors Field. It can get repetitive, but the Rockies are going to be popular and it’s hard to craft an argument against that. Logan Webb starts for the Giants tonight. He’s a 23 year-old righty making his first start at Coors and he could face an uphill battle. In 27.1 innings on the road in his career, he has a 5.60 ERA to go along with giving up a .358 wOBA and a 1.32 HR/9. I reiterate the small sample, but RHH have smacked him on the road thus far. They’ve racked up a .315 average, .994 OPS, .411 wOBA and a 2.19 HR/9. Webb is in trouble.
The stack of Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story and Matt Kemp is a good place to start here. Kemp is still very cheap for Coors and I don’t need to go on and on about Nado and Story. Cheaper options include Chris Owings and maybe Garrett Hampson if he makes the lineup.
Secondary Stack
We need to get a little creative and cheap with another stack if we’re going for the Rockies and the Minnesota Twins step into the spotlight next. Pirates starter Trevor Williams has always had issues with LHH with a career 5.20 xFIP and .331 wOBA given up. The K/9 to LHH is under 6.00 so I’m very interested in Twins LHH. The great news is they fit really nicely with the three main Rockies.
Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler and Luis Arraez take up the last two outfield spots and second base, meshing well with Colorado. Alex Avila would be the perfect example of a cheap catcher to do a wrap around stack if he happens to play. His last start was Friday so there’s a solid chance of that.
Since Brian is off, I guess I have to pick up the slack for the narrative play. I usually tease him about this, but Albert Pujols is one home run away from tying Willie Mays for fifth on the all-time list. It also just so happens he fits in beautifully as a one-off with Rockies/Twins. He’s far from what he used to be but did still have a .340 wOBA and .255 ISO vs LHP last season.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots 8.5: The Wrap Up
Tuesday is a really interesting day in MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: 8.5! There’s a lot of routes to take in GPP and it depends on where you head for pitching. I think the cash route is Dobnak and your choice of high end, but in GPP you can run Dobnak and Antone. That’s going to leave you a ton of room to get whatever bats you want. I really love the idea of using the Rockies and Twins, especially since it affords me at least one quality arm in Clevinger.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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