Adam Strangis MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday 8.19
Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday 8.19! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:
I’m still kicking myself for never truly considering Kenta Maeda yesterday and locking in on Carlos Carrasco. They were basically the same price and I’ve been routinely picking on the Brewers, but I digress. We have a really packed pitching slate with some aces and some big names tonight. Some of those names have a reputation not matching their performance.
SP1
We have to start up top with Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole. This isn’t keeping with the spirit of Brian’s Picks and Pivots, but my initial lean is Cole pretty quickly here. He’s $800 cheaper and that’s not an insignificant amount. Let’s see what the numbers say.
Cole has seen his K rate dip from last year (insert Astros cheating joke here) but it’s still at 30.4%. He’s hit eight and 10 in his last two starts through 11.2 IP. The only pick at Cole in my eyes is the Rays are projected to have six LHH in their lineup tonight. That side of the plate has been an issue through 51 hitters so far, racking up a .331 wOBA. I tend to think that’s a small sample kind of number. The 63.6% fly ball rate and 45.5% hard contact are still scary for Yankee Stadium.
For deGrom, he just faced this Marlins team and only scored 17.9 DK points which is disaster at his salary. Much like Cole, he’s had a couple starts that have been great for strikeouts. He’s also had a couple that have been sub-par. The K rate is about 32% and deGrom has been giving up production to RHH so far. They have a .323 wOBA, 56.5% hard contact rate and a 1.84 HR/9. It’s a bit odd to see both pitchers with some potential weaknesses in their game. My initial lean was Cole and I still may just go with him. The 2020 numbers suggest deGrom could be the better fit if the Marlins have fewer RHH in their lineup.
SP2
With an expensive SP1, my usual goal is to get a cheaper SP2. I can see one that fits the bill very nicely. Pablo Lopez has been delivering on some of his promise so far in 2020. He’s rocking a 2.25 ERA and a 28.4% K rate. I do have a slight concern with the Mets being the second-best changeup team in the league. Still Lopez has such an evil one it doesn’t scare me too much. Additionally, Lopez has been better to LHH with a .212 average, .223 wOBA and still having a 20.6% K rate. $7,200 is awfully cheap and game log watchers might be scared off by his 9.9 DK vs the Mets once already this year. I’m paying more attention to his two 25+ DK games in his other starts.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:
We’ll need some cheaper offensive pieces and the first stop for me is the Nationals lefty hitters. It should be a little difficult to fit in a Juan Soto if paying up for pitching but we can still use this offense but DK continues to make a pricing error. Braves starter Kyle Wright is getting smacked this year and LHH have a .470 wOBA, .367 average and a -10% K-BB% ratio. Yeesh. We can use Soto, Adam Eaton, Asdrubal Cabrera and the still massively underpriced Luis Garcia. Fitting Soto isn’t even that hard with Garcia.
Here’s where we can get a little nuts. If you add Victor Robles to the Nationals stack and punt catcher, you can play a five man Nationals stack with Cole and Lopez as your pitchers. That leaves you open 3B and SS…with just enough money left over to play Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story vs a LHP in Coors Field. Neither hitter is over $5,7000 and I don’t think we need to go into too much detail of what they do in Coors to LHP. It’s really crazy you can fit in Cole, Soto, Arenado and Story all into the same lineup and that has some crazy high potential.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Man this is a fun slate. Yesterday I almost felt handcuffed due to lack of appealing options at pitcher. I felt most of my builds had their hands tied, but today is the opposite. The possibilities seem endless but for the most part, my focus is and ace paired with Lopez for pitching. I want some Coors pieces to go along with my main stack of the Nationals, because you just shouldn’t be able to jam in all these players. Take full advantage of some of these pricing errors.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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