Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers
Today’s MLB DFS action is quite choppy with a small early slate, followed by a 6 PM EST Turbo slate before we finally get to the 9 game Main at 7 PM EST.
The pitching on this slate, no matter how much I stare at it – I kind of hate it.
There are “name” options – including Walker Buehler, Mike Clevinger and Andrew Heaney up top and as he always does, my man Adam Strangis did a great job of breaking them down in today’s Starting Rotation.
If you want to play it safe, I think these are the clear three top arms in terms of talent but what I keep coming back to as I look at my first builds with them – is do I really need them?
Buehler remains priced up while being nursed back on a pitch count and Mike Clevinger will likely be a popular option due to his name and the recency bias after seeing what Dinelson Lamet did against the Rockies last night. Heaney feels like the best PP/$ play against a weak Texas lineup and his two recent starts will likely keep the game log crowd inflating his ownership.
So this is a GPP focused column – and telling you to play it safe, well, it is boring. So – let’s get a little crazy today shall we?
I will start off easy with a player we have pushed in this spot before and that is Sixto Sanchez ($6.1K). Sanchez has shown elite K ability through the minors and he flashed that immediately coming to the big leagues with a 27% K rate and 14% swinging strike rate thus far.
The Braves line-up is dangerous, no doubt, but they also have a 25% K rate against RHP this season if we look at their projected lineup and this becomes a decision of stuff versus match-up. Sanchez has gone 7 innings in each of his last two starts against boom/bust lineups like Toronto and Tampa Bay and he struck out 15 over those two outings. The risk is real – so is the upside.
The next name is a newcomer to Picks and Picks – Ljay Newscome ($6.1K) who will get the start against the SF Giants.
Newsome has made just one other start in 2020 and did well, with 4 innings of 1 run ball against the Padres but let’s not simply game log watch – Newsome is a legit K prospect, in fact he led the the MILB in strikeouts at high A ball so the talent is there.
Additionally, this is an arm that simply does not walk people – with a minimal 2-3% walk rate in the minors and that combined with the strikeout ability makes me very very interested.
Now his opponent today, the Giants, are not your Buster Posey era Giants – they actually have scored the 5th most runs in baseball this season but that comes with a higher K rate, as the projected lineup has a 21% K rate this season against RHP.
Much like Sixto – there is risk here, but we have an arm that has shown K upside throughout the minor league levels and you could argue, he gets one of the best ballparks to pitch in tonight in San Fran.
On a night where I don’t feel like I need to pay up – why not pay down – all the way down – and take some risks with talent.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks
Now going with cheap arms opens up essentially any and everything you could want for bats and while we do not have Coors on the slate – we have the next best thing – the Dodgers/White Sox.
The Dodgers get to face off with Luke Weaver, a pitcher who is giving up a tidy little .314 ISO to LHB this season and a near 50% HC rate to hitters from both sides of the plate.
The projected Dodgers lineup has a near .300 ISO mark against RHP this season with a 46% HC rate and just a 13% soft contact rate. Weaver’s inability to miss bats in Chase Field ( we will need to see if the roof is open) could mean a huge outing for the Dodgers bats.
The White Sox meanwhile, will take on Joe Musgrove who is struggling with .270 ISO marks to hitters from both sides of the plate.
Now the one tricky part when attacking Musgrove is that he is a high ground ball arm so you can to attack him with fly ball hitters and avoid the high ground ball hitters. What is interesting about the White Sox is that only two players have higher FB than GB rates against RHB since 2019 – E5 and Luis Robert.
We saw this last night with Kyle Freeland against the Padres – as he generated over 2x as many ground ball outs and was able to shut down the chalk stack on the board. So while the White Sox are always in play – just keep in mind that they are going against a high GB pitcher in Musgrove.
So to me, the Dodgers become the prime stack on this slate – one that may see lower than deserved ownership with the trendy White Sox available and what I expect, will be roster builds that pay up for pitching.
The White Sox then to me become more a secondary stack but one that has obvious high upside and helps correlate well with the Dodgers as you can use pieces where the Dodgers stack is weaker (ie. catcher with Grandal).
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
This slate is going to be more of a “take your shot” kind of slate for me – I do not see a chalky path worth eating quite frankly, so I am more than willing to take calculated risks with cheap arms that have K upside and try and catch the field then with the best bats on the slate.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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