Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers
Looking back at last night’s MLB DFS slate, the arms ruled the day as both Jacob deGrom and Luis Castillo put up 30+ DK points and were the staples of winning GPP lineups.
Today’s slate from a pitching perspective could not be more different from Monday as we go from a concentrated high dollar player pool (deGOAT, Castillo and Woodruff) to an 11 game slate where frankly, there is not a single-arm I feel is a must-own.
Any time the opportunity cost at pitcher feels this low, I am more willing to take risks on punt arms than overpay for the “safety” of overpriced arms like Zach Davies at $9.9K against the Angels.
Framber Valdez is the clear top arm on this slate – and Adam did a great job of breaking down why in Starting Rotation today. It is simple – if we have the money – he’s the one spot to spend up on this slate.
Seth Lugo ($7.4K) hurt us his last start out in a start where he simply did not have it – that was honestly it – you could see it from the start he was laboring and lacked feel and the Phillies made him pay. There is no word of injury and there is nothing in the underlying metrics that tell me his 30% + K rate and near 15% swinging strike rate are at risk – so for this price point, the upside remains significant.
The Rays do have a whole lot of lefties, which is where Lugo can get hurt, but they also have a 25.2% K rate against RHP so I have no issue going right back to this spot if folks are willing to jump off.
Philly was uber patient in that game, swinging at just 11% of pitches outside the zone and with only a 5% swinging-strike rate and interestingly enough, the Phillies had a well over 50% FB rate on their batted balls which is the complete opposite of Lugo’s normal ground ball profile. Nothing in that game data suggests anything more than a single game anomaly and I think we can go back to Lugo in GPP’s with high K confidence.
Keegan Akin ($6.3K) is another punt arm with K upside as his 31% K rate and 14% SS rate show here in 2020 and his minor league numbers would support that K ability throughout each stop on his way to the bigs.
The game logs make it easy to see the ceiling Akin can have – with a 9K 31 DK point outing against the Braves and a an 8K 24 DK point outing against the Yankees. The pitch counts have ticked up over 90 in both those starts and really what stands out to me is the ONE walk against Atlanta. For a pitcher who has sported a double digit walk rate at every level, if he can cut down on the free passes – he is simply priced too low.
This Boston line-up has just a 20% K rate against LHP in 2020 but they also have only an 8% walk rate and a .183 ISO mark, so there is merit to the argument that is Akin can have success against lineups like NY and Atlanta, why can’t he have similar success here?
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks
While we do not have a Coors game or any crazy high IRT’s on this slate, that does not mean we do not have some offenses capable of crooked numbers and if we intend to pay down at pitcher – well, it becomes – which big offense would you like to play today?
The Minnesota Twins jumped out at first glance against LHP Tyler Skubal, who is giving up a .268 ISO to RHB this season with a 50% FB rate and faced a Twins lineup that is loaded with lefty mashers.
Assuming Nelson Cruz is back in the lineup after sitting on Sunday, this top four of Sano-Donaldson-Cruz-Garver is just loaded with power as this foursome is sporting well over a .300+ ISO mark against LHP since 2019 with over 50% hard contact. Not only can you attack these splits but after Skubal you get a Tigers bullpen that ranks among the worst in baseball – the Twins to me are the kind of stack that if they get to Skubal early, could drop a double-digit run night as they hammer the Tigers pen.
The Astros let me down last night but tonight against Ljay Newsome, I think we could finally see the stars align as Newsome has really surrendered some serious power in 2020 – with .350+ ISO marks to hitters from both sides of the plate.
Newsome relies nearly 50% of the time on his curve to RHB and that is a pitch type that both George Springer and Carlos Correa hammer with .225+ ISO marks and 40% HC rates. Oh by the way – it is Correa’s birthday today so I am going to call a birthday bomb. Thank me later.
Kyle Tuckerhas a team high .287 ISO mark against RHP this season and his .261 ISO against the change is the single best mark on Houston for a pitch that Newsome uses as his primary offspeed offering to lefties.
I mentioned this yesterday but the Mariners pen is the 2nd worst in baseball in terms of xFIP over the last 30 days and over the last 14 days, they rank 6th (right in front of Detroit at 7) with 5+ xFIP marks. Much like I argued with Minnesota, if Houston can get on Newsome early you can go after a bad bullpen and that is when stacks really start to hit their ceiling.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Today for me is all about the bats and stacks and working my way backwards to find my arms. I will also be keen to watch how ownership plays out – while I like Lugo and Akin as examples – if they become chalky options then I think we have to find ways to pivot.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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