Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers
Not only do we have a 12 game MLB DFS slate on tap for Tuesday, but we have some serious decision points to make right off the bat in our lineup construction because the roster paths are going to diverge quickly depening on what you prioritizie.
Yu Darvish is the cream of the crop and the obvious SP1 play with the elite K metrics to support the over $11K price tag on DK. The 33.6% K rate and 15% SS rate make him a ceiling play every time he takes the mound and I would argue if you are going to pay up for arms, he is the one guy you need to make room for.
The flip side today is we have offenses – ALOT of offenses – with 5+ IRT’s and the decision to pay down at pitcher may pay some serious dividends.
Deivi Garcia ($6.8K) is the absolute perfect example of a cheap GPP arm I want for MLB DFS as he has the strikeout upside relative to his price that offsets the risk of paying down this far. Garcia has struck out 6 batters in each of his first 3 starts in 2020 against the Mets, Orioles and the same Toronto team he faces tonight and if you look at his minor league profile, this K stuff has played at all levels.
In fact, Garcia was sporting a 40%+ K rate through his time in AA with his biggest issue being a double-digit walk rate at each stop. Interestingly enough, Garcia has managed a 18:2 KBB ratio through his first three turns through the rotation and if that swing and miss stuff is now met with added control – there is simply no reason for him to be priced this cheap.
Jose Urquidy ($6.6K) could be over-looked today as I expect Garcia to be the popular pay down while the 2020 metrics leave folks off the Astros right-hander. If you simply look at this season, with a 7% K rate and a 15% walk rate over 2 starts, you will likely keep scrolling in your builds but the track record for Urquidy does not support these metrics as sustainable and the match-up is far better today against the K heavy Rangers.
Last year in 7 starts, Urquidy had a 24% K rate at the MLB level and that is after sporting a 30% K rate at both AA and AAA while never having a walk rate above 5.5%. So can we say these last two starts have been a statistical anomolay?
The Rangers projected lineup has a 26.2% K rate against RHP since 2019 and with 6-7 lefties in the lineup, it sets up for Urquidy to have a bounce back game as his K rate is 7% higher (25%) against lefties than righties over the last two seasons.
If you were with me last week, you know I loved me some Ljay Newsome ($6.3K) against the Giants and felt great about him at 1% ownership as he struck out 2 of his first 4 batters before a line drive off the hand forced him out (then I did not feel as great).
Newsome led all of high A Ball in strikeouts and has the pedigree we are looking for in a punt arm against a Giants line-up with a 23% K rate against RHP this season. He ranks third for me tonight because I think Garcia has the better pedigree and Urquidy has the better match-up – but I am totally fine rocking two of these in my DK lineups tonight and getting ALL THE BATS.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks
I love slates where we have so much offense that the ownership gets spread out – especially when it is a Coors Field slate and the first game of a series where folks may talk themselves into the fade of the best hitting environment on the slate.
With temperatures becoming very Fall-like on the East Coast, the fact we can attack 80+ degrees and sunny skies in Coors Field becomes very appealing.
Oakland has the top IRT on the slate over 6 runs, and it is hard to argue with the spot against Antonio Senzatela and his 15% K rate and 9% SS rate. Typically pitch to contact arms in Coors Field, fare poorly – especially when they have a .200 ISO mark to LHB and face an Oakland lineup that will have 5+ here tonight.
On the other side of this game, we get a lefty in Coors Field with Sean Manaea. Lefties in Coors mean – Arenado & Story – rinse and repeat.
These two teams correlate exceptionally well on DraftKings as you can mix and match positions easily AND you get the added benefit of some value bats with some true cheapies like Jake Lamb or Elias Diaz in the mid $2K range that help you open up any path you want.
The key here today is to watch the lineups as big bats like Arenado and Piscotty have injury tags and recent missed games which could throw your first look builds into a bit of disarray. Arenado is the bat we will really need to watch because with Matt Chapman also hurt – it would mean we don’t have a logical pivot in a game stack at 3B.
If Piscotty were to miss, you have a ton of options frankly with bats like Canha, Grossman and Laureano all right there to pivot too while we cannot forget about Charlie Blackmon and his .257 ISO mark despite the L/L match-up.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
We have a ton of offenses to choose from and with Yu Darvish on the slate, it may mean that the high priced bats become a luxury that some DFS players cannot afford.
I think there are multiple punt arms with ceiling potential that make a dual punt build a possibility and we can one stop shop in Coors Field for all the offense we want!
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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