Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Pitching Breakdown
We have a four game MLB DFS slate on tap here with Game 2 of the ALDS contests we had on Monday and the first two games of the Marlins/Braves and Dodgers/Padres which will be played in Houston and Texas ballparks.
In what we assumed would be a pitching heavy 2 game slate on Monday, it became a home run barrage with 6 HR’s in the A’s/Astros game and another 5 HR’s in the Yankees/Rays game which sent DFS scores soaring.
Now I am not sure we can expect this kind of trajectory in the offenses for the Division Round but it is worth noting these games are being played in warm/humid conditions in California and Texas so there may be merit to leaning offenses in these hitter friendly conditions.
Conversely, it also makes finding two arms on DK really tough today – like REALLY tough – and while I try to find reasons off it – I simply thin taking the two top-priced arms in Tyler Glasnow and Framber Valdez may be the best path on this slate.
Glasnow is the clear top dog in terms of K ability with a 37.6% K rate and 14% SS rate and has shown ceiling against this Yankees lineup with 8/9 K’s in his last two starts with 24 and 22 DK points. The risk – is well – what we say yesterday, as this Yankees lineup is capable of hammering any arm but I think today we have to take the path with the one high K arm, even if it means absorbing the risk of a few long balls from the Bombers.
Valdez has been the model of consistency for the Astros here with 20+ DK points in 8 of his last 10 starts and really stepped his game up the last month with a 27% K rate and massive 63% GB rate in the last 30 days of action.
The opposing A’s lineup has a putrid .118 ISO mark against LHP this season ans as a team, their 24.2% K rate against lefties this season ranked 8th highest in baseball.
The rest of the options – frankly, inspire little confidence as pivots.
Walker Buehler has a blister issue and a short leash against a potent Padres lineup. Max Fried could end up being chalky as people simply take “pitcher against the Marlins” but this Miami lineup has just a 16% K rate against LHP this season. Sean Manaea is in a similar boat as this Astros lineup strikes out at just an 18% clip against LHP and so what are we left with? Sandy Alcantara against the Braves powerful lineup, the rookie Deivi Garcia against the Rays and either Clevinger/Paddack against the Dodgers?
To me – I think we try and avoid getting too cute today at pitcher – use the best two options in Glasnow/Framber and hope the bevy of other options spreads ownership out enough where we get leverage.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks
While we do not yet have confirmation on Paddack/Clevinger – I think we have to go into this slate with the idea that the Los Angeles Dodgers stack against a patched together Padres rotation/pen in Arlington is ripe for a massive outing.
If it is Paddack, then I think it becomes a 5 man assault of Dodgers bats as the right-hander has given up .256 ISO to LHB and a .272 ISO to RHB and this LA lineup has a .263 ISO mark as a team against RHP this season.
Giddy up.
So go ahead and lock in Mookie, Seager, Turner Muncy and Belly – and use your catcher spot on Will Smith to capture upside at a weak position. Smith could be a slate breaker here tonight as his .333 ISO against RHP, 51% HC rate and team-leading 96MPH EV and 362-foot average traveled distance on balls in play could give you the kind of upside in the heart of a Dodger stack that sets you apart from those who opt to pay down at Catcher.
Now stacking up the Dodgers AND paying up for pitching requires value – and well, it is #FreeSquare season here on DK today.
Welcome to the party $2.1K Chad Pinder with 2B/3B eligibility batting 5th with a .189 ISO mark against lefties since 2019.
I see you $2.1K Lewis Brinson with a .220 ISO against LHP in 2020.
Even if you end up using Framber or Fried – I would argue one or both of these plays is viable as a one off salary saver and I think you should take advantage of the paths they open up in your roster construction.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Going into this slate my core is Glasnow and the Dodgers stack – and depending on how the value breaks, it will determine if I can get to Framber as an SP2 or if I have to make tough choices elsewhere.
Do not be afraid to take stands today – especially if we start to see chalk – because I am not sure there is a “must have spot” on this slate worth demanding chalk.
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
