Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we get a solid slate on DraftKings with 10 games to sort through for our MLB DFS picks with a start time of 7:05 PM EST.
Looking back at Monday’s slate, we had some interesting takeaways in the winning lineups. First and foremost, pitching was a survive and advance kind of evening as no pitcher scored more than 25 fantasy points but the combination of Tyler Glasnow (23) and Adrian Houser (15) was the key duo in the winning GPP builds.
The Houser play ended up being the perfect pivot off Josh James who was a whopping 60% owned in GPP’s and ended the night with just 5 fantasy points, so moving to Houser in the same price range at a third of the ownership, giving you three times the fantasy production.
It then came down to the bats and the winning builds had a common stacking strategy with a Royals/Rays two team stacking strategy that combined two offenses that drove in 28 total runs. Always stack…always!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitcher Breakdown:
Well if you thought Monday’s pitching slate was ugly, buckle up buttercup because this one is a humdinger.
There is only one pitcher on the slate with a K rate over 27% and that happens to be Walker Buehler ($11.3K) against the Astros. Not only is the match-up against the Houston Astros bad, but the real issue is also that Buehler is expected to be on a pitch count after only working two innings in his final outing of Spring Training 2.0. Dave Roberts has come out and said it may take three trips through the rotation before Buehler is fully stretched out, so paying a premium for a tune-up against the Astros offense feels like a bad idea.
Now the counter to that argument – Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow last night was the best arm on the slate (not saying much), pitching just 4 innings and striking out 9 Braves batters so there is a path to a ceiling spot with the lone elite K arm we have at our disposal.
Also, it is Walker Buehler’s birthday today – so basically you are required by narrative law to consider him.
Rather than pay up for underwhelming options like Merrill Kelly, Kyle Gibson or gulp Homer Bailey, I am going to skip over that tier entirely and try and find some value arms that allow me to get the big bats that will likely determine this slate.
Rather than focus on the pitcher per se, let’s find the offenses we want to go after – ones that have struggled thus far in 2020.
Through the first weekend of the season, the Colorado Rockies have struggled mightily on the road, with just 8 runs scored, a 28% K rate and a .095 ISO. We saw the two Rangers starters who faced them this past weekend both have ceiling type games with Lance Lynn (6 IP and 9 K’s) and Mike Minor (5 IP and 6K’s) and now tonight they head to Oakland and their vast pitcher-friendly ballpark.
Now Daniel Mengden ($7.4k) is not a name I expected to be typing up just a handful of days into the MLB season unless I just wanted to talk about his perfectly coiffed mustache, but with the limited options on this slate, he is going to be in our player pool.
Mengden is a sub 20% K arm with a single-digit swinging-strike rate, but we have seen ceiling games from him as recently as last year. In 9 starts last year, Mengden went for 20+ DraftKings points in 3 of them and out up 9+ in 7 of the 9 outings.
Go back to 2018 and you see a similar pattern, in 17 games started he eclipsed 13 DK points 10 times and went over 20 DK points in 4 of those outings.
Now shooting for “double-digit” points as our baseline may seem like a defeatist attitude, but look again at last night’s slate where 15 fantasy points from Adrian Houser was a massive win and frankly, take the same approach.
Mengden is one of the largest favorites on the board (-168) and the Rockies have one of the lowest IRT on the slate at 4.2 to open. Mengden has also historically been much better at home, pitching to an ERA and xFIP nearly a run lower, while seeing his K rate tick up 3-4% higher than his marks on the road.
If the Rockies continue to struggle as they have to open the year, this could be a great run prevention spot for Mengden who with a double-digit baseline and the upside for 20+ DK points, makes for a nice mid-range play to get us all the bats we want.
Patrick Sandoval ($6.6K) is an intriguing arm on this slate and his K metrics may end up making him one of the more popular options on this slate as a result. Sandoval’s 13.5% swinging-strike rate is the best mark of any arm on this slate and his 24.9% K rate actually ranks among the top arms today.
Now add in the fact he is a massive favorite (-183) taking on a Mariners team with the lowest IRT as of this writing (3.8) and their high opposing K rate of 26.2% and you start to see one of the few upside options that exist on this slate.
The projected Mariners line-up today has a 25.2% K rate against LHP the last two seasons and with 6 RHB in the projected line-up, it lines up well with Sandovals 27% K rate to right-handed bats.
The nice part about living in this $7K range for arms is you are able to stack up two premier stacks and as we saw last night – on nights without aces, bats are going to win you the slate.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks:
Looking at the bats on this slate, while we do not yet have all the Vegas data, we already have four times with 5+ IRT including the A’s, Brewers, Angels and Twins.
The Angels become a very appealing stack for the sole reason they are expected to welcome back (or for the first time), Anthony Rendon into their line-up. With lefty Justus Sheffield on the hill, the addition of Rendon in between Mike Trout and Justin Upton makes this a lethal right-handed heavy core that could make Sheffield’s day a quick one.
Against LHP last season, Rendon (.301 ISO) and Trout (.291 ISO) absolutely hammered left-handed pitching and well Upton’s ISO is not at those elite levels, he actually had the highest HC rate (48%) and farthest air distance (316 feet) of any RHB on the Angels.
Sheffield generated nearly 60% GB’s against RHB last season but again this is where the Angels trio has the batted ball advantage, as all three hitters have FB rates 10-15% higher against LHP so they work counter to what Sheffield prefers. There is a reason LAA has a 5.3 IRT here tonight with Rendon back and the righty stack is a great way to chase upside!
One of the best offenses in baseball last season has come out of the gates showing once again how powerful they can be as the Minnesota Twins have put up 27 runs in their first three games with 10 and 14 runs in two of those.
Tonight they take on Carlos Martinez and the Cardinals, who is coming back to the rotation after serving as the Cards closer last season. Now Martinez is not an arm the metrics would say we need to stack against, but much like we talked about with Mengden at pitcher – this is far more about choosing the opponent.
The Twins offense is lethal – up and down – and maybe other than the Dodgers, there may not be a better line-up in baseball. The projected lineup tonight, had a .244 ISO last season against RHP with a massive 45% HC rate and the 5.4 IRT this evening is something we will likely see day in and day out as the season progresses.
What I love about the Twins from a stacking perspective is how they work alongside an Angels stack tonight as you can capture high-upside at weak positions like Catcher with Mitch Garver or SS with Jorge Polanco and that kind of correlation between stacks allows you to maximize your output.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap Up
Tonight’s slate is very much like Monday’s although with arguably worse pitching. We have 10 games on the slate but there is some rain risk in Boston between the Mets and Red Sox.
One thing to keep an eye on tonight will be ownership, especially at pitcher. We saw it yesterday where Josh James became the de-facto arm to lock-in and with it came massive ownership and a leverage situation. Will we have another arm like that tonight?
At first glance, the offenses seem like we have enough where none will be chalk so the pivots as you go through the day will likely be at pitcher. I will be in Discord all day talking about this slate and am ready to take down some big money tonight!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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