Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Tuesday, July 27th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Main Slate Breakdown – Pitching
Welcome into a full 15 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate where once again we have a slate without obvious pitching options – seriously, where did all the aces go?
It seems like every night, the pitching options at best get you “solid games” – maybe 20-25 DK points but we are far removed from seeing aces routinely drop 30+ DK point ceiling games that can help set a cash line foundation.
However, tonight does afford us the ability to pay up for elite K arms in strong recent form with both Lance McCullers Jr. and Robbie Ray who are over $10K on DraftKings and ranks 2nd and 3rd respectively in K rate over the last 30 days behind only Gerrit Cole.
McCullers ($10.4K) also ranks 2nd in MLB during the last 30 days in CSW rate at 33.6%, ranks 3rd in GB rate at 56%, and gets the best match-up of these high-end arms against Seattle who is 2nd in baseball the last month with a 26.6% K rate.
Five of the last eleven right-handed arms to face the Mariners since the start of July have gone for 20+ DK points and while Luis Garcia struggled last night, he still struck out 9 batters and we have actually seen other recent starters (Montas – 10) and Taillon (9) have similar K upside in this spot.
The last time Brad Keller ($5.9K) was on the mound, we featured him here in Picks and Pivots against the Brewers because we noticed a massive shift in his pitch mix, with a new found reliance on his slider. Prior to his July starts, Keller had thrown the slider just 31% but has thrown it just under 50% of the time in his last three starts and it has coincided with his three best outings – 19.5, 20.2 and 28.5 DK points.
The price moved up to $6.9K last start in which Keller went out and struck out 6 Brewers and yet today – after this recent run, his price actually dropped down to $5.9K on DraftKings – huh?
Keller ranks in the top 5 in baseball the last 30 days in ground ball rate, so he is not only getting swings and misses but he is driving tons of weak contact to both sides of the plate on top of it. Keller is using that slider to both sides of the plate but relying on it a little more against lefties which could work out nicely tonight against a White Sox team projected to have 5 LHB in the line-up.
The White Sox have one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 5.2 – which likely only serves to keep folks off Keller here and likely gives us another chance to use Keller as a high upside SP2 before people realize how he has reinvented himself.
Oh also – it is Brad Keller’s birthday today. Just sayin’.
Main Slate Overview – Hitting
The bats are plentiful once again and so we need to be very strategic in how and where we plant our flags with stacks and liket most night it will start with a Toronto Blue Jays line-up with a near 6 IRT in Fenway Park against Garret Richards.
We have talked at length about Richards being vocal opposition to the pitching rule changes and he has worked to re-invent himself on the fly post sticky stuff crackdown. Over the last 30 days however, we see reasons to continue to attack Richards who has a massive .306 ISO and 46% HC rate allowed to right-handed batters.
The Blue Jays – have a few good right-handed batters – FYI.
Against right-handed hitters, Richards is relying basically on a two pitch mix of fastball/slider that accounts for 70% of his offerings the last 30 days. The issue is, batters are hitting that fastball velocity at a .600 ISO and 47% HC rate and the slider is not much better at .375 ISO and 60% HC rate!
Against a 94+MPH fastball, well – the Jays right-handers all feast on it with George Springer jumping off the page with a .813 ISO and 46% HC rate but all of Vlad Jr., Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette and Teoscar Hernandez have .200+ ISO marks and 45% HC rates as well!
Against the slider, it is Springer/Vladdy once again at the top but you also see Lourdes Gurriel and Randal Grichuk pop with 300+ ISO marks against that pitch type.
Basically – this stack is the nuts again today like it seemingly is every day and guess what, using Keller at SP2 makes them incredibly easy to afford.
The other spot that jumps out to me today is the Cincinnati Reds left-handed batters against Adbert Alzolay in Wrigley Field. Over the last 30 days, the metrics for Alzolay against LHB are stunningly bad with a .500 ISO and 58% HC rate and no pitcher in baseball during that time has a higher HR/RB rate than the Cubs righty.
Alzolay is relying on a 3 pitch mix to lefties- fastbal, slider and sinker which accounts for 75% of his pitch arsenal against lefthanded batters and well, not a single one has lower than a .600 ISO mark with the fastball and sinker generating 75% and 88% hard contact rates. Remember when I said his mterics were stunningly bad? Yeah, this is what I meant.
The lefties are the priority – Jessie Winker, Tyler Naquin, Tucker Barnhart at Catcher and even Joey Votto who has homered in three straight games. It is hot, humid and the wind is blowing out at Wrigley – sorry Alzolay but you are in some serious trouble today!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
We have a massive 15 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate and once again the pitching options are going to force our hand a bit, however I think with a key SP2 option – we can navigate this slate with ease, allowing us to anchor to one high end arm and two high powered offensive stacks!
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
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