Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Tuesday, July 20th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Main Slate Breakdown
Welcome into a 13 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate where we once against have major rain concerns in Atlanta for the Braves/Padres and some additional rain risk in the Red Sox and Blue Jays game.
After last night’s wild MLB DFS slate, I do wonder how much recency bias plays into tonight and if folks opt to go back to many of the same spots hoping for a repeat of big-time hitting performances. I also found it interesting that yesterday, with the top-priced arms in tough spots most of the ownership settled in the next level down and I wonder if we see similar trends here this evening.
To me, I still think anchoring to elite K arms is the best route, despite the inconsistent returns and with elite K arms like Yu Darvish and Aaron Nola both under $10K, I love the price discount we are getting on them as SP1’s (understanding that Darvish may never pitch due to rain).
There is one low-end option I have my eye on though and that is Dodgers right-hander Josiah Gray ($4.7K), the Dodgers #2 prospect and a top 40 overall MLB prospect.
Gray has sported 30% K marks at all minor league levels and has a 38% K rate at AAA in his first 15 innings and while he may need more seasoning he will get his first taste of big-league action tonight serving as the long man after the Dodgers use an opener.
Now there is always risk in these non-traditional settings and even more so with a rookie arm, but this is a top K, high-pedigree prospect with a high 90’s rising heater and a nasty breaker he uses to play off it. For under $5K on DraftKings, he could pay massive dividends if you want to go dumpster diving here tonight.
If this high/low route is too risky – once again the $8K range is STRONG and I could see going far more balanced with this range as Adam outlined in Starting Rotation.
Tarik Skubal ($7.7K) gets the ideal spot with a lefty against the Rangers, a match-up we just targeted with Hyun Jin Ryu. In the last three starts, lefties have made against Texas, both Ryu and Robbie Ray dropped ceiling 30+ DK point match-ups and Skubal has the elevated K rate, seeing his strikeout rate rise to 34% in May and 31% in June that gives us elite K upside in a match-up that has paid off all season long.
The other arm I have my eye on in the mid-range is Shane McClanahan ($8.7K). It is funny how these prospects come up, we get hyped and then move on and for a first-rounder like the Rays lefty, all he has done is deliver – with a 28% K rate thus far.
Past the top 3 in the Baltimore lineup, the rest of this Orioles lineup has all hitters with 23% or higher K rates against lefties and we have seen since the beginning of June, 4 LHP have put up 20+ DK outings with Ryu (2x), Anthony Kay and Ryan Yarbrough. After Yarbrough failed as a popular option yesterday, we could even get an ownership discount here on a high K arm with elite pedigree.
Now to the bats!
If you look at the big IRT’s for the offenses today and you assume the Padres are rained out, all of a sudden it’s the Rockies in Coors Field and the same crew from yesterday that went nuts with the Red Sox, Mets, and Reds. Pure speculation but I think we see inflated ownership in those spots due to recency bias.
Moving off them could be a great way to make waves in GPP’s and the Philadelphia Phillies are the team that really stood out to me at first glance against Domingo German and the Yankees. German has given up serious hard contact this season with a .200 ISO and 43% hard contact rate and with the Phillies gaining the DH and playing in a hot Yankee Stadium, we could see the ball fly here.
The Phillies by and large are a cheap stack too – sure you have Hoskins and Harper as pricey plays but you also get cheap lefties to balance the stack with Didi Gregorious (back in Yankee Stadium) and Brad Miller ($2.6K) with 2B/OF dual position eligibility.
The other mini-stack I really like here is the Minnesota Twins against Dallas Keuchel. Now Keuchel is not an arm you typically stack against due to his high ground ball rate but this is also a pitcher with just a 12% K rate and 45% hard contact rate to right-handed batters and well – that is one thing the Twins offer at an elite level with Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson and Mitch Garver who is back and only $3.6K on DK.
If you look at Keuchel’s pitch type – he relies heavily on a change-up to RHB and all three hitters noted above have elite profiles against it, with Cruz sporting a team-high .408 ISO and 55% HC rate. The sinker becomes the next option and Garver has a monster .741 ISO, 68% HC rate and a 390+ foot average distance traveled.
To me, this is the ideal spot to go mini-stack HR hunting versus the all-in stack and when we look for correlation – they sit nicely alongside an all-in Phillies barrage today!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
Tonight’s slate has weather risks and I think we will see a ton of recency bias impact of MLB DFS picks across the industry which gives us the opportunity to pivot and make GPP waves.
The Phillies/Twins stack offers you power and balanced salary builds that will open up really any pitching path you want – either high/low or balanced. Keep an eye on ownership today and stay in Discord so we can update our thoughts as the day goes on!
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
