Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown
After a strong Monday Night MLB DFS Picks and Pivots that was built around the top strikeout arms and an Oakland A’s stack that saw our members hitting green by the end of the night – we are back with another super pitching rich slate here on Tuesday.
The top end of the slate is LOADED with three elite arms in Shane Bieber, Trevor Bauer, and Lucas Giolito and we have some interesting mid-range arms with high K ability in Luis Castillo, Brandon Woodruff and Kevin Gausman.
What I think this lends itself to is much of what we saw yesterday from an ownership perspective where folks went high/low with Glasnow/Peralta and opt to pick one from the high dollar spend and then use the strong mid-range for their SP2. I also think that at first glance, the bats on DraftKings are priced up a tick from yesterday which is even more reason why I think going balanced with arms will be popular so that people can afford the bats they covet.
With so many good arms on the slate – I think it will become obvious that the two worst arms are Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Gibson and it will push ownership in these high/low pitchers builds to include Dodgers and Rays stacks alongside them.
Because here is the thing – if everyone goes with a high/low arm strategy to afford the Rays or Dodgers stacks – can we find a way to go “double aces” and pair two of Bieber/Bauer/Giolito and still find an offense we like with the roughly $3.7K per batter we have left?
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Double Aces Strategy
I really believe we will have the opportunity to get absolute studs arms like Shane Bieber, Trevor Bauer and Lucas Giolito at ownership discounts tonight and I am here for it.
Bieber has been absolutely electric to start the season with a 45% K rate and 22% swinging strike rate and with 12 K’s in each of his first two starts, his $10.7K price tag may not be expensive enough.
Because he is the priority for me, I likely pair him with Bauer instead of his mound opponent in Giolito so I can chase the win bonus for both my arms. Listen Bauer has been absolutely phenomenal in his own right, with a 40% K rate and 10K’s in each of his first two starts – one in Coors and one in Oakland. Tonight he gets that same brutal Rockies offense but he gets them in LA and I think at $10.2K on DK – his upside is every bit that of Bieber’s due to the easier match-up.
Now here is where it gets fun – if you go double aces – what stack can you find at $3.6-$3.7K per batter to make it all work?
There is a game stack tonight that has the perfect blend of power, upside and salary balance that I think gives us this path to double aces and that is the Astros/Tigers.
The Astros have a 5.2 IRT as of this writing which trails only the Dodgers, as they will take in LHP Matthew Boyd – a talented lefty but one who has struggled with right-handed power to the tune of a .273 ISO and 40% hard contact rate since the start of last season.
The Astros present a brutal challenge in that they have a team ISO of .200 against LHP since the start of last season and have 5 hitters in the projected lineup with .215 or higher ISO marks as individuals.
Boyd faced a similar challenge with the Twins last time out and was superb, striking out 8 batters over 7 innings and allowing just 3 runs. The key here for the Astros is to get to Boyd and get to the Tigers bullpen which is dead last in the league with a 7+ ERA, allowing 32 runs in just 39 innings including a league-leading 12 HR’s. That my friends is where the stack for Houston is going to pay big-time dividends.
The Astros are pricey – especially if you want the core plays – but I think the way you get there is actually by game stacking this spot and using the cheap Tigers bats on the other side against RHP Jake Odorizzi.
The Tigers are a powerful offense, ranked 3rd in all of baseball with 14 HR’s, and against RHP they rank top 10 in all of baseball in team ISO. There is some sneaky power in this line-up and Odorizzi is a fly ball arm that has given up 40%+ HC rates to both sides of the plate since 2019 so I think the path is there to use Detroit to take down GPP’s.
We get some serious salary relief with guys like Nomar Mazara ($2.2K) hitting in the middle of the Tigers order and I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the Win Daily Discord Darling – Akil Baddoo ($3.8K) who “Dercerto” has been pimping all season long to our subs!
The Tigers are the road team – meaning we get guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats – and with this being Odorizzi’s first start of the year, the expectation is a short outing before giving way to the pen. As such, I would not focus as much on splits or attacking Odorizzi and instead of finding the mini-stack, you want to work around the big-time Houston bats.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
As an MLB DFS player there are certain slates where I play it straight and ignore ownership and others where I let ownership dictate my GPP thought process.
Today is a slate where I think we will see very chalky builds with one ace and one mid-range arm to afford a higher dollar stack. If that is the case as the day unfolds, I think finding a path to true double aces – taking two of the Bieber, Bauer, Giolito trio – while working with a cheap Astros/Tigers game stack could give you an ownership edge with clear power upside!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this MLB DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
