Adam Strangis MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Tuesday 8.11
Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Tuesday 8.11! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:
High End Part One
At least as of this morning, we have a 12 game slate and that hasn’t happened very often this season. Even with 12 games, there’s a whole lot of very average arms on this slate. The two biggest exceptions – Max Scherzer and Dylan Bundy.
Scherzer is coming off a start where he only pitched one inning due to injury. He says he’s good to go and I’ll trust him on that one. Being under $11,000 for Mad Max won’t happen a whole lot so he’s a little easier to fit than normal.
About the only nitpick you can make here is Scherzer has a K rate of 21.7% to LHH. The Mets do project to put five out there. I don’t find myself too worried about Brandon Nimmo, Dominic Smith and Andres Gimenez. I will point out that Michael Conforto is a great GPP one-off tonight. He has four home runs career off of Scherzer and is only $3,500. Batter vs Pitcher data isn’t typically a stat I use at all but Conforto is approaching 50 at-bats vs Scherzer.
High End Part Two
Bundy has lit the world on fire here in the early going. The K rate is 31/3%, the ERA is 2.08 and both the FIP and xFIP are under 2.85 and he’s only walked two hitters all season. The Oakland A’s do have a .319 wOBA vs RHP but on paper, this matchup sets up very favorably for Bundy.
The most dangerous hitters for Oakland are almost all RHH with the exception of Matt Olson. Additionally, Ramon Laureano, Matt Chapman, Mark Canha and Khris Davis all have K rates above 23.5% since the start of 2019 vs RHP. Bundy has face 35 RHH so far this season.The sample isn’t huge so be mindful. Still, he has held them to a .101 wOBA, .061 batting average and a 45.7% K rate. Still only 27 years old, this version of Bundy could mostly be here to stay.
Punt Pitcher
If you’re not liking the build of playing both Scherzer and Bundy (there’s a lot of good offenses today), the punt play pitcher might just be Marco Gonzales. He’s not the perfect fit but this is a GPP geared look at the slate, so we take calculated risks. The K rate isn’t super impressive for Gonzales at 22.4%. However, that would be a career high for him if he can maintain.
Five projected Rangers hitters have a K rate above 24.5% and Todd Frazier is at 20.4% himself. With Gonzales, the fly ball rate is always a concern. It’s at 48% through three starts but his xFIP is only 4.18, which is reasonable. The Rangers are currently 20th in fly ball rate vs LHP at 31.8% so this is a spot to go after a sub-$7,000 price.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:
I don’t believe it’s a stretch to say the Arizona Diamondbacks will be the most popular stack here tonight. Still in Coors Field, still badly miss-priced through the lineup and the industry has good vibes after they mashed yesterday. Considering six of the projected D-Backs have a wOBA over .330 and five have an ISO over .220, I would certainly have exposure if playing a few lineups.
Now it’s time for the Brian Tulloch Special and he’s probably going to be mad it took me so long to get there. It’s Jon Lester Day and that means we stack Indians. In the movie Mean Girls they wear pink on Wednesday’s and here at Pick and Pivots, we stack against Jon Lester every fifth day. The Cleveland Indians lineup is built to smack lefties around. Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Franmil Reyes, Domingo Santana AND Jordan Luplow all have wOBA’s over .330 vs LHP since 2019.
Lester is once again just one giant fraud through two starts. The ERA is 0.82 but the xFIP is a massive 5.63, his BABIP is .091 and his strand rate is 100%. Combine those numbers with a 47.1% fly ball rate and a puny 11.9% K rate and you have the encyclopedia definition of “regression is coming”. Stack away and hopefully Cleveland comes in very low-owned.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
On a 12 game slate, it’s easy to get overwhelmed and want to play approximately 3,275 hitters. Especially for GPP, you have to take a stand. Realize that every single player has the same amount of hitters and pitchers you do. Find the pitchers you want and build your stacks around them without fear of who you’re not playing. For me, it’s going to be a good mix of the three pitchers we talked about and then eating chalk with Arizona and catching Cleveland at much lower ownership.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
