Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Thursday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Main Slate Breakdown
Welcome into a 5 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate here on Thursday where, well let’s be honest – the slate is not overly exciting and DraftKings decided to scale back considerably on the contest selection with the NFL kicking off and the smaller baseball slate. I really hope this is not indicative of what DK will do going forward but history would tell us we will start to see MLB DFS contests scaled back especially on the weekends.
My advice to you as we head down the homestretch – if the contest selections are not good, scale back and/or take slates off. Never go full FOMO and play for the sake of playing – stay diligent in your bankroll management and keep grinding when the opportunity is right.
This 5 game slate starts at 6:40 PM EST and it is entirely front-loaded with every single game starting by 7:20 PM EST so we should have all the lineup news we need with plenty of time to spare before lock which is a nice added benefit of this slate (I am looking for silver linings people).
With it being a short slate, this is going to be one of those “strategy over best plays” deals I talk about in Picks and Pivots where we need to play against the field more than we would typically and account for ownership as we see it unfold.
With the Atlanta Braves sporting a 6+ IRT, my guess is we see a whole lot of ownership push to the expensive Braves bats and if that is the case, it may mean many similar build types due to salary constraints.
What that may mean is that the “high-priced arms” like Marcus Stroman and Jose Berrios become secondary priorities for people and my guess is most will go with one OR the other instead of both to jam in the big bats. However, I think with both arms sitting in the low $9K range, there is a path here to locking in the best floor/ceiling arms together on a short slate.
Marcus Stroman ($9.4K) will take the mound in Miami against the Marlins and while the Stro Show is not someone I typically look to pay top dollar for, I think his recent form and the Marlins recent trends set up ideally for a strong game from the Mets right-hander. Over the last month, Stroman has a 26.6% K rate and he gets to take on the most K heavy team on this slate with the Marlins who have struck out at the third-highest rate in all of baseball the last 14 days at 25.3% while also sporting the lowest ISO rate in baseball at just .116.
This is a high K spot for ceiling with considerable run prevention floor so paying up for Stroman here seems like the clear SP1 path. My only issue with Stroman, watching most of his starts as a Mets fan, is he is far more a pitch to contact guy and last game against the Nationals with the Mets up 9-0, he really struggled to put away hitters in a spot where he should have been going after them with such a big lead. If Stroman is insane chalk (think 75% or more) – I am fine playing the fade game and hoping for floor because as you will see in a moment – I think the Mets offense gives him a similar game script today where they get up big early.
Jose Berrios ($9.2K) is the fascinating play on this slate because his metrics would say he is perhaps the highest K ceiling arm but his recent boom/bust nature and a match-up in Da Bronx makes this the logical spot people move off of because of the inherent risk and desire to get more bats in their builds.
Over the last two games, we have seen the ceiling Berrios can deliver with 7 and 11K’s against the A’s and Tigers and there are a few underlying stats/metrics that make me believe he is turning the corner. First, his velocity has ticked up in each of his last two outings from season-low marks in August and that has coincided with increased use of his curveball – so more fastball velocity and leaning more on his highest K pitch – seems like a recipe for more strikeouts.
Berrios also saw a significant spike in his first pitch strikes – getting 75% of his pitches over for first-pitch strikes. There have only been two other games this season where Berrios got ahead at that rate – twice in July – and both games he had ceiling efforts with 8 and 10 K’s respectively.
This is not rocket science – get ahead in the count and use his curveball as his putaway pitch. Berrios to me has the kind of upside that I want to anchor to on a small slate and my hope is, people opt to pay down at SP2 tonight and leave Berrios under-owned.
The last arm I have interest in tonight as a pay-down option is Antonio Senzatela at $6.8K. Senzatela is a pitcher that MLB DFS players tend to pick on especially in Colorado and I never quite get why as he has significant ground ball metrics that suppress runs. Now the K metrics are not high by any means but they improve materially on the road and this is an arm that has put up double-digit DK outings in 8 of his 10 starts. If you are trying to jam in bats and are not sold on the Stroman/Berrios pay ups – Senzatela is my preferred SP2 play.
If the Braves and their 6+ IRT are the chalk then pivoting to other offenses is the move today. In fact, there is almost no need to eat hitter chalk on this small slate because the large majority of arms stink – so getting any ownership edge with our stacks is how we win today.
Over the last month, LHP Jesus Luzardo has been dreadful by all underlying metrics with a 5.70 xFIP, a 11% walk rate, with .300+ ISO marks to both sides of the plate and a 46% hard contact rate that is driven primarily by a 50% rate to right-handed batters.
Every single one of his offerings to right-handed batters the last month is getting hit hard with his fastball and curveball, which account for 35% of his pitch types, at .450+ ISO marks and the change/sinker which make up the rest at .300 ISO marks combined.
The Mets are by far my favorite stack on the slate today with Pete Alonso and Javier Baez my top two bats. Both hitters absolutely destroy the sinker from lefties with Big Pete sporting a decent .895 ISO and 58% HC rate with an average distance of 360 feet and 100 MPH+ exit velocity. Pete is going deep today. Book it.
The Mets are the road team here, so we get 9 innings of guaranteed at-bats and with switch hitters like Villar/Lindor at the top of the order it will make R/L splits once they get past Luzardo totally meaningless.
The other spot I love today is in Atlanta – and no, it’s not the Braves, it is the Washington Nationals. I have a feeling that Huascor Ynoa will be a popular pitching choice on this slate and considering his near 50% HC rates to both sides of the plate, this Nationals lineup has sneaky power appeal.
Over the last month, the Nationals bats have some staggering metrics against RHP with Juan Soto (.444 ISO and 57% HC rate) and Josh Bell (.341 ISO and 58% hard contact rates) leading the team. With Lane Thomas a cheap lead-off option with high fly ball tendencies and hard contact rates to boot – this top of the order Nationals stack could be the low-owned pivot off a potential chalky pitcher that vaults us up the leaderboards.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
Tonight’s MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate is not the best and it is one you should scale back bankroll accordingly on – but that does not mean we cannot get an edge in our GPP play and so staying locked into ownership in Discord will be key.
Lock in early, get some MLB DFS profit with us then kick back and watch the opening night of the NFL season!
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
