Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Slate
We have a split Thursday MLB DFS slate here today with 3 games at 2:15 PM EST and another 6 games at 6:40 PM EST.
While the focus of many will be on the start of the NFL Season tonight (and rightfully so) it could mean we get some distracted MLB DFS players and a chance to make some real money on two slates that actually have some decent tournament appeal.
The 3 game early slate to me is relatively cut and dry with two clear top pitching options in Dylan Bundy and Jack Flaherty who are both priced under $10K and offer us the chance to get two strong K arms with pricing that allows us to still stack a top offense.
Bundy has a 27% K rate and 13% SS rate this season and will face a Rangers lineup with a 27% K rate against RHP since the start of 2019.
Flaherty has not been himself in 2020, seeing his K rate drop from 29% to 24% this season but boy oh boy is this a get right spot for him against the Detroit Tigers. Flaherty’s strength is facing RHB, as his 35% K rate since last year demonstrates and the Tigers are projected to have at least 5 RHB in the lineup today with a lineup that is striking out at a 28.5% clip against RHP in 2020, the highest mark in baseball by more than 2%.
To me – you start with Bundy and Flaherty and move on to the bats.
With St. Louis/Detroit being just a 7 inning game as part of a doubleheader, that leaves basically two games to attack for an offense in my mind – and the best of the bunch is going to be the Angels against Kyle Gibson who is giving up a .200+ ISO mark to hitters from both sides of the plate.
Trout/Rendon/Ohtani are the clear place to start but the benefit of stacking this team is you have multiple cost-effective options depending on the line-up they roll out that make this stack affordable as a whole including Justin Upton, Matt Thais or Jared Walsh who are all under $3K on DraftKings.
The Astros look like they are finally getting healthy and with a lefty on the mound today, the right-handed heavy Astros make for a strong correlation with the Angles from a position perspective. We can opt to fill in the gaps around a core Angels stack with a high dollar SS/OF pairing of Carlos Correa/George Springer and we can mix and match value with plays like Aldeyms Diaz or Martin Maldonado who have the splits advantage and can fill in C/2B on this slate.
On these small slates with smaller prize pools/contest sizes – you can really make a strong profit playing it “straight” with the best arms/stacks and let others miss the cash line by “taking chances” which are best reserved for slates with far larger sizes/prizes. Lock in the two top arms, stack the Angels and mix in some Astros RHB to complete the build – then on to the Main!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate
The Main Slate is certainly more challenging as we have high dollar stacks, high dollar arms and the potential for rain in NYY/BAL which could eliminate one of the six games from the slate off the bat!
Now, while rain in NY is a clear threat, my goal today is to start my builds with Gerrit Cole ($10.3K) at home against the same Orioles team he just faced, striking out 10 on his way to 27 DK points. The only reason to fade Cole on this short slate is rain, and while we may end up needing to pivot – I suggest plugging him into your first builds as if he will play – it is far easier to swap down (without having to change anything else) then trying to move up to Cole if he does play, forcing you to free up salary elsewhere.
Chris Paddack is my preferred SP2, especially at his $8.3K price tag as this is an arm with demonstrated K ability, sporting a 26% K rate and 11.4% SS rate since 2019. The big metric that stands out to me is his 30% K rate against RHB and with the Giants projected to have 5 or more hitters from the right-side, it sets up for a strong match-up in San Diego.
Part of the reason I think we have to pay up for arms is because the low end pitching gross – specifically the Tampa Bay/Boston game and so with that in mind – why not game stack against the vaunted duo of Mike Kickham and Josh Fleming.
The Rays have the 5+ IRT that will likely garner some ownership, but with the Padres/Dodgers also on this slate – they may go a bit overlooked. Facing a low K lefty in Mike Kickham, the Rays become a cheap right-stack with Margot, Arozarena and Brosseau hitting in the top 4 of the order and Aroz/Brosseau have been mashing lefty pitching to start 2020 with combined .500+ ISO marks.
Boston is the sneaky stack on this slate with a sub 4 IRT, I doubt many are going to flock to this team but I think it makes a ton of sense for GPP’s. LHP Josh Fleming is a pitch to contact, low K arm and lest we forget, this Boston line-up is loaded with RHB with some serious pop.
In fact – the middle of this order – JD, Xander and Chavis all have .250+ ISO marks against LHP since the start of 2019. We can extend out stack to include our Catcher, with either Christian Vazquez/Kevin Plawecki and take it one step further and include Chavis in the L/L spot to go full on 5 man stack.
Fleming’s stuff is underwhelming and his pitch to contact approach, combined with a low SS rate and a 60% medium contact rate, tells me this is a spot where a full on stack could put up a crooked number with a string of base hits.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
I actually like these two slates today – and I think the smaller slates give us a chance to really zero in and focus on game theory and strategy in ways we do not typically on larger MLB slates.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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