Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday Slate Breakdown:
Well if we thought yesterday’s pitching pool was sparse, buckle up butternuts because this four gamer is going to have you wondering if using opener’s are a viable option. The reality is – this could be the last 4 game slate of the MLB season with multiple teams facing elimination.
When you are digging into the pitcher’s – the first stop here is to read the pitcher by pitcher breakdown from our Adam Strangis in Starting Rotation.
I think the way Adam has the arm ranked falls in line with my gut reaction and that is to start with Sixto Sanchez and Christian Javier.
Sixto gets the ball for the Marlins in a must win Game 3 and after watching the approach that Sandy Alcantara and Pablo Lopez took to keep the Braves off-balance, I think we have a path to success here for the electric right-hander. Alcantara and Lopez combined for 15 K’s against the Braves in the first two games of the series and Lopez specifically utilized his change-up in Game 2 to keep the Braves from sitting fastball – which is the exact approach Sixto tries to emulate.
Sanchez uses his change nearly 40% of the time against lefties – and the 3 LHB in this line-up, Freeman/Markakis/Albies all have sub .150 ISO marks against that pitch type. Against RHB Sixto relies still on his deep secondary stiff – using his slider/sinker – and that lack of reliance on the fastball, which is what the Braves feast on – gives him a profile that should generate swing and misses against this right-handed heavy team.
I think we saw the path for the Marlins arms here in the first two games – they are going to get you points through K’s and while they may give up runs – I think that on this slate you are willing to absorb that risk for any K upside we can get.
Christian Javier has a split profile that really stands out versus right-handed heavy teams – as his K rate of 29.5% against RHB is 7% higher than his mark against LHB. With Tommy LaStella banged up, the A’s today could roll out 7 right-handed hitters in the line-up and a projected starting 9 that has a K rate of 23.8% since 2019 against RHP.
The one thing to watch is the status of Zack Greinke – there are rumors heading into this game it could be a Greinke/Javier combination. Greinke is $9.5K on DraftKings so safe to say – I am ignoring that price point if he gets the start over Javier.
On the other side of this game – I think Frankie Montas has to be in consideration depending on how ownership shakes out. Montas has a bit of splits advantage as well with his success coming against RHB with a 29% K rate that is 8% higher and a .112 ISO that is far lower than his .272 mark to lefties. Montas has made 3 starts this season against Houston with 29, 15 and 3 DK points so the range of outcomes here today is well – vast.
Ultimately – I think these 3 arms represent your clearest path but much like we have argued each and every day – I think ownership has to play into your thought process. With the lack of options – if this is really the best we have to choose from, do we want to play any of these 3 arms as chalk?
One option – and this is a GPP play only – can we use a opener/long reliever combination to try and be different?
The Rays are going to use this combination today with Ryan Thompson and Ryan Yarbrough who combined will cost you $11.9K on DK. Now the Yankees bats are clearly scary but they also strikeout – ALOT – racking up 9 and 16 K’s in the last two games.
In those two games, Charlie Morton and Tyler Glasnow have given you 22 and 24 DK points each while they were followed by a handful of relievers who came in and got you positive points (4-5 DK points with the exception of Nick Anderson who racked up over 12 DK points in Game 2 as he struck out 4 in two innings.
So play back that game 2 script – Glasnow gets you 24 and Anderson gets you another 12 DK points – netting you 36 DK points from your starting duo. I am pretty sure we would all sign up for that now considering the options.
It may be too cute for some – but if you get two innings from Thompson and 5 DK points, and Yarbrough goes for 20-25 DK points – I really think you have a path here to letting your bats determine your cash position on a night where I just don’t see the pitching winning you this slate.
Going this off the walls route at pitcher means you are just loading up on bats and tonight – I think that may lead me to the late-night hammer with the Padres/Dodgers.
I would argue that the Padres arms are the only cross offs on this list today (Houston would be too for what its worth is Greinke is available) – so why not load up on the Dodgers tonight against a rookie left-hander and an over worked Padres pen.
The Padres have now made it through the Buehler/Kershaw 1-2 gauntlet and get some combination of Urias/Gonsolin/May – and this could be a spot where the raw talent of the Padres bats gets overlooked.
Game stacking the Dodgers/Padres gives you a build around high upside bats like Bellinger, Machado, Tatis and Betts and I think jamming in as many elite bats as you can today is the right path.
Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
I really think today is a day for GPP’s and a day to try and play game theory far more than the best plays.
Ownership will likely drive more decision making than anything else – because I could see the pitching being SO heavily concentrated.
If Sixto Sanchez for example becomes overwhelming chalk (and I could see it since hes the best arm available) – should we go for all the leverage with the Braves stack?
If one offense today is the place to stack – why not pivot with SO many bad arms to attack?
Let’s get weird today my friends.
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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